BUF at LAR
What the site's algorithm makes of it
Power ratings as stored for week 5, 2026 — the set this week's picks were made from.
It makes LAR the better side by 3.4.
Members see which side it is taking this week, and by how much it disagrees with the market.
Opened LAR -2.5
Now LAR -3.5 — LAR favoured by 1 more since first recorded
Line history: LAR -2.5 ×9 (Oct 4–Oct 6) · LAR -3 ×7 (Oct 9–Oct 12) · LAR -3.5 ×14 (Oct 13–Nov 2)
Scoring offense
Percentile against the league. Outward is better; the inner ring is the median.
Scoring defense
Percentile against the league. Outward is better; the inner ring is the median.
Passing
Bubble size is touchdowns.
Rushing
Bubble size is touchdowns.
Drives
Longer is better. 50 is the league median.
Conversions
Longer is better. 50 is the league median.
Betting record — 2026
| Split | BUF | LAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | SU 6-1 · ATS 5-2 · O/U 5-2 | SU 4-4 · ATS 4-4 · O/U 4-4 |
| At home | SU 3-1 · ATS 3-1 · O/U 2-2 | SU 2-3 · ATS 2-3 · O/U 1-4 |
| On the road | SU 3-0 · ATS 2-1 · O/U 3-0 | SU 2-1 · ATS 2-1 · O/U 3-0 |
| As favourite | SU 5-1 · ATS 4-2 · O/U 4-2 | SU 4-3 · ATS 4-3 · O/U 3-4 |
| As underdog | SU 1-0 · ATS 1-0 · O/U 1-0 | SU 0-1 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 1-0 |
| In division | SU 0-1 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 1-0 | SU 0-2 · ATS 0-2 · O/U 0-2 |
| Out of division | SU 6-0 · ATS 5-1 · O/U 4-2 | SU 4-2 · ATS 4-2 · O/U 4-2 |
| Pick'em (±3) | SU 2-0 · ATS 2-0 · O/U 1-1 | SU 0-1 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 1-0 |
| Favoured by 3-7 | SU 2-0 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 2-0 | SU 4-2 · ATS 4-2 · O/U 3-3 |
| Favoured by 7+ | SU 1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 1-1 | SU 0-1 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 0-1 |
| Dog by 3-7 | SU 1-0 · ATS 1-0 · O/U 1-0 |
SU = straight up · ATS = against the spread · O/U = over-under. Records count GAMES PLAYED.
Season to date — 2026
| Metric | BUF | LAR |
|---|---|---|
| 1st downs | ||
| Total | 166 | 185 |
| Passing | 79 | 109 |
| Rushing | 75 | 63 |
| From penalties | 22 | 0 |
| Efficiency | ||
| Third down | 35 of 75 | 43 of 94 |
| Fourth down | 7 of 9 | 6 of 11 |
| Volume | ||
| Total yards | 2,832 | 3,163 |
| Total plays | 429 | 522 |
| Yards per play | 6.6 | 6.1 |
| Drives | 77 | 89 |
| Passing | ||
| Passing yards | 1,793 | 2,159 |
| Completions | 135-222 | 206-320 |
| Yards per pass | 8.1 | 6.7 |
| Touchdowns | 11 | 15 |
| Interceptions | 5 | 8 |
| Sacks (yards lost) | 13 (80) | 12 (88) |
| Rushing | ||
| Rushing yards | 1,039 | 1,004 |
| Attempts | 217 | 213 |
| Yards per rush | 4.8 | 4.7 |
| Touchdowns | 16 | 10 |
| Red zone | ||
| Scores | 21 of 38 | 0 of 37 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties (yards) | 60 (521) | 0 (0) |
| Turnovers | ||
| Total | 11 | 12 |
| Fumbles lost | 6 | 4 |
| Interceptions thrown | 5 | 8 |
Full-season totals from the 2026 season, database N.
When these two have met
- 2026 wk 5 BUF 37, LAR 34 BUF won
- 2024 wk 14 BUF 42, LAR 44 LAR won
- 2022 wk 1 BUF 31, LAR 10 BUF won
- 2020 wk 3 LAR 32, BUF 35 BUF won
Before the game
- Biggest mismatch: LAR's offense (T-6th) against BUF's defense (31st) in passing first downs.
The mismatch
- LAR's offense ranks T-6th in passing first downs; BUF's defense ranks 31st against it.
- LAR's offense ranks 8th in yards per drive; BUF's defense ranks 28th against it.
- LAR's offense ranks 7th in yards per completion; BUF's defense ranks 22nd against it.
- BUF's offense ranks 1st in expected points added rushing; LAR's defense ranks 13th against it.
- BUF's offense ranks 3rd in yards per carry; LAR's defense ranks 12th against it.
- BUF's offense ranks 15th in average drive start (yards to go); LAR's defense ranks 23rd against it.
Form and history
- Week 5, 2026: BUF (3 wins, 1 loss), on a 1-game losing streak at LAR (2 wins, 2 losses), on a 1-game winning streak.
- Head-to-head: BUF leads LAR 2–1 in games since 2020.
Starters and rest
- Projected starters: Josh Allen for BUF, Matthew Stafford for LAR.
Final — the recap is on this game's result page.