Defensive: Conversions · Third down success (allowed)
Atlanta Falcons — Third down success (allowed), 2026
- Value5.80
- Rank#20 of 32
- League average5.14
- Rank in 2025#19 of 32
What Third down success (allowed) is
Third downs opponents converted against this defense. The count behind the rate.
Lower is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.
Through Week 6 of 2026, the Bears lead at 2.60; the league average is 5.14.
League snapshot — 2026
All 32 teams, lower is better.
At a glance — 2026
Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.
All teams — 2026
| Rank | Team | Value | Δ vs avg | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI | 2.60 | -2.54 | 100% |
| 2 | MIN | 3 | -2.14 | 96.8% |
| 3 | IND | 3.60 | -1.54 | 93.5% |
| 4 | LAC | 4 | -1.14 | 90.3% |
| 5 | LAR | 4 | -1.14 | 87.1% |
| 6 | JAX | 4.20 | -0.94 | 83.9% |
| 7 | NYJ | 4.20 | -0.94 | 80.6% |
| 8 | PIT | 4.20 | -0.94 | 77.4% |
| 9 | TB | 4.20 | -0.94 | 74.2% |
| 10 | NE | 4.60 | -0.54 | 71% |
| 11 | SEA | 4.60 | -0.54 | 67.7% |
| 12 | ARI | 5 | -0.14 | 64.5% |
| 13 | HOU | 5 | -0.14 | 61.3% |
| 14 | TEN | 5 | -0.14 | 58.1% |
| 15 | NYG | 5.20 | 0.06 | 54.8% |
| 16 | KC | 5.25 | 0.11 | 51.6% |
| 17 | BAL | 5.40 | 0.26 | 48.4% |
| 18 | LV | 5.40 | 0.26 | 45.2% |
| 19 | CAR | 5.75 | 0.61 | 41.9% |
| 20 | ATL | 5.80 | 0.66 | 38.7% |
| 21 | BUF | 5.80 | 0.66 | 35.5% |
| 22 | CIN | 5.80 | 0.66 | 32.3% |
| 23 | CLE | 5.80 | 0.66 | 29% |
| 24 | NO | 5.80 | 0.66 | 25.8% |
| 25 | PHI | 5.80 | 0.66 | 22.6% |
| 26 | SF | 5.80 | 0.66 | 19.4% |
| 27 | DAL | 6 | 0.86 | 16.1% |
| 28 | WAS | 6 | 0.86 | 12.9% |
| 29 | MIA | 6.20 | 1.06 | 9.7% |
| 30 | DEN | 6.60 | 1.46 | 6.5% |
| 31 | GB | 6.60 | 1.46 | 3.2% |
| 32 | DET | 7.20 | 2.06 | 0% |
Does Third down success (allowed) matter against the spread?
Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 818–760–37 ATS (51.8%) across 2020–2025, #177 of 296 ranked.
Its best season was 2020 (136–118, 53.5%); its worst 2023 (121–137, 46.9%).
For picks, this is noise. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.
| Season | Games | ATS record | ATS % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 256 | 136–118–2 | 53.5% |
| 2021 | 272 | 144–126–2 | 53.3% |
| 2022 | 271 | 140–124–7 | 53.0% |
| 2023 | 272 | 121–137–14 | 46.9% |
| 2024 | 272 | 139–124–9 | 52.9% |
| 2025 | 272 | 138–131–3 | 51.3% |
Third down success (allowed) in 2026 vs 2025
Bears lead at 2.60 — they ranked #6 last year. Lions are last at 7.20 — #9 last year.
The league average is 5.14, up 0.11 from 5.02 last year.
Biggest riser: Colts, #26 → #3. Biggest faller: Lions, #9 → #32.
Spread between first and last: 4.60; 23 teams are within 1.04 of the average.
Year-over-year — 2026 vs 2025
Biggest movers from last season.
