NFL Results
October 5, 2023

NFL Lines Week 4 Picks Results

Against The Spread 10 – 6

The Algorithm got on track with a 10 – 6 record against the spread. The wins included 3 underdog Moneyline picks:

The Texans 30 – 6 demolition of Pittsburgh. The Algorithm had the Texans at -3 while the line had them at +3 in a huge overlay.
The Titans spanking the Bengals 27 -3. The Algorithm really dislikes the Bengals this year. The Algorithm had the Titans as 2.5 point favorites while catching +2.5 points as underdogs on the line.
The Seahawks emabrassing the Giants 24 -3. The Algorithm saw the Seahawks as 3.5 point favorites while you could catch them +1.5 on the line.

It was a week of sniffing out underdog and home team winners, as the Algorithm atoned for Week 3’s 7-9 record, to push the season record to 17 – 15. It is hoped as more 2023 statistics are generated, the Algorithm will get better at seeing opportunities and avoiding getting tricked by stats that fluctuate a lot in the first few weeks of the season.

Welcome Over/Under Point Totals 7 – 9

Meanwhile, the first week of Over/Under point total predictions were a mixed bag at 7 – 9. The Algorithm did quite well in determining whether a game would total over or under the leage average of 45(that dropped to 44.8 for week 5), but missed on several close calls on totals just over or just under 45. Projecting over/under point totals are a bit more tricky as it requires a complicated conversion from O/U rating to an actual point total due to the fact that the O/U rating has such a large range compared to the much smaller legitimate potential point total range.

Pick of the Week – Houston Texans on the Moneyline

The Algorithm really likes the Texans in 2023 as they show the greatest improvement in the 2023 vs 2022 power ratings. With the win, the Algorithm has the Texans rated as the #12 team in the NFL. DeMeco Ryans has to be a runaway Q1 Coach of the Year winner for the improvement that Houston has shown this year. And that 2023 draft class looks to be an outright double barrel winner with Stroud and Anderson leading the way. If the Texans keep improving they are going to win the AFC South.

Punk of the Week – Dolphins @ Bills

The algorithm got fooled by the Miami Dolphins and their inflated stats due to the 70 point drubbing of the Broncos. Oh sure you put on 70 on the hapless Broncos, and then run into a soft shelled 2 deep Buffalo defense and struggle to get to 20. And did the defense forget to get off the bus? A huge divisional game against a known opponent and you threaten to give up 50 as easily as you scored 70? Miami and Cleveland seem to be Jeckyl & Hyde teams, albeit Miami is far more capable offensively and Cleveland likewise defensively. But you have to think every upcoming Dolphins opponent is going to try this same 2 deep shell and dare them to beat them underneath or running the ball. This is where De’Von Archane can make a huge impact running the ball. I like Moestart, but I like Archane better.

Oddness of the Week – The Algorithm’s Losses

Well you have to give the Algorithm credit, when it gets it wrong, it gets them spectacularly wrong, at least in Week 4. The Algorithm went 10 – 6 against the spread, but the 6 losses:

Packers losing by 14
Panthers losing by 8 (this wasn’t horrible)
Dolphins losing by 28
Saints losing by 17
Browns losing by 25
Cardinals losing by 19

Yikes. At least the Alogrithm is responsible only for losing tickets and punched walls, and not heart attacks with any of these picks.