QB Score vs QBR vs Passer Rating – Ranking the QBs – NFL 2023 Week 18

QB Score – Comparative Quarterback Ratings

Last week’s post had the MVP race down to 5 quarterbacks, 4 in a virtual dead heat, and a 5th who could still still the QB Score & MVP crowns.  In this post, we will look at the week 17 statistics for all the top quarterbacks and how it changed their QB Score, QBR & Passer Ratings.  Two of the three agree on a QB for MVP while the third goes a different direction.

The most recent QB Score article before this: NFL 2023 Week 17 Quarterback Ratings: QB Score vs Passer Rating vs QBR
In Depth explaination of QB Score: QB Score v2.0 – QBS – Comparative NFL Quarterback Ratings

QB Score Metrics

Here are the metrics for calculating QBS.  All NFL QBs are scored in 14 statistics:

• Completion %
• Passing Yards / Game
• Intended Air Yards / Pass Attempt
• Completed Air Yards / Game
• Completed Air Yards / Pass Attempt
• Intended Air Yards/ Pass Attempt – Completed Air Yards / Pass Attempt (Inverse)
• On Target %
• Touchdown %
• Interception % (Inverse)
• 1st Down Success %
• Sack % (Inverse)
• Rushing 1st Downs
• Planned Rushing Yardage per game
• Scramble Rushing Yardage per game

You’ll notice that 3 statistics have (Inverse) next to them.  This simply means when calculating, a lower value is better.  It is better to have a low INT% and Sack% so the stat/score is inverted.  At the bottom of every metric you can see the average and the size of 1 unit SD range.

NFL 2023 – Rating The QBs – QB Score vs QBR vs Passer Rating

Let’s do a quick recap of where everything was a week ago.  This will allow us to see how the stats each QB put up in week 17 changed their QB Score.  This will be a great example of how comparative ratings differ from traditional ratings systems that rate the quarterbacks in a vacuum.  With comparative ratings each quarterback’s score is not only dependent on what he does on the field, but also what all of his peers do on the field as well.

QB Scores Through Week 16

 

In the chart above you can see all the scores for each quarterback through week 16.  The QB Score title was down to five QBs:

• Purdy 10.49
• Hurts 10.37
• Jackson 10.29
• Prescott 10.24
• (Cousins 9.78)
• Allen 9.75

Here  are the quick excerpts regarding what each QB needed to do in weeks 17 & 18 to win MVP and the QB Score titles:

Brock Purdy Pocket Passer (10.49)

• Purdy’s 11.82 pass score trails only Kirk Cousins’ half season of brilliance. His -1.32 Rush score shows he is a classic Pocket Passer much like Tua Tagovailoa(11.33 pass -2.84 rush)
• Purdy’s score is dependent on Completion %, Pass Yards/game, Completed Air Yards/Pass Attempt, TD%, & 1st Down %
• He has huge leads in CAY/PA, TD% and 1st Down %, but that puts the onus on him to keep up at those rates or lose points.
• Completion % and Pass Yards/ Game are pretty entrenched and would take really bad or amazzing games to move them much. The 4 INT last game brought him back to the field in INT% and really made this a race.
• If Purdy could run a bit in the last 2 games, that would be his best chance to make up any points loss in the stats he gets huge points in.

Passer Rating Factor – No one is catching Purdy at 112.2.

QBR Factor – 1st with the slimmest of leads over Allen & Prescott

Jalen Hurts Hybrid-Rusher (10.37)

• Hurts(3.93 Pass 6.44 Rush) is vulnerable in 1st Downs per game and planned rush yards per game.
• He scores ridiculously high in 1st Downs per game, and quite high in planned rushing yards. So like Purdy he will need to keep up the pass in those categories or risk losing points to the field.
• Because he is kind of middle of the pack in many passing stats, two good games against weak opponents could see Hurts rack up the passing stats he needs to take the QB score title.

Passer Rating Factor – Hurts is decidely average at Passer Rating, below Geno Smith.

