NE at BUF
What the site's algorithm makes of it
Power ratings as stored for week 4, 2026 — the set this week's picks were made from.
It makes BUF the better side by 7.2.
Members see which side it is taking this week, and by how much it disagrees with the market.
Opened BUF -7
Now BUF -7
Line history: BUF -7 ×4 (Sep 29–Sep 29)
Scoring offense
Percentile against the league. Outward is better; the inner ring is the median.
Scoring defense
Percentile against the league. Outward is better; the inner ring is the median.
Passing
Bubble size is touchdowns.
Rushing
Bubble size is touchdowns.
Drives
Longer is better. 50 is the league median.
Conversions
Longer is better. 50 is the league median.
Betting record — 2026
| Split | NE | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | SU 1-2 · ATS 1-1-1 · O/U 0-3 | SU 3-0 · ATS 3-0 · O/U 2-1 |
| At home | SU 1-0 · ATS 1-0 · O/U 0-1 | SU 2-0 · ATS 2-0 · O/U 1-1 |
| On the road | SU 0-2 · ATS 0-1-1 · O/U 0-2 | SU 1-0 · ATS 1-0 · O/U 1-0 |
| As favourite | SU 1-0 · ATS 1-0 · O/U 0-1 | SU 3-0 · ATS 3-0 · O/U 2-1 |
| As underdog | SU 0-2 · ATS 0-1-1 · O/U 0-2 | |
| Out of division | SU 1-2 · ATS 1-1-1 · O/U 0-3 | SU 3-0 · ATS 3-0 · O/U 2-1 |
| Pick'em (±3) | SU 0-2 · ATS 0-1-1 · O/U 0-2 | SU 1-0 · ATS 1-0 · O/U 1-0 |
| Favoured by 3-7 | SU 1-0 · ATS 1-0 · O/U 0-1 | SU 1-0 · ATS 1-0 · O/U 1-0 |
| Favoured by 7+ | SU 1-0 · ATS 1-0 · O/U 0-1 |
SU = straight up · ATS = against the spread · O/U = over-under. Records count GAMES PLAYED.
Season to date — 2026
| Metric | NE | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 1st downs | ||
| Total | 50 | 76 |
| Passing | 23 | 37 |
| Rushing | 22 | 34 |
| From penalties | 5 | 11 |
| Efficiency | ||
| Third down | 15 of 40 | 18 of 32 |
| Fourth down | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 |
| Volume | ||
| Total yards | 959 | 1,251 |
| Total plays | 178 | 180 |
| Yards per play | 5.4 | 7.0 |
| Drives | 30 | 32 |
| Passing | ||
| Passing yards | 631 | 786 |
| Completions | 55-95 | 56-95 |
| Yards per pass | 6.6 | 8.3 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 5 |
| Interceptions | 6 | 2 |
| Sacks (yards lost) | 9 (38) | 8 (46) |
| Rushing | ||
| Rushing yards | 328 | 465 |
| Attempts | 85 | 90 |
| Yards per rush | 3.9 | 5.2 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 8 |
| Red zone | ||
| Scores | 1 of 9 | 9 of 17 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties (yards) | 22 (149) | 25 (219) |
| Turnovers | ||
| Total | 8 | 5 |
| Fumbles lost | 2 | 3 |
| Interceptions thrown | 6 | 2 |
Full-season totals from the 2026 season, database N.
When these two have met
- 2025 wk 15 BUF 35, NE 31 BUF won
- 2025 wk 5 NE 23, BUF 20 NE won
- 2024 wk 18 BUF 16, NE 23 NE won
- 2024 wk 16 NE 21, BUF 24 BUF won
- 2023 wk 17 NE 21, BUF 27 BUF won
- 2023 wk 7 BUF 25, NE 29 NE won
Before the game
- Biggest mismatch: BUF's offense (1st) against NE's defense (27th) in expected points added rushing.
The mismatch
- BUF's offense ranks 1st in expected points added rushing; NE's defense ranks 27th against it.
- BUF's offense ranks T-11th in fourth-down conversion rate; NE's defense ranks T-26th against it.
- BUF's offense ranks 3rd in yards per carry; NE's defense ranks 19th against it.
- NE's offense ranks T-8th in fourth-down conversion rate; BUF's defense ranks 24th against it.
- NE's offense ranks 9th in yards per pass attempt; BUF's defense ranks 21st against it.
- NE's offense ranks 14th in expected points added rushing; BUF's defense ranks 23rd against it.
Form and history
- Week 4, 2026: NE (1 win, 2 losses), on a 1-game losing streak at BUF (3 wins, 0 losses), on a 3-game winning streak.
- Head-to-head: the series is level at 8–8 in games since 2018.
Starters and rest
- Projected starters: Drake Maye for NE, Josh Allen for BUF.