MIA at MIN
What the site's algorithm makes of it
Power ratings as stored for week 4, 2026 — the set this week's picks were made from.
It makes MIN the better side by 10.5.
Members see which side it is taking this week, and by how much it disagrees with the market.
Opened MIN -11.5
Now MIN -10 — MIN favoured by 1.5 less since first recorded
Line history: MIN -11.5 ×4 (Sep 29–Sep 29) · MIN -10 ×30 (Oct 4–Oct 13)
Scoring offense
Percentile against the league. Outward is better; the inner ring is the median.
Scoring defense
Percentile against the league. Outward is better; the inner ring is the median.
Passing
Bubble size is touchdowns.
Rushing
Bubble size is touchdowns.
Drives
Longer is better. 50 is the league median.
Conversions
Longer is better. 50 is the league median.
Betting record — 2026
| Split | MIA | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | SU 0-5 · ATS 1-3-1 · O/U 2-3 | SU 5-0 · ATS 4-1 · O/U 1-4 |
| At home | SU 0-2 · ATS 0-1-1 · O/U 1-1 | SU 2-0 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 1-1 |
| On the road | SU 0-3 · ATS 1-2 · O/U 1-2 | SU 3-0 · ATS 3-0 · O/U 0-3 |
| As favourite | SU 4-0 · ATS 3-1 · O/U 1-3 | |
| As underdog | SU 0-5 · ATS 1-3-1 · O/U 2-3 | SU 1-0 · ATS 1-0 · O/U 0-1 |
| In division | SU 2-0 · ATS 2-0 · O/U 1-1 | |
| Out of division | SU 0-5 · ATS 1-3-1 · O/U 2-3 | SU 3-0 · ATS 2-1 · O/U 0-3 |
| Pick'em (±3) | SU 0-1 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 0-1 | SU 3-0 · ATS 3-0 · O/U 1-2 |
| Favoured by 7+ | SU 1-0 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 0-1 | |
| Dog by 3-7 | SU 1-0 · ATS 1-0 · O/U 0-1 | |
| Dog by 7+ | SU 0-4 · ATS 1-2-1 · O/U 2-2 |
SU = straight up · ATS = against the spread · O/U = over-under. Records count GAMES PLAYED.
Season to date — 2026
| Metric | MIA | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 1st downs | ||
| Total | 76 | 76 |
| Passing | 35 | 42 |
| Rushing | 34 | 29 |
| From penalties | 7 | 4 |
| Efficiency | ||
| Third down | 27 of 63 | 31 of 76 |
| Fourth down | 2 of 7 | 3 of 3 |
| Volume | ||
| Total yards | 1,482 | 1,518 |
| Total plays | 274 | 298 |
| Yards per play | 5.4 | 5.1 |
| Drives | 47 | 56 |
| Passing | ||
| Passing yards | 849 | 938 |
| Completions | 73-145 | 92-156 |
| Yards per pass | 5.9 | 6.0 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 5 |
| Interceptions | 4 | 2 |
| Sacks (yards lost) | 14 (81) | 15 (103) |
| Rushing | ||
| Rushing yards | 633 | 580 |
| Attempts | 130 | 152 |
| Yards per rush | 4.9 | 3.8 |
| Touchdowns | 5 | 3 |
| Red zone | ||
| Scores | 6 of 14 | 6 of 15 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties (yards) | 38 (260) | 30 (250) |
| Turnovers | ||
| Total | 8 | 4 |
| Fumbles lost | 4 | 2 |
| Interceptions thrown | 4 | 2 |
Full-season totals from the 2026 season, database N.
When these two have met
- 2026 wk 4 MIA 10, MIN 15 MIN won
- 2022 wk 6 MIN 24, MIA 16 MIN won
- 2018 wk 15 MIA 17, MIN 41 MIN won
Before the game
- Biggest mismatch: MIN's offense (T-1st) against MIA's defense (T-24th) in fumbles lost.
The mismatch
- MIN's offense ranks T-1st in fumbles lost; MIA's defense ranks T-24th against it.
- MIA's offense ranks 8th in yards per completion; MIN's defense ranks 28th against it.
- MIN's offense ranks 17th in points per drive; MIA's defense ranks 32nd against it.
- MIN's offense ranks 15th in touchdown rate per pass; MIA's defense ranks 30th against it.
- MIA's offense ranks 16th in yards after catch; MIN's defense ranks 30th against it.
- MIA's offense ranks 9th in average drive start (yards to go); MIN's defense ranks 13th against it.
Form and history
- Week 4, 2026: MIA (0 wins, 3 losses), on a 3-game losing streak at MIN (3 wins, 0 losses), on a 3-game winning streak.
- Head-to-head: MIN leads MIA 2–0 in games since 2018.
Starters and rest
- Projected starters: Malik Willis for MIA, Kyler Murray for MIN.
Final — the recap is on this game's result page.