QBR Factor – Hurts is decent at 9th in QBR

Lamar Jackson Hybrid-Rusher (10.29)

• Jackson(3.24 Pass 7.06 Rush) is almost identical to Hurts except he gets massive points in planned rushing yards per game, and high points in 1st downs per game and scramble yards per game.
• Just like Hurts he is middle of the pack in many passing stats so a couple of good passing games could see him make up a lot of points in the pass metrics.
• Of all the players in the hunt, Jackson is most vulnerable to himself. He must keep up the other worldly rushing metrics or lose points simply for not be superhuman at times.

Passer Rating Factor – Jackson has the 9th spot in Passer Rating

QBR Factor – Jackson sits in 8th in QBR

Dak Prescott Hybrid-Passer (10.24)

• Prescott(10.20 Pass 0.04 Rush) is just below Purdy as a pure passer, but has a bit more rushing ability to make up for it. He sits on the borderline between Pocket Passer and Hybrid-Passer and I just chose the latter. You could easily call him a Pocket Passer.
• Prescott is decidely average at all the rushing metrics and therefore the overall rush score as well. That is a bit rare as pocket passers tend to have negative rush scores
• To stay in the race Prescott will simply need to have his average passing game a few more times. Make good decisions, keep completion % & TD% high, and chip in with a run here and there.
• If Prescott were to have 2 good rushing games, he could make up the points he needs without having to do anything more in the passing game than status quo.

Passer Rating Factor – Prescott is 3rd in Passer Rating

QBR Factor – Prescott is 3rd in QBR

Josh Allen Hybrid (9.75)

• Note that I did not designate Allen(6.59 Pass 3.16 Rush) as a Hybrid-Rusher or Hybrid-Passer, he is more unicorn than either of those. Mahomes would be in this category during a typical Mahomes season but unfortunately this is a down season for him(2.06 pass 1.60 rush)
• No other QB ranks as high in both Passing stats and Rushing stats as Allen. While Hurts & Lamar are very similar and also rare, they do have each other to point to as a similar quarterback. There is no other QB to point to when it comes to Allen’s mix of high level passing and high level rushing.
• So how does he make up 0.75 SD units in 2 games? Stop throwing INTs and gunslinging. His INT % and IAT/PA – CAY/PA scores are hurting him aginst the other 4 quaterbacks. A couple successful planned QB draws or sprint out options would help his rushing scores. Just a couple big games are all that are needed, something he is capable of.
• The downside is he doesn’t control what the other 4 QBs do. If any of the 4 put together 2 really good games, they may be impossible to catch.

Passer Rating Factor – Allen is 12th in Passer Rating

QBR Factor – Allen is 2nd in QBR

Week 17 Quarterback Stats

We will get back to the QB Scores in a moment, but let’s first look at what each of the quarterbacks did in the game using traditional statistics you would find in a box score.

 

Purdy – Put up a very Brock Purdy like game, last week being the outlier.  It wasn’t a blockbuster but he did almost everything he had to except run the ball a bit.  Based on this you would expect he defended his score on increased it a bit.

• Passer rating – 124.7
• QBR – 88.2
• ANY/As – 9.6

Hurts – Had a great statistical game.  The defense let him down, but other than passing yards Hurts did everything he normally does running while doing a better job in the pass department.  Considering the running aspect of his game, he may have had a slightly better game than Purdy but it is close because of the interception and the fact that Hurts had to have a great running game just to keep the points he gets in rush statisticals.

• Passer rating – 118.4
• QBR – 77.4
• ANY/As – 7.9

Jackson – Put up a monster of a game.  Clearly the best of the bunch, and one of the best statistical games of the season for any quarterback.  The 5 TDs and 15 yd/att are going to help in the pass stats.

• Passer rating – 158.3
• QBR – 96
• ANY/As – 18.7

Prescott – Dak fired the first shot with the 92 yard bomb to Lamb on Saturday.  But after that had a rather average game.  In the end it looks like a pretty Dak like effort; solid all around passing but none of the rushing that he needed to make up some points.

• Passer rating – 103.5
• QBR – 63.2
• ANY/As – 7.8

Allen – Unfortunately week 17 was not a good week for Josh Allen.  Zero Tds and 1 INT is not good. Sub 200 yards is also not good.  What was good was the rushing effort which should score him points.  Whether it is enough points to offset the poor passing effort remains to be seen.