YoY by team — 2026 vs 2025
| Rank | Team | 2026 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET | 7.20 | 4.65 | +2.55 |
| 2 | DEN | 6.60 | 4.71 | +1.89 |
| 3 | GB | 6.60 | 5.18 | +1.42 |
| 4 | NO | 5.80 | 4.41 | +1.39 |
| 5 | MIA | 6.20 | 4.94 | +1.26 |
| 6 | SF | 5.80 | 4.59 | +1.21 |
| 7 | CLE | 5.80 | 4.88 | +0.92 |
| 8 | WAS | 6 | 5.24 | +0.76 |
| 9 | BUF | 5.80 | 5.06 | +0.74 |
| 10 | ATL | 5.80 | 5.12 | +0.68 |
| 11 | NYG | 5.20 | 4.59 | +0.61 |
| 12 | CIN | 5.80 | 5.24 | +0.56 |
| 13 | DAL | 6 | 5.59 | +0.41 |
| 14 | BAL | 5.40 | 5.12 | +0.28 |
| 15 | PHI | 5.80 | 5.53 | +0.27 |
| 16 | HOU | 5 | 4.82 | +0.18 |
| 17 | TEN | 5 | 4.88 | +0.12 |
| 18 | NE | 4.60 | 4.53 | +0.07 |
| 19 | SEA | 4.60 | 4.53 | +0.07 |
| 20 | LAC | 4 | 4.12 | −0.12 |
| 21 | CAR | 5.75 | 5.88 | −0.13 |
| 22 | ARI | 5 | 5.29 | −0.29 |
| 23 | TB | 4.20 | 4.65 | −0.45 |
| 24 | KC | 5.25 | 5.76 | −0.51 |
| 25 | NYJ | 4.20 | 4.76 | −0.56 |
| 26 | LAR | 4 | 4.82 | −0.82 |
| 27 | LV | 5.40 | 6.24 | −0.84 |
| 28 | JAX | 4.20 | 5.18 | −0.98 |
| 29 | MIN | 3 | 4.53 | −1.53 |
| 30 | PIT | 4.20 | 5.88 | −1.68 |
| 31 | IND | 3.60 | 5.47 | −1.87 |
| 32 | CHI | 2.60 | 4.59 | −1.99 |
Multi-year context
7-year window (2020–2026)
Multi-year averages
| Rank | Team | Avg | Slope/yr | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | 4.56 | −0.19 | 4.63 | 4.59 | 4.94 | 5.65 | 4.59 | 4.53 | 3 |
| 2 | CHI | 4.82 | −0.33 | 5 | 5.06 | 5.88 | 5.82 | 4.76 | 4.59 | 2.60 |
| 3 | BAL | 4.84 | +0.24 | 4.13 | 4.18 | 4.35 | 5.41 | 5.29 | 5.12 | 5.40 |
| 4 | LAR | 4.85 | −0.11 | 4.63 | 5.47 | 4.94 | 5.18 | 4.94 | 4.82 | 4 |
| 5 | BUF | 4.94 | +0.21 | 4.75 | 3.94 | 4.88 | 4.88 | 5.29 | 5.06 | 5.80 |
| 6 | TB | 4.95 | −0.16 | 5.13 | 5.18 | 5.29 | 5.47 | 4.71 | 4.65 | 4.20 |
| 7 | NE | 4.97 | −0.03 | 4.75 | 4.65 | 5.71 | 5.12 | 5.47 | 4.53 | 4.60 |
| 8 | LAC | 5.00 | −0.33 | 5.63 | 6.35 | 4.59 | 5.53 | 4.76 | 4.12 | 4 |
