NFL 2024 – Comparative Offensive Line Rankings Through Week 3
Here are the first NFL 2024 Offensive Line ratings and rankings. Comparative ranking rate teams based on their performance in metrics vs all other teams. Thus every metric has winners and losers in almost equal quantity. Individual lineman grades or ranks are not taken into consideration, rather the performance of the line as a whole is what is measured.
READ MORE:
NFL 2023 Offensive Line Ratings & Rankings – Final Rankings
2023 NFL Team Offensive Line Rankings
The Role & Metrics of the Offensive Line
For the offensive line ratings, we are going to assume that the offensive line’s 4 main objectives are:
- Open holes for the rushing game
- Identify, adjust and negate blitzes
- Protect the quarterback for a reasonable amount of time
- Win & hold blocks as a unit
The List of Offensive Line Metrics
The Offensive Line scores and ranks are determined by comparing the teams in 4 pass statistics, 4 run statistics, and overall block win rate. The teams are scored by standardization in each metric to get a Pass Score, Run Score, Block Score, & Total Score.
Standardization creates an average score of 0.00 for each score. The average value for each metric is in parenthesis.
- Blitz % (27.76%)
- Pressure % (32.70%)
- Blitz Deflection % (-28.5%)
- Average Pocket Time (2.74 sec)
- Rushing Yards Before Contact / Attempt (1.29 yards)
- 10 yard + Runs (9.69 10+ runs)
- Run Success % (42.14%)
- Run Stuffed % (15.95%)
- Overall Block Win% (x2) (64,12%)
Let’s look at each objective and identify the metric(s) used to measure the line’s effectiveness.
Opening Holes For The Rushing Game
Clearly one of the offensive line’s main tasks is to run block effectively. An offensive line that cannot run block and create opportunities for ball carriers is going to find itself forced into a lot of predictable pass block situations. Without the threat of an effective running game, defensive players can sit on pass routes and pass rushers can pin their ears back.
Run Blocking Metrics
The metrics to be used to measure run block effectiveness are:
Rushing Yards Before Contact(YBC)/Attempt While the ball carrier’s ability is certainly a part of the metric, the size of the hole, or the time until the first defender can make contact with a ball carrier, is primarily a result of blocking. And while wide receivers and tight end blocking is also a factor, we can simply assume that all wr/te blocks are equal(which they surely are not), and assume these blocks are simply an extension of the line blocking(or that any WR/TE in the play assumes OL status for the play).
Runs of 10+ Yards – Offensive lines that can pop the big running play are rewarded with this metric. It is fine to grind out 4 yards at a time, but hitting big runs plays are normally the result of big holes and good blocking. Naturally their will be times where the RB “creates” the big run, but in that case we can argue that the OL at least gave the RB time to create.
Stuffed % – This is an inverse metric, in that the lower the value, the higher the score. Offensive lines that are stuffed for no gains or losses put the entire offense in a hole. Minimizing the Stuffed % shows which lines are keeping defenders out of the backfield.
Success % – This metric measures how often the offense produces a running play that gains 40% of the yards needed for a 1st down on 1st down, 60% on 2nd down, or 100% on 3rd or 4th down. This is the keeping the chains moving and offense on track metric.
Identifying, Adjust To, And Negate Blitzes
This is probably the most difficult and important task assigned to the offensive line. Before providing time for a quarterback to throw, the line must identify the pass rushers, call the line protection, and still be aware of any misidentifications or additional blitzers not accounted for pre-snap. If any of this goes wrong without a blitz, it can lead to a negative play. When it goes wrong with a blitz, the potential for disasterous outcomes rises significantly.
Pass Blocking Metrics
We are going to assign three metrics to measuring this task:
Blitz % – An offensive line that faces a high amount of blitzing will score more higher in this metric. The purpose of this metric is to measure the amount of blitzes the line has had to face while producing the stats it has. It should be clear that a line facing 30% blitz % who gave up just 5 sacks, is probably more effective than a line who faced a 15% blitz % and gave up 5 sacks. Either the blitz pickup of the latter line is not good OR they are getting beat without a blitz. This is the reasoning for the metric.
This metric is probably the most controversial because it rewards offensive lines for simply being blitzed. However, if they cannot handle the blitz they are going to give the points back in blitz deflection % and Avg Time to Throw.
But if you lined up the metrics used in this exercise from most insightful to least insightful, this metric probably wins the least insightful award. It only tells us what the opponent is doing and how often an OL faced a blitz, not how they handled it. This is the reasoning against the metric.
QB Pressure % – Pressure % is simply the amount of hurries, knockdowns and sacks as a cumulative total, changed into a percentage by dividing that sum by the amount of pass attempts, scrambles & sacks. It assigns equal weight to a knockdown, a hurry and a sack even though they each have different Expected Point values, and affects on down/distance/outcome.
For measuring purposes, offensive lines that allow the least amount of pressure will score highest.
Blitz Deflection % – This is a metric you have never heard of because I made it up. I am defining Blitz Deflection % as [1 – (Blitz % / Pressure %)]. Let’s look at a simple example of what it is and why it may be a valuable metric.
Let’s assume a line has faced a Blitz % of 25%. Let’s also assume, that every blitz leads directly to pressure. Thus a Blitz % of 25% should lead to a Pressure % of 25%. Essentially, blitzes always work. Thus if a team faces 25% Blitzes, then the average line would allow 25% pressure.