• Passer rating – 53.3
• QBR – 19.8
• ANY/As – 3.5

The QB Rating Titles & Race For MVP

Change in QBR & Passer Rating From Week 16 to week 17

Both QBR & Passer Rating still have Brock Purdy leading both of their respective ratings.

 

• Purdy gained 0.8 points in Passer Rating and 1 point in QBR
• Prescott gained 0.0 in Passer Rating and dropped 1 point in QBR
• Hurts gained 1.4 points in Passer Rating and 0.8 points in QBR
• Allen dropped 2.2 points in Passer Rating and 3.4 points in QBR
• Jackson gained 5.5 points in Passer Rating and 2.3 points in QBR

Change in QB Score Week Over Week

Above is the MVP values from last week for reference.   Below we will examine the change in QB Scores for each metric between Week 16 and Week 17.

Change in Completion%

 

1. Jackson 0.26
2. Hurts 0.16
3. Purdy 0.15
4. Prescott -0.04
5. Allen -0.30

Change in Pass Yards / Game

 

1. Prescott 0.15
2. Jackson 0.14
3. Purdy -0.01
4. Hurts -0.07
5. Allen -0.08

Change in Intended Air Yards Per Attempt

 

1. Hurts 0.13
2. Allen 0.13
3. Prescott 0.11
4. Purdy 0.01
5. Jackson 0.01

Change in Completed Air Yards Per Game

 

1. Prescott 0.18
2. Purdy 0.09
3. Jackson 0.08
4. Allen 0.02
5. Hurts -0.02

Change in Completed Air Yards Per Attempt

 

1. Jackson 0.32
2. Prescott 0.16
3. Purdy 0.00
4. Hurts -0.01
5. Allen -0.01

Change in Intended Air Yards Per Attempt – Completed Air Yards Per Attempt

 

1. Jackson 0.26
2. Purdy -0.02
3. Prescott -0.02
4. Hurts -0.13
5. Allen -0.13

Change in On Target %

 

1. Hurts 0.33
2. Jackson 0.21
3. Purdy -0.07
4. Prescott -0.07
5. Allen -0.21

Change in Touchdown %

 

1. Jackson 0.66
2. Hurts 0.30
3. Prescott -0.07
4. Purdy -0.10
5. Allen -0.28

Change in Interception %

 

1. Jackson 0.18
2. Purdy 0.16
3. Prescott 0.08
4. Hurts -0.04
5. Allen -0.05

Change in 1st Down Success %

 

1. Purdy 0.25
2. Jackson 0.20
3. Hurts 0.12
4. Prescott 0.01
5. Allen -0.11

Change in Sack %

 

1. Purdy 0.13
2. Hurts 0.10
3. Jackson 0.03
4. Allen 0.01
5. Prescottt -0.05

Change in 1st Downs Per Game

 

1. Allen 0.36
2. Purdy -0.03
3. Prescott -0.12
4. Hurts -0.14
5. Jackson -0.14

Change in Planned Rush Yards Per Game

 

1. Allen 0.03
2. Jackson -0.02
3. Purdy -0.05
4. Prescott -0.08
5. Hurts -0.08

Change in Scramble Rush Yards Per Game

 

1. Allen 0.08
2. Purdy -0.02
3. Prescott -0.04
4. Hurts -0.05
5. Jackson -0.16

Change in QB Score

Change in QB Score – Pass Score

1. Jackson +2.34
2. Hurts +0.85
3. Purdy +0.60
4. Prescott +0.46
5. Allen -1.01

Change in QB Score – Rush Score

1. Allen +0.48
2. Purdy -0.10
3. Prescott -0.24
4. Hurts -0.27
5. Jackson -0.32

Brock Purdy (+0.50) 10.98

Purdy gained 0.60 points in passing and loss -0.10 in rushing.  He has no real rushing stats to lose points in so his 1 rush for 4 yards did minimal damage.  He gained most of his 0.60 pass points from sack %, 1st Down Success % and completion %.