| 9 | PIT | 5.02 | −0.09 | 5.25 | 5.06 | 5.12 | 5.41 | 4.24 | 5.88 | 4.20 |
| 10 | NYG | 5.03 | −0.08 | 5.69 | 5.41 | 4.24 | 4.82 | 5.24 | 4.59 | 5.20 |
| 11 | CLE | 5.03 | −0.01 | 5.63 | 5.12 | 5.06 | 3.94 | 4.76 | 4.88 | 5.80 |
| 12 | MIA | 5.07 | +0.18 | 3.63 | 5.59 | 5.71 | 5 | 4.41 | 4.94 | 6.20 |
| 13 | HOU | 5.12 | −0.16 | 6 | 5.29 | 5.12 | 4.94 | 4.65 | 4.82 | 5 |
| 14 | GB | 5.13 | +0.23 | 4.63 | 5.12 | 4.29 | 5.47 | 4.65 | 5.18 | 6.60 |
| 15 | IND | 5.14 | −0.13 | 5.44 | 5.06 | 5 | 5.29 | 6.12 | 5.47 | 3.60 |
| 16 | SF | 5.15 | +0.10 | 4.50 | 5.35 | 5.18 | 5.18 | 5.47 | 4.59 | 5.80 |
| 17 | NYJ | 5.16 | −0.26 | 5.69 | 5.82 | 5.47 | 5.29 | 4.88 | 4.76 | 4.20 |
| 18 | NO | 5.17 | +0.02 | 4.94 | 5.24 | 5.76 | 4.65 | 5.41 | 4.41 | 5.80 |
| 19 | ARI | 5.18 | +0.04 | 5.06 | 4.71 | 5.12 | 5.71 | 5.35 | 5.29 | 5 |
| 20 | KC | 5.19 | +0.12 | 4.88 | 4.76 | 5.18 | 4.94 | 5.53 | 5.76 | 5.25 |
| 21 | DEN | 5.21 | +0.05 | 5.56 | 5.94 | 4.41 | 4 | 5.24 | 4.71 | 6.60 |
| 22 | TEN | 5.22 | −0.16 | 6.94 | 4.59 | 4.53 | 5.29 | 5.29 | 4.88 | 5 |
| 23 | DET | 5.23 | +0.03 | 5.75 | 5.41 | 5.53 | 4.47 | 3.59 | 4.65 | 7.20 |
| 24 | DAL | 5.23 | +0.03 | 6.25 | 4.47 | 5.18 | 4.71 | 4.41 | 5.59 | 6 |
| 25 | JAX | 5.26 | −0.16 | 5.44 | 5.65 | 5.59 | 4.94 | 5.82 | 5.18 | 4.20 |
| 26 | WAS | 5.32 | +0.02 | 5.19 | 6.53 | 4 | 5.53 | 4.76 | 5.24 | 6 |
| 27 | CIN | 5.40 | −0.01 | 5.69 | 5.47 | 5.31 | 5.18 | 5.12 | 5.24 | 5.80 |
| 28 | SEA | 5.41 | −0.29 | 6.63 | 5.18 | 5.65 | 6.29 | 5 | 4.53 | 4.60 |
| 29 | PHI | 5.43 | +0.04 | 5.13 | 5.59 | 5.12 | 6.47 | 4.41 | 5.53 | 5.80 |
| 30 | ATL | 5.48 | −0.01 | 5.06 | 6.24 | 5.94 | 4.59 | 5.65 | 5.12 | 5.80 |
| 31 | LV | 5.64 | −0.04 | 6.25 | 5.47 | 5.24 | 5.65 | 5.24 | 6.24 | 5.40 |
| 32 | CAR | 5.72 | +0.05 | 6.25 | 4.88 | 5.59 | 5.12 | 6.59 | 5.88 | 5.75 |
Multi-year heatmap
32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.
