BAL at ATL
What the site's algorithm makes of it
Power ratings as stored for week 5, 2026 — the set this week's picks were made from.
It makes BAL the better side by 0.5.
Members see which side it is taking this week, and by how much it disagrees with the market.
Opened BAL -3.5
Now ATL -3.5 — the favourite flipped from BAL to ATL since first recorded
Line history: BAL -3.5 ×7 (Oct 4–Oct 5) · BAL -2.5 ×2 (Oct 6–Oct 6) · ATL -3 ×4 (Oct 9–Oct 10) · ATL -3.5 ×17 (Oct 12–Nov 2)
Scoring offense
Percentile against the league. Outward is better; the inner ring is the median.
Scoring defense
Percentile against the league. Outward is better; the inner ring is the median.
Passing
Bubble size is touchdowns.
Rushing
Bubble size is touchdowns.
Drives
Longer is better. 50 is the league median.
Conversions
Longer is better. 50 is the league median.
Betting record — 2026
| Split | BAL | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | SU 4-4 · ATS 2-5-1 · O/U 4-4 | SU 3-5 · ATS 3-5 · O/U 4-4 |
| At home | SU 1-2 · ATS 0-3 · O/U 1-2 | SU 1-3 · ATS 1-3 · O/U 2-2 |
| On the road | SU 3-2 · ATS 2-2-1 · O/U 3-2 | SU 2-2 · ATS 2-2 · O/U 2-2 |
| As favourite | SU 3-2 · ATS 1-3-1 · O/U 2-3 | SU 0-1 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 1-0 |
| As underdog | SU 1-2 · ATS 1-2 · O/U 2-1 | SU 3-4 · ATS 3-4 · O/U 3-4 |
| In division | SU 0-2 · ATS 0-2 · O/U 1-1 | SU 1-2 · ATS 1-2 · O/U 1-2 |
| Out of division | SU 4-2 · ATS 2-3-1 · O/U 3-3 | SU 2-3 · ATS 2-3 · O/U 3-2 |
| Pick'em (±3) | SU 2-3 · ATS 1-3-1 · O/U 3-2 | SU 2-3 · ATS 2-3 · O/U 2-3 |
| Favoured by 3-7 | SU 0-1 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 1-0 | |
| Favoured by 7+ | SU 1-1 · ATS 0-2 · O/U 0-2 | |
| Dog by 3-7 | SU 1-0 · ATS 1-0 · O/U 1-0 | SU 1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 1-1 |
SU = straight up · ATS = against the spread · O/U = over-under. Records count GAMES PLAYED.
Season to date — 2026
| Metric | BAL | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st downs | ||
| Total | 146 | 139 |
| Passing | 87 | 67 |
| Rushing | 53 | 61 |
| From penalties | 18 | 13 |
| Efficiency | ||
| Third down | 38 of 95 | 32 of 95 |
| Fourth down | 2 of 8 | 4 of 12 |
| Volume | ||
| Total yards | 2,853 | 2,682 |
| Total plays | 474 | 470 |
| Yards per play | 6.0 | 5.7 |
| Drives | 90 | 91 |
| Passing | ||
| Passing yards | 1,785 | 1,604 |
| Completions | 154-251 | 136-244 |
| Yards per pass | 7.1 | 6.6 |
| Touchdowns | 10 | 10 |
| Interceptions | 3 | 11 |
| Sacks (yards lost) | 22 (144) | 16 (97) |
| Rushing | ||
| Rushing yards | 1,068 | 1,078 |
| Attempts | 232 | 234 |
| Yards per rush | 4.6 | 4.6 |
| Touchdowns | 10 | 8 |
| Red zone | ||
| Scores | 16 of 31 | 14 of 27 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties (yards) | 67 (493) | 48 (450) |
| Turnovers | ||
| Total | 8 | 14 |
| Fumbles lost | 5 | 4 |
| Interceptions thrown | 3 | 11 |
Full-season totals from the 2026 season, database N.
When these two have met
- 2026 wk 5 BAL 30, ATL 23 BAL won
- 2022 wk 16 ATL 9, BAL 17 BAL won
- 2018 wk 13 BAL 26, ATL 16 BAL won
Before the game
- Biggest mismatch: BAL's offense (7th) against ATL's defense (31st) in interception rate (thrown).
The mismatch
- BAL's offense ranks 7th in interception rate (thrown); ATL's defense ranks 31st against it.
- ATL's offense ranks T-3rd in rushing touchdowns; BAL's defense ranks T-26th against it.
- ATL's offense ranks 1st in rushing first downs; BAL's defense ranks 24th against it.
- ATL's offense ranks 3rd in expected points added rushing; BAL's defense ranks 16th against it.
- BAL's offense ranks T-4th in share of drives ending in a turnover; ATL's defense ranks T-17th against it.
- BAL's offense ranks 16th in average drive start (yards to go); ATL's defense ranks 27th against it.
Form and history
- Week 5, 2026: BAL (3 wins, 1 loss), on a 2-game winning streak at ATL (2 wins, 2 losses), on a 2-game winning streak.
- Head-to-head: BAL leads ATL 2–0 in games since 2018.
Starters and rest
- Projected starters: Lamar Jackson for BAL, Michael Penix Jr. for ATL.
- BAL enters on 7 days rest to ATL's 6.
Final — the recap is on this game's result page.