LAC at BUF
What the site's algorithm makes of it
Power ratings as stored for week 3, 2026 — the set this week's picks were made from.
It makes BUF the better side by 6.2.
Members see which side it is taking this week, and by how much it disagrees with the market.
Opened BUF -7
Now BUF -7
Line history: BUF -7 ×35 (Sep 22–Oct 13)
Scoring offense
Percentile against the league. Outward is better; the inner ring is the median.
Scoring defense
Percentile against the league. Outward is better; the inner ring is the median.
Passing
Bubble size is touchdowns.
Rushing
Bubble size is touchdowns.
Drives
Longer is better. 50 is the league median.
Conversions
Longer is better. 50 is the league median.
Betting record — 2026
| Split | LAC | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | SU 0-5 · ATS 0-4-1 · O/U 1-4 | SU 4-1 · ATS 4-1 · O/U 4-1 |
| At home | SU 0-3 · ATS 0-3 · O/U 0-3 | SU 2-1 · ATS 2-1 · O/U 2-1 |
| On the road | SU 0-2 · ATS 0-1-1 · O/U 1-1 | SU 2-0 · ATS 2-0 · O/U 2-0 |
| As favourite | SU 0-2 · ATS 0-2 · O/U 0-2 | SU 3-1 · ATS 3-1 · O/U 3-1 |
| As underdog | SU 0-3 · ATS 0-2-1 · O/U 1-2 | SU 1-0 · ATS 1-0 · O/U 1-0 |
| In division | SU 0-2 · ATS 0-2 · O/U 0-2 | SU 0-1 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 1-0 |
| Out of division | SU 0-3 · ATS 0-2-1 · O/U 1-2 | SU 4-0 · ATS 4-0 · O/U 3-1 |
| Pick'em (±3) | SU 1-0 · ATS 1-0 · O/U 1-0 | |
| Favoured by 3-7 | SU 0-1 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 0-1 | SU 1-0 · ATS 1-0 · O/U 1-0 |
| Favoured by 7+ | SU 0-1 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 0-1 | SU 1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 1-1 |
| Dog by 3-7 | SU 0-1 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 0-1 | SU 1-0 · ATS 1-0 · O/U 1-0 |
| Dog by 7+ | SU 0-2 · ATS 0-1-1 · O/U 1-1 |
SU = straight up · ATS = against the spread · O/U = over-under. Records count GAMES PLAYED.
Season to date — 2026
| Metric | LAC | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 1st downs | ||
| Total | 88 | 119 |
| Passing | 47 | 53 |
| Rushing | 32 | 57 |
| From penalties | 14 | 16 |
| Efficiency | ||
| Third down | 25 of 66 | 27 of 51 |
| Fourth down | 2 of 8 | 3 of 4 |
| Volume | ||
| Total yards | 1,578 | 2,039 |
| Total plays | 307 | 293 |
| Yards per play | 5.1 | 7.0 |
| Drives | 60 | 54 |
| Passing | ||
| Passing yards | 937 | 1,249 |
| Completions | 85-161 | 91-151 |
| Yards per pass | 5.8 | 8.3 |
| Touchdowns | 5 | 7 |
| Interceptions | 7 | 4 |
| Sacks (yards lost) | 17 (114) | 10 (58) |
| Rushing | ||
| Rushing yards | 641 | 790 |
| Attempts | 147 | 147 |
| Yards per rush | 4.4 | 5.4 |
| Touchdowns | 4 | 13 |
| Red zone | ||
| Scores | 8 of 14 | 15 of 27 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties (yards) | 47 (382) | 43 (362) |
| Turnovers | ||
| Total | 12 | 9 |
| Fumbles lost | 5 | 5 |
| Interceptions thrown | 7 | 4 |
Full-season totals from the 2026 season, database N.
When these two have met
- 2026 wk 3 LAC 16, BUF 24 BUF won
- 2023 wk 16 BUF 24, LAC 22 BUF won
- 2020 wk 12 LAC 17, BUF 27 BUF won
- 2018 wk 2 LAC 31, BUF 20 LAC won
- 2017 wk 11 BUF 24, LAC 54 LAC won
Before the game
- Biggest mismatch: BUF's offense (2nd) against LAC's defense (28th) in net yards per pass attempt.
The mismatch
- BUF's offense ranks 2nd in net yards per pass attempt; LAC's defense ranks 28th against it.
- BUF's offense ranks T-1st in share of drives ending in a turnover; LAC's defense ranks T-27th against it.
- BUF's offense ranks 1st in yards per pass attempt; LAC's defense ranks 26th against it.
- LAC's offense ranks 1st in red-zone scoring rate; BUF's defense ranks 26th against it.
- LAC's offense ranks 19th in touchdown rate per pass; BUF's defense ranks 28th against it.
- LAC's offense ranks T-7th in rushing touchdowns; BUF's defense ranks T-16th against it.
Form and history
- Week 3, 2026: LAC (0 wins, 2 losses), on a 2-game losing streak at BUF (2 wins, 0 losses), on a 2-game winning streak.
- Head-to-head: BUF leads LAC 2–1 in games since 2018.
Starters and rest
- Projected starters: Justin Herbert for LAC, Josh Allen for BUF.
- BUF enters on 10 days rest to LAC's 7.
Final — the recap is on this game's result page.