| Team | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 5 | 5.06 | 5.88 | 5.82 | 4.76 | 4.59 | 2.60 |
| MIN | 4.63 | 4.59 | 4.94 | 5.65 | 4.59 | 4.53 | 3 |
| IND | 5.44 | 5.06 | 5 | 5.29 | 6.12 | 5.47 | 3.60 |
| LAC | 5.63 | 6.35 | 4.59 | 5.53 | 4.76 | 4.12 | 4 |
| LAR | 4.63 | 5.47 | 4.94 | 5.18 | 4.94 | 4.82 | 4 |
| JAX | 5.44 | 5.65 | 5.59 | 4.94 | 5.82 | 5.18 | 4.20 |
| NYJ | 5.69 | 5.82 | 5.47 | 5.29 | 4.88 | 4.76 | 4.20 |
| PIT | 5.25 | 5.06 | 5.12 | 5.41 | 4.24 | 5.88 | 4.20 |
| TB | 5.13 | 5.18 | 5.29 | 5.47 | 4.71 | 4.65 | 4.20 |
| NE | 4.75 | 4.65 | 5.71 | 5.12 | 5.47 | 4.53 | 4.60 |
| SEA | 6.63 | 5.18 | 5.65 | 6.29 | 5 | 4.53 | 4.60 |
| ARI | 5.06 | 4.71 | 5.12 | 5.71 | 5.35 | 5.29 | 5 |
| HOU | 6 | 5.29 | 5.12 | 4.94 | 4.65 | 4.82 | 5 |
| TEN | 6.94 | 4.59 | 4.53 | 5.29 | 5.29 | 4.88 | 5 |
| NYG | 5.69 | 5.41 | 4.24 | 4.82 | 5.24 | 4.59 | 5.20 |
| KC | 4.88 | 4.76 | 5.18 | 4.94 | 5.53 | 5.76 | 5.25 |
| BAL | 4.13 | 4.18 | 4.35 | 5.41 | 5.29 | 5.12 | 5.40 |
| LV | 6.25 | 5.47 | 5.24 | 5.65 | 5.24 | 6.24 | 5.40 |
| CAR | 6.25 | 4.88 | 5.59 | 5.12 | 6.59 | 5.88 | 5.75 |
| ATL | 5.06 | 6.24 | 5.94 | 4.59 | 5.65 | 5.12 | 5.80 |
| BUF | 4.75 | 3.94 | 4.88 | 4.88 | 5.29 | 5.06 | 5.80 |
| CIN | 5.69 | 5.47 | 5.31 | 5.18 | 5.12 | 5.24 | 5.80 |
| CLE | 5.63 | 5.12 | 5.06 | 3.94 | 4.76 | 4.88 | 5.80 |
| NO | 4.94 | 5.24 | 5.76 | 4.65 | 5.41 | 4.41 | 5.80 |
| PHI | 5.13 | 5.59 | 5.12 | 6.47 | 4.41 | 5.53 | 5.80 |
| SF | 4.50 | 5.35 | 5.18 | 5.18 | 5.47 | 4.59 | 5.80 |
| DAL | 6.25 | 4.47 | 5.18 | 4.71 | 4.41 | 5.59 | 6 |
| WAS | 5.19 | 6.53 | 4 | 5.53 | 4.76 | 5.24 | 6 |
| MIA | 3.63 | 5.59 | 5.71 | 5 | 4.41 | 4.94 | 6.20 |
| DEN | 5.56 | 5.94 | 4.41 | 4 | 5.24 | 4.71 | 6.60 |
| GB | 4.63 | 5.12 | 4.29 | 5.47 | 4.65 | 5.18 | 6.60 |
| DET | 5.75 | 5.41 | 5.53 | 4.47 | 3.59 | 4.65 | 7.20 |
Third down success (allowed) since 2018
Leaders since 2018: 2018 Vikings (3.63), 2019 Patriots (2.94), 2020 Dolphins (3.63), 2021 Bills (3.94), 2022 Commanders (4), 2023 Browns (3.94), 2024 Lions (3.59), 2025 Chargers (4.12), 2026 Bears (2.60).
The best season on record is Bears 2026 at 2.60; the worst Lions 2026 at 7.20.
Distribution
How the 32 teams cluster for 2026.
About this stat
- Stat ID
- def_team_conversions_third_down_success
- Side
- defensive
- Family
- Conversions
- Data source
- P + N
- Polarity
- lower is better
- Display grain
- count
- Algorithm eligibility
- Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.