DEN at LAC
What the site's algorithm makes of it
Power ratings as stored for week 5, 2026 — the set this week's picks were made from.
It makes LAC the better side by 3.3.
Members see which side it is taking this week, and by how much it disagrees with the market.
Opened DEN -3.5
Now DEN -3.5
Line history: DEN -3.5 ×9 (Oct 4–Oct 6)
Scoring offense
Percentile against the league. Outward is better; the inner ring is the median.
Scoring defense
Percentile against the league. Outward is better; the inner ring is the median.
Passing
Bubble size is touchdowns.
Rushing
Bubble size is touchdowns.
Drives
Longer is better. 50 is the league median.
Conversions
Longer is better. 50 is the league median.
Betting record — 2026
| Split | DEN | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | SU 2-2 · ATS 2-2 · O/U 1-3 | SU 0-4 · ATS 0-3-1 · O/U 1-3 |
| At home | SU 2-0 · ATS 2-0 · O/U 1-1 | SU 0-2 · ATS 0-2 · O/U 0-2 |
| On the road | SU 0-2 · ATS 0-2 · O/U 0-2 | SU 0-2 · ATS 0-1-1 · O/U 1-1 |
| As favourite | SU 2-0 · ATS 2-0 · O/U 1-1 | SU 0-2 · ATS 0-2 · O/U 0-2 |
| As underdog | SU 0-2 · ATS 0-2 · O/U 0-2 | SU 0-2 · ATS 0-1-1 · O/U 1-1 |
| In division | SU 0-1 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 0-1 | SU 0-1 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 0-1 |
| Out of division | SU 2-1 · ATS 2-1 · O/U 1-2 | SU 0-3 · ATS 0-2-1 · O/U 1-2 |
| Pick'em (±3) | SU 2-2 · ATS 2-2 · O/U 1-3 | |
| Favoured by 3-7 | SU 0-1 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 0-1 | |
| Favoured by 7+ | SU 0-1 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 0-1 | |
| Dog by 7+ | SU 0-2 · ATS 0-1-1 · O/U 1-1 |
SU = straight up · ATS = against the spread · O/U = over-under. Records count GAMES PLAYED.
Season to date — 2026
| Metric | DEN | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 1st downs | ||
| Total | 65 | 74 |
| Passing | 39 | 40 |
| Rushing | 21 | 27 |
| From penalties | 7 | 8 |
| Efficiency | ||
| Third down | 21 of 52 | 20 of 52 |
| Fourth down | 1 of 2 | 2 of 6 |
| Volume | ||
| Total yards | 1,144 | 1,302 |
| Total plays | 229 | 245 |
| Yards per play | 5.0 | 5.3 |
| Drives | 40 | 47 |
| Passing | ||
| Passing yards | 819 | 816 |
| Completions | 81-142 | 71-132 |
| Yards per pass | 5.8 | 6.2 |
| Touchdowns | 5 | 4 |
| Interceptions | 3 | 6 |
| Sacks (yards lost) | 5 (23) | 12 (75) |
| Rushing | ||
| Rushing yards | 325 | 486 |
| Attempts | 91 | 113 |
| Yards per rush | 3.6 | 4.3 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 3 |
| Red zone | ||
| Scores | 7 of 12 | 7 of 12 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties (yards) | 29 (187) | 38 (289) |
| Turnovers | ||
| Total | 4 | 9 |
| Fumbles lost | 1 | 3 |
| Interceptions thrown | 3 | 6 |
Full-season totals from the 2026 season, database N.
When these two have met
- 2025 wk 18 LAC 3, DEN 19 DEN won
- 2025 wk 3 DEN 20, LAC 23 LAC won
- 2024 wk 16 DEN 27, LAC 34 LAC won
- 2024 wk 6 LAC 23, DEN 16 LAC won
- 2023 wk 17 LAC 9, DEN 16 DEN won
- 2023 wk 14 DEN 24, LAC 7 DEN won
Before the game
- Biggest mismatch: LAC's offense (T-13th) against DEN's defense (30th) in rushing first downs.
The mismatch
- LAC's offense ranks T-13th in rushing first downs; DEN's defense ranks 30th against it.
- LAC's offense ranks 12th in yards per carry; DEN's defense ranks 26th against it.
- LAC's offense ranks 16th in yards per completion; DEN's defense ranks 26th against it.
- DEN's offense ranks 21st in net yards per pass attempt; LAC's defense ranks 25th against it.
- DEN's offense ranks 5th in sack rate (taken); LAC's defense ranks T-8th against it.
- DEN's offense ranks T-16th in fourth-down conversion rate; LAC's defense ranks T-21st against it.
Form and history
- Week 5, 2026: DEN (2 wins, 2 losses), on a 1-game losing streak at LAC (0 wins, 4 losses), on a 4-game losing streak.
- Head-to-head: DEN leads LAC 9–7 in games since 2018.
Starters and rest
- Projected starters: Bo Nix for DEN, Justin Herbert for LAC.