HOU at TEN
What the site's algorithm makes of it
Power ratings as stored for week 5, 2026 — the set this week's picks were made from.
It makes TEN the better side by 2.1.
Members see which side it is taking this week, and by how much it disagrees with the market.
Opened HOU -6.5
Now HOU -7 — HOU favoured by 0.5 more since first recorded
Line history: HOU -6.5 ×7 (Oct 4–Oct 5) · HOU -7 ×2 (Oct 6–Oct 6)
Scoring offense
Percentile against the league. Outward is better; the inner ring is the median.
Scoring defense
Percentile against the league. Outward is better; the inner ring is the median.
Passing
Bubble size is touchdowns.
Rushing
Bubble size is touchdowns.
Drives
Longer is better. 50 is the league median.
Conversions
Longer is better. 50 is the league median.
Betting record — 2026
| Split | HOU | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | SU 0-4 · ATS 0-4 · O/U 2-2 | SU 0-4 · ATS 2-2 · O/U 1-3 |
| At home | SU 0-3 · ATS 0-3 · O/U 2-1 | SU 0-2 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 1-1 |
| On the road | SU 0-1 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 0-1 | SU 0-2 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 0-2 |
| As favourite | SU 0-3 · ATS 0-3 · O/U 1-2 | SU 0-1 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 0-1 |
| As underdog | SU 0-1 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 1-0 | SU 0-3 · ATS 2-1 · O/U 1-2 |
| In division | SU 0-1 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 0-1 | |
| Out of division | SU 0-3 · ATS 0-3 · O/U 2-1 | SU 0-4 · ATS 2-2 · O/U 1-3 |
| Pick'em (±3) | SU 0-4 · ATS 0-4 · O/U 2-2 | SU 0-2 · ATS 0-2 · O/U 0-2 |
| Dog by 7+ | SU 0-2 · ATS 2-0 · O/U 1-1 |
SU = straight up · ATS = against the spread · O/U = over-under. Records count GAMES PLAYED.
Season to date — 2026
| Metric | HOU | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| 1st downs | ||
| Total | 77 | 63 |
| Passing | 48 | 35 |
| Rushing | 22 | 21 |
| From penalties | 6 | 4 |
| Efficiency | ||
| Third down | 19 of 53 | 17 of 48 |
| Fourth down | 2 of 7 | 2 of 4 |
| Volume | ||
| Total yards | 1,457 | 1,082 |
| Total plays | 250 | 216 |
| Yards per play | 5.8 | 5.0 |
| Drives | 45 | 40 |
| Passing | ||
| Passing yards | 1,141 | 726 |
| Completions | 93-164 | 75-126 |
| Yards per pass | 7.0 | 5.8 |
| Touchdowns | 5 | 3 |
| Interceptions | 0 | 2 |
| Sacks (yards lost) | 12 (82) | 6 (37) |
| Rushing | ||
| Rushing yards | 316 | 356 |
| Attempts | 90 | 90 |
| Yards per rush | 3.5 | 4.0 |
| Touchdowns | 4 | 3 |
| Red zone | ||
| Scores | 8 of 16 | 6 of 12 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties (yards) | 31 (293) | 23 (165) |
| Turnovers | ||
| Total | 2 | 3 |
| Fumbles lost | 2 | 3 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 2 |
Full-season totals from the 2026 season, database N.
When these two have met
- 2025 wk 11 HOU 16, TEN 13 HOU won
- 2025 wk 4 TEN 0, HOU 26 HOU won
- 2024 wk 18 HOU 23, TEN 14 HOU won
- 2024 wk 12 TEN 32, HOU 27 TEN won
- 2023 wk 17 TEN 3, HOU 26 HOU won
- 2023 wk 15 HOU 19, TEN 16 HOU won
Before the game
- Biggest mismatch: HOU's offense (T-4th) against TEN's defense (29th) in share of drives ending in a turnover.
The mismatch
- HOU's offense ranks T-4th in share of drives ending in a turnover; TEN's defense ranks 29th against it.
- HOU's offense ranks T-1st in interception rate (thrown); TEN's defense ranks 20th against it.
- TEN's offense ranks 12th in interception rate (thrown); HOU's defense ranks T-28th against it.
- TEN's offense ranks 11th in share of drives ending in a turnover; HOU's defense ranks 26th against it.
- HOU's offense ranks 13th in yards per pass attempt; TEN's defense ranks 27th against it.
- TEN's offense ranks T-15th in rushing touchdowns; HOU's defense ranks T-24th against it.
Form and history
- Week 5, 2026: HOU (0 wins, 4 losses), on a 4-game losing streak at TEN (0 wins, 4 losses), on a 4-game losing streak.
- Head-to-head: HOU leads TEN 9–7 in games since 2018.
Starters and rest
- Projected starters: C.J. Stroud for HOU, Cam Ward for TEN.