A line that could keep pressure % BELOW Blitz % would be doing a better job than a line who’s Pressure % was higher than their Blitz %. If this happens the line must be giving up pressure outside the Blitz and negating little to none of the blitzes sent.
Looking at the chart, Baltimore’s offensive line has faced the blitz on 24.7% of designed passing plays. Their pressure % is 25.9%. While this cannot show the exact breakdown of how often Baltimore’s offensive line picked up the blitz and how many time they allowed pressure without a blitz, it should be give us some indication as to how they handle the blitz.
The ratio [1 – (24.7% / 25.9%)] = -5%. Thus Baltimore’s offensive line is not deflecting any blitzes. They would appear to be giving up pressure beyond blitzes. However, through 3 weeks the average blitz deflection % has been around -28.5%. Therefore while their blitz deflection % is negative, Baltimore’s OL is doing an above average job in deflecting blitzes so far.
Conversely, let’s take a look at Carolina’s offensive line in this metric. The Panthers offensive line faces a blitz 43.1% of the time. However the Panthers offensive line only allows pressure % of 26.2%.
The ratio [1-(26.2/ 43.1%)] = 39%. The Panthers line is deflecting 39% of blitzes.
Just remember Blitz Deflection is not measuring the actual amount of blitz pickups, but the theoretical amount a line is negating blitzes.
Protect the Quarterback for a Reasonable Amount of Time
Regardless as to whether the blitz pickup has been identified and executed properly, the offensive line is still tasked with giving the quarterback enough time to go through his reads, and complete the passing motion. It would be great if the QB is still standing and in the pocket when this is completed, but sometimes things go wrong and quarterbacks get sacked.
The two metrics being used to get the Average Time in Pocket metric are:
Time To Throw – The average amount of time the QB has to throw the ball.
Time To Pressure – The average amount of time before the QB feels pressure.
Average Time in The Pocket – This is simply the average of Time To Throw and Time To Pressure.
There is a bit of scheming that plays into this. Some teams have an extremely quick read system that inherently gets the ball out faster than other schemes looking for deeper, or double move, routes. But it is a fairly reliable indicator on the ability of the line to pass protect and form a workable QB pocket.
Winning Blocks – Overall Offensive Line Blocking Win Rate
The final metric is another metric you may not have seen before, Overall Block Win Rate. To calculate this metric, ESPN’s Pass Blocking Win Rate and Rush Blocking Win Rate percentages were used for each team.
Then the breakdown between passing and running plays for each team were taken into account. To find the overall block win rate, the pass block win rate was multiplied by the passing play %, and the rush block win rate was multiplied by the rush play %. Turning the resulting metric back into a percentage, leads to overall block win rate.
For example, a team has a pass block win rate of 60% and a rush block win rate of 70%. They pass 60% of the time and run 40% of the time. What is the overall block win %?
Overall Block Win % = [(0.60*60)+(0.70*40)]/100 = 64%
The Overall Block Win rate score is multiplied by 2 since winning blocks is the foundation of good line play.
Overall Block Win Rate
You can see all the data and calculation in the main chart. Perhaps you think everything before this section is nonsense and overall block win rate % is the true measure of offensive lines. In that case, here is the ranking based solely on Overall Block Win Rate %
Final Offensive Line Ratings & Rankings
Summing up the score from the 9 metrics, we arrive at a final rating for each of the 32 offensive lines.
The Offensive Line Ratings see Baltimore, Philadelphia & Buffalo as the having the best offensive lines. It sees Chicago, Tennessee, and Seattle as having the worst performing offensive lines thus far in 2024. But the values and rankings can give us more insight. For example, let’s look at the Colts OL rankings and scores.
Indianapolis has an excellent OL, but their pass score is being negatively influenced by a young QB in Richardson. They rank 2nd in Overall Block Win Rate & Run Score, but are 31st in Pass Score. They have faced 11.7% Blitz rate but have a QB Pressure % of 31%. A 31% QB pressure % is above average, but the 11.7% Blitz Rate is lowest in the league.
They give Richardson 2.88 sec to throw which is also above average. In fact, they score positively(above average) in every metric EXCEPT, Blitz% & Pressure%. Opposing teams are not blitzing him, but still creating pressure, albeit later than average. This all points to Richardson is holding the ball and/or running into pressure he doesn’t recognize is coming.
Another example can be found in the Baltimore Ravens OL mentioned above. They absolutely dominate the Run Blocking Score at 7.04. Second are the Colts are 4.74. Baltimore ranks 10th in Pass Score and 6th in Overall Blocking %, but Lamar Jackson boosts their Run Blocking score with his unique talents.
Here is Jackson’s game log for rushing. It is probably fair to say the Raven’s OL Overall Score is being inflated by Jackson’s ability to run the ball in volume. Jackson has the 28th most carries in the league this season, so he is at least half a RB besides being a QB.
His YBC/Att is 2.2 when the league average is 1.29. The Ravens lead this metric with an average of 2.6 yards before contact. The Colts, Eagles & Chargers are the only other offensive lines averaging over 2 yards before contact.
Remember these ratings are only measuring 3 weeks of data and that this is comparative, every team is measured and scored against their peer in each metric. While all 32 offensives can be good at a metric, someone has to be “most good” and someone has to be “least good” when doing comparative ratings.
As with all the ratings and analysis, feel free to chime in via the post on Reddit/r/nfl, Practicalist on Reddit, or by sending an email. Until next week, enjoy the football and best of luck to your team.
