What Pass TD is

Passing touchdowns: scoring plays that came on a completed pass. It is scoring production through the air, and it leans on red-zone chances as much as on the quarterback.

Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.

In 2021 the Buccaneers led at 2.53; the league average was 1.54.

League snapshot — 2021

League leader

TB · 2.53

League average

1.54

Best to worst

1.82

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	TB	2.53	17
2	LAR	2.41	17
3	DAL	2.35	17
4	GB	2.29	17
5	LAC	2.24	17
6	KC	2.18	17
7	BUF	2.12	17
8	CIN	2.12	17
9	MIN	2	17
10	SEA	1.76	17
11	NO	1.71	17
12	ARI	1.59	17
13	IND	1.59	17
14	SF	1.53	17
15	NE	1.41	17
16	DET	1.35	17
17	LV	1.35	17
18	PIT	1.35	17
19	TEN	1.29	17
20	BAL	1.24	17
21	CLE	1.24	17
22	HOU	1.24	17
23	MIA	1.24	17
24	WAS	1.24	17
25	ATL	1.18	17
26	DEN	1.18	17
27	NYJ	1.18	17
28	PHI	1.18	17
29	CHI	0.94	17
30	NYG	0.88	17
31	CAR	0.82	17
32	JAX	0.71	17

At a glance — 2021

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

TB · 2.53

League laggard

JAX · 0.71

League average

1.54

Spread (max − min)

1.82

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	TB	2.53	0.99	100%
2	LAR	2.41	0.87	96.8%
3	DAL	2.35	0.81	93.5%
4	GB	2.29	0.75	90.3%
5	LAC	2.24	0.69	87.1%
6	KC	2.18	0.63	83.9%
7	BUF	2.12	0.57	80.6%
8	CIN	2.12	0.57	77.4%
9	MIN	2	0.46	74.2%
10	SEA	1.76	0.22	71%
11	NO	1.71	0.16	67.7%
12	ARI	1.59	0.04	64.5%
13	IND	1.59	0.04	61.3%
14	SF	1.53	-0.01	58.1%
15	NE	1.41	-0.13	54.8%
16	DET	1.35	-0.19	51.6%
17	LV	1.35	-0.19	48.4%
18	PIT	1.35	-0.19	45.2%
19	TEN	1.29	-0.25	41.9%
20	BAL	1.24	-0.31	38.7%
21	CLE	1.24	-0.31	35.5%
22	HOU	1.24	-0.31	32.3%
23	MIA	1.24	-0.31	29%
24	WAS	1.24	-0.31	25.8%
25	ATL	1.18	-0.37	22.6%
26	DEN	1.18	-0.37	19.4%
27	NYJ	1.18	-0.37	16.1%
28	PHI	1.18	-0.37	12.9%
29	CHI	0.94	-0.60	9.7%
30	NYG	0.88	-0.66	6.5%
31	CAR	0.82	-0.72	3.2%
32	JAX	0.71	-0.84	0%

Does Pass TD matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 869–709–37 ATS (55.1%) across 2020–2025, #70 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2020 (144–110, 56.7%); its worst 2023 (134–124, 51.9%).

For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	144–110–2	56.7%
2021	272	153–117–2	56.7%
2022	271	145–119–7	54.9%
2023	272	134–124–14	51.9%
2024	272	146–117–9	55.5%
2025	272	147–122–3	54.6%

Pass TD in 2021 vs 2020

Buccaneers lead at 2.53 — they ranked #2 last year. Jaguars are last at 0.71 — #20 last year.

The league average is 1.54, down 0.16 from 1.70 last year.

Biggest riser: Rams, #26 → #2. Biggest faller: Texans, #8 → #22.