Jalen Hurts (+0.57) 10.94

Hurts had a good rushing game, but with his stats good isn’t enough to keep from losing points in QB Score Rush Score which he did to the tune of -0.27 points(half of which was lost on 1st downs/game).  He had a nice passing day which led to +0.85 Pass points, about 3/4 of the gain came from On Target % and TD %.

Dak Prescott (+0.22) 10.46

Dak didn’t have a bad game in general, but it was no where near as good as Purdy, Hurts or Jackson.  He gained +0.46 in pass points but loss -0.24 in Rush points.  So in essence he did what he needed to do in the pass game, but didn’t do anything in the run game where he could have made up points.

Josh Allen (-0.53) 9.22

Let’s start with the good.  Allen scored +0.48 Rush points with his 2 TD effort.  This is exactly what he needed to do coming into week 17.  However, his passing day was terrible: 0 TDs 1 INT 156 Pass Yards.  He ended up losing -1.01 Pass points for the bad day sinking any chance he had for MVP and the QB Score crown.

Lamar Jackson (+2.02) 12.32

Great Googly Moogly!  Jackson went into the Deathmatch and punked everyone with a display of  Hybrid QB prowess.  He ran.   He threw.  He dissected.  He dismantled. It was a thing of statistical beauty.  He raised his QB Score pass score by an otherworldly 2.34 points, passing QB after QB in metric after metric.  He even lost -0.32 in Rush points simply because he was only great at running instead of spectacular, in essence losing points due to having to try to match himself.

Jackson scored positive points in EVERY SINGLE PASS METRIC.  It was +0.01 from here.  Another +0.30 from there.  Tack on a tasty +0.60 from this, and another +0.20 from that.

He was 15th in QB Score Pass Score after week 16.  He is 9th after week 17.  He did all this while Purdy, Hurts & Prescott all had good to great games.  Remember everyone is compared to everyone in QB Score, so that should give you some idea of how great a day Jackson had on Sunday in order to amass that many points against QBs putting up big numbers themselves.

Simply put, Jackson was in a class by himself in Week 17, and according to QB Score, is the clear MVP.  I know QBR and Passer Rating both say its’ Purdy, but they cannot be looking at the sum of all the parts if they cannot recognize that Jackson is the best QB in 2023.  He won all the big games.  He played the best when it mattered the most.  He is wielding two weapons compared to most QBs who only have one.

 

 

The chart above shows all the changes week over week in QB Score, QB Score metrics, and even QBR and Passer Ratings.   If we strip out the actaul statistics and leave just the scoring the chart looks like the one below.

 

And if we zoom in on just the top quarterbacks, we get the following chart:

Here we can see exactly how the quarterback’s performance in week 17 effected each scoring metric and their overall QB Score.

MVP QB SCORE SUMMARY

QB Score Through Week 17

 

 

QB Score – Pass Score Through Week 17

If you wanted a quarterback based solely on their ability to pass, use this chart.

 

QB Score – Rush Score Through Week 17

If you wanted a QB based solely on their rushing ability use this chart.

 

QB Score Range Through Week 17

For those who want a quarterback equally skilled in both pass and run regardless of overall score. This chart show QBs who have the smallest to largest difference between their Pass Score & Run Score. The Pass/Rush Range is the Absolute Value of the difference.

Thus players at the top of the list mix pass/rush almost equally(whether that is mixed expertly or poorly is not factored in). While those at the bottom do one thing(Pass or Rush) vastly better than the other. Refer to the QB Score chart for their overall ability.

For example, Cousins can Pass but can’t run at all. Neither can Tua or Purdy. Conversely D. Jones and J Fields can run but can’t pass.

On the other side, Minshew pass and runs equally poorly as does Ridder, Levis & Stick. Mahomes & Hurts both have an imposing mix of Pass/Run. Allen and Jackson also have the ideal mix of Pass/Run where the can turn to one option if the other isn’t working.

 

Passer Rating Through Week 17

You think everything about QB Score and QBR is nonsense and just want to pick a quarterback based on Passer Rating.

 

QBR Through Week 17

You think Qb Score and Passer Rating are complete drivel and want to use QBR to pick a quarterback.