Spread between first and last: 1.82; 20 teams are within 0.50 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2021 vs 2020

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

LAR · +1.16

Biggest faller

JAX · −0.86

Most consistent

SF · −0.03

League trend 2021 vs 2020

▼ -0.16

Rank	Team	2021	2020	Δ
1	LAR	2.41	1.25	+1.16
2	CIN	2.12	1.19	+0.93
3	DAL	2.35	1.56	+0.79
4	NE	1.41	0.75	+0.66
5	LAC	2.24	1.94	+0.30
6	WAS	1.24	1	+0.24
7	NYJ	1.18	1	+0.18
8	NYG	0.88	0.75	+0.13
9	IND	1.59	1.50	+0.09
10	SF	1.53	1.56	−0.03
11	NO	1.71	1.75	−0.04
12	TB	2.53	2.63	−0.10
13	ARI	1.59	1.69	−0.10
14	DEN	1.18	1.31	−0.14
15	CAR	0.82	1	−0.18
16	MIN	2	2.19	−0.19
17	PHI	1.18	1.38	−0.20
18	MIA	1.24	1.50	−0.26
19	KC	2.18	2.50	−0.32
20	DET	1.35	1.69	−0.33
21	BUF	2.12	2.50	−0.38
22	LV	1.35	1.75	−0.40
23	BAL	1.24	1.69	−0.45
24	CLE	1.24	1.69	−0.45
25	ATL	1.18	1.69	−0.51
26	CHI	0.94	1.63	−0.68
27	GB	2.29	3	−0.71
28	SEA	1.76	2.50	−0.74
29	TEN	1.29	2.06	−0.77
30	HOU	1.24	2.06	−0.83
31	PIT	1.35	2.19	−0.83
32	JAX	0.71	1.56	−0.86

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

GB · 1.99

Multi-year laggard

NYG · 1.06

Biggest improver

CAR · +0.19/yr

Biggest decliner

TB · −0.24/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	GB	1.99	−0.16	3	2.29	1.59	1.88	1.65	1.53	2
2	CIN	1.99	+0.12	1.19	2.12	2.19	1.59	2.53	2.12	2.20
3	KC	1.98	−0.12	2.50	2.18	2.41	1.65	1.53	1.35	2.25
4	BUF	1.91	−0.16	2.50	2.12	2.19	1.71	1.76	1.71	1.40
5	DET	1.89	+0.15	1.69	1.35	1.71	1.76	2.29	2.06	2.40
6	TB	1.87	−0.24	2.63	2.53	1.53	1.65	2.41	1.53	0.80
7	SF	1.81	+0.13	1.56	1.53	1.76	1.94	1.35	1.94	2.60
8	DAL	1.81	−0.02	1.56	2.35	1.65	2.12	1.35	1.82	1.80
9	SEA	1.76	−0.07	2.50	1.76	1.76	1.35	1.24	1.47	2.20
10	LAR	1.70	+0.09	1.25	2.41	0.94	1.53	1.29	2.71	1.80
11	MIN	1.69	−0.18	2.19	2	1.76	1.76	2.06	1.06	1
12	LAC	1.57	−0.16	1.94	2.24	1.53	1.41	1.35	1.53	1
13	BAL	1.57	+0.05	1.69	1.24	1.12	1.59	2.41	1.35	1.60
14	NO	1.52	−0.04	1.75	1.71	1.41	1.65	1.24	1.12	1.80
15	LV	1.52	+0.04	1.75	1.35	1.65	1.18	1.12	1.18	2.40
16	ARI	1.44	+0.03	1.69	1.59	1	1.06	1.24	1.71	1.80
17	PHI	1.43	+0.05	1.38	1.18	1.47	1.41	1.41	1.53	1.60
18	JAX	1.41	+0.11	1.56	0.71	1.47	1.29	1.12	1.71	2
19	HOU	1.41	−0.08	2.06	1.24	1.18	1.59	1.18	1.41	1.20
20	PIT	1.40	+0.01	2.19	1.35	0.71	0.76	1.24	1.53	2
21	DEN	1.38	+0.03	1.31	1.18	1.06	1.65	1.76	1.47	1.20
22	WAS	1.35	+0.07	1	1.24	1.41	1.41	1.71	1.12	1.60
23	MIA	1.33	−0.13	1.50	1.24	1.76	1.76	1.29	1.35	0.40
24	CLE	1.27	−0.05	1.69	1.24	1.12	1.41	1.12	0.94	1.40
25	NE	1.24	+0.12	0.75	1.41	1.12	0.94	1.06	1.82	1.60
26	CAR	1.21	+0.19	1	0.82	0.94	0.76	1.29	1.41	2.25
27	CHI	1.20	−0.04	1.63	0.94	1.12	1.12	1.18	1.65	0.80
28	IND	1.20	−0.10	1.50	1.59	1	1.06	1.18	1.47	0.60
29	ATL	1.15	−0.09	1.69	1.18	1	1	1.24	1.12	0.80
30	TEN	1.13	−0.17	2.06	1.29	0.94	0.82	1.29	0.88	0.60
31	NYJ	1.09	+0.03	1	1.18	0.88	0.65	1.82	0.88	1.20
32	NYG	1.06	+0.13	0.75	0.88	1	0.88	0.88	1.24	1.80

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
TB	2.63	2.53	1.53	1.65	2.41	1.53	0.80
LAR	1.25	2.41	0.94	1.53	1.29	2.71	1.80
DAL	1.56	2.35	1.65	2.12	1.35	1.82	1.80
GB	3	2.29	1.59	1.88	1.65	1.53	2
LAC	1.94	2.24	1.53	1.41	1.35	1.53	1
KC	2.50	2.18	2.41	1.65	1.53	1.35	2.25
BUF	2.50	2.12	2.19	1.71	1.76	1.71	1.40
CIN	1.19	2.12	2.19	1.59	2.53	2.12	2.20
MIN	2.19	2	1.76	1.76	2.06	1.06	1
SEA	2.50	1.76	1.76	1.35	1.24	1.47	2.20
NO	1.75	1.71	1.41	1.65	1.24	1.12	1.80
ARI	1.69	1.59	1	1.06	1.24	1.71	1.80
IND	1.50	1.59	1	1.06	1.18	1.47	0.60
SF	1.56	1.53	1.76	1.94	1.35	1.94	2.60
NE	0.75	1.41	1.12	0.94	1.06	1.82	1.60
DET	1.69	1.35	1.71	1.76	2.29	2.06	2.40
LV	1.75	1.35	1.65	1.18	1.12	1.18	2.40
PIT	2.19	1.35	0.71	0.76	1.24	1.53	2
TEN	2.06	1.29	0.94	0.82	1.29	0.88	0.60
BAL	1.69	1.24	1.12	1.59	2.41	1.35	1.60
CLE	1.69	1.24	1.12	1.41	1.12	0.94	1.40
HOU	2.06	1.24	1.18	1.59	1.18	1.41	1.20
MIA	1.50	1.24	1.76	1.76	1.29	1.35	0.40
WAS	1	1.24	1.41	1.41	1.71	1.12	1.60
ATL	1.69	1.18	1	1	1.24	1.12	0.80
DEN	1.31	1.18	1.06	1.65	1.76	1.47	1.20
NYJ	1	1.18	0.88	0.65	1.82	0.88	1.20
PHI	1.38	1.18	1.47	1.41	1.41	1.53	1.60
CHI	1.63	0.94	1.12	1.12	1.18	1.65	0.80
NYG	0.75	0.88	1	0.88	0.88	1.24	1.80
CAR	1	0.82	0.94	0.76	1.29	1.41	2.25
JAX	1.56	0.71	1.47	1.29	1.12	1.71	2

Pass TD since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Chiefs (3.13), 2019 Ravens (2.31), 2020 Packers (3), 2021 Buccaneers (2.53).

The best season on record is Chiefs 2018 at 3.13; the worst Jaguars 2021 at 0.71.

The league average has fallen from 1.65 in 2018 to 1.54 in 2021.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2021.

About this stat

Stat ID: off_passing_pass_td
Side: offensive
Family: Passing
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: count
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.