NFL 2023 – Team Grades Through Week 12
Time for team grades for the middle third of the 2023 season. These grades are for weeks 1 – 12, but each team report includes the breakdown for weeks 7 – 12 and for the first six weeks of the season.
A graphical look at the NFL 2023 stats: NFL 2023 – A Graphical Look At The NFL 2023 Team Stats & Rankings
You will find all the stats for the season so far, as well as for the first six weeks, and the past six weeks. There are stats, ranking and metrics for each team’s offense & defense along with a rating for the team as a whole.
Below, each team capsule will provide the following information:
- Graphics Metrics Capsule showing weeks 1-6, weeks 7-12, & weeks 1 – 12 in one chart for comparison
- Net Expected Points
- Net Yards / Play
- Power Rating
- Graphic showing season to sate offensive & defensive stats.
- Week 7 – 12 Offensive Metrics, Grade & Comments.
- Week 7 – 12 Defensive Metrics Grade & Comments.
- Week 1 – 6 Offensive Metrics, Grade & Comments.
- Week 1 – 6 Defensive Metrics Grade & Comments.
The graph below show each team plotted with the NET yards/play & NET Expected Points.
The chart below shows rankings for week 1-12 in NET Yards/Play, NET EP, & Power rating.
Week 1 – 12 Grades
Week 7 – 12 Grades
Week 1 – 6 Grades
GRADE A
Dallas Cowboys
Weeks 1-12
Dallas Cowboys Grade A
- Net Expected Points: 179.25 (1st)
- Net Yards/Play: 1.1 (4th)
- Power Rating: 106.83 (4th)
Weeks 7-12
Dallas Cowboys Grade A+
- Net Expected Points: 134.21 (1st)
- Net Yards/Play: 2.4 (1st)
- Power Rating: 110.4 (2nd)
Offense (Grade A+++) – If 10 gallon hats are the norm in Dallas, then Dak and the offense have been wearing the 100 gallon chapeau for the past 6 weeks. The Cowboys have simply had their way with opposing defenses: 6.7 yards/play, 53% scoring%, 8.2 yds/pass att, only 5 turnovers.
You want a good stat? Miami’s offense in the first 6 weeks, including their 70 point outburst, tallied 111 EP. Dallas’ offense the past six week, 107 EP. I don’t know if they can keep this up, but who can?
- Point/Game For 35.5 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 6.7 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 5 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 8.2 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.2 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 53.2%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 6.4% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points 107.16 (avg 9.3)
Defense (Grade A ) – The only real complaint with Dallas’ defense is they are not creating many turnovers. But that’s ok, because when they do, Bland returns it for a TD. The Cowboys are allowing a full yard less than league average in yards/play.
- Points/Game Against 17.0 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 4.3 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 6 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 4.5 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.7 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 28.2%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 8.8% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points 27.05 (avg -9.3)
If the Cowboys play in January the way the played in October and November, only the Ravens could probably stop them. Now the competition outside the Eagles hasn’t been the greatest, but you can only play who they send to show up that day. The Cowboys offense has basically eviscerated anything in its’ path, and the defense has been extremely good as well. The Cowboys look like the 10 – 1 team the Eagles are by metrics, and the Eagles look like the 8 -3 team Cowboys are by stats. This should be an interesting final 6 weeks in the NFC East.
Weeks 1 – 6
Dallas Cowboys Grade B
- Net Expected Points: 45.04
- Net Yards/Play: -0.2
- Power Rating: 103.25 (7th)
Offense (Grade C) – Yards/play below average. Yards/pass att, below average. Rush yards/att, below average. And they have only turned the ball over 5 times.
- Point For 134 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 4.9 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 5 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.8 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.0 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 44.2%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 9.6% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 8.05 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade A) – Only 83 points allowed, but yards/play, yards/pass, and rush/attempt are all at or above league average. Clearly the turnovers have been helping this defense, causing 11 so far this year. However if the turnovers stop coming, the defense looks fairly average metrics wise.
- Point Against 83 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 5.1 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 11 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.7 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.5 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 26.8%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 19.6% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 36.99 (avg -7.1)
There is a chance I am seeing ghosts on the Cowboys defense, but metrics wise it isn’t as dominant as it appeared to be in the first few weeks of the season. The Cowboys are the first team with a negative Net Yards/play at -0.2. This points to one of two things: Either the Cowboys defense is excellent and their offense is above average, or the defense is good and the offense is average. Those are really the only two ways to get to a negative Net yds/play if the defense is not the issue. If the offense comes around and the defense is excellent, this could be a good year to be a Cowboys fan.
San Francisco 49ers
Weeks 1-12
San Francisco 49ers Grade A
- Net Expected Points: 48.32 (2nd)
- Net Yards/Play: 1.6 (2nd)
- Power Rating: 107.66 (1st)
Weeks 7-12
San Francisco 49ers Grade A-
- Net Expected Points: 48.32 (4th)
- Net Yards/Play: 1.7 (3rd)
- Power Rating: 106.27 (4th)
Offense (Grade A ) – Well above average in almost every metric with an average amount of turnovers.
- Point/Game For 25.2 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 6.8 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 7 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 9.0 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.5 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 42.2%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 12.1% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points 52.09 (avg 9.3)
Defense (Grade B+ ) – All the metrics look good, but the Expected Points is decidedly average.
- Points/Game Against 16.4 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 5.1 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 10 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.7 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.0 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 30.5%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 18.2% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points -3.77 (avg -9.3)
The 49ers had a little bobble where the lost 3 in a row, but looking at the 6 weeks as a whole it was still pretty good when it comes to metrics and stats. You can see the bobble came mostly from the defense, but it could have been the result of defending short fields when Purdy went a bit scattershot for a few weeks.
Weeks 1-6
San Francisco 49ers Grade A+
- Net Expected Points: 125.12
- Net Yards/Play: 1.5
- Power Rating: 109.04 (1st)
Offense (Grade A) – Purdy’s 7.6 yrd/att is tremendous as is the nearly 50% scoring %. 6.0 yards per play will work all day long, home or away.
- Point For 184 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 6.0 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 3 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 7.6 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.5 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 47.8%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 4.5% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 78.34 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade A) – The 49ers don’t blitz(20.3%) but they do hurry, knockdown and pressure QBs which speaks to their Defensive Line.
- Point Against 85 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 4.5 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 11 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 4.7 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.0 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 29.7%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 17.2% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 46.78 (avg -7.1)
Clearly the best NFC, the 49ers right now earn the top marks in the league. With a Grade A offense and a Grade A defense, there are few holes in the armor for opposing teams to exploit. In fact, the team with the best chance to beat San Fran is probably the next team on the list because they have an offense that is off the metrics chart. After that, probably only the Browns or Ravens can keep the Niners offense in check enough to stay in the game as the Niners defense is not going to be giving away points for free either.
Baltimore Ravens
Weeks 1-12
Baltimore Ravens
Grade A
- Net Expected Points: 168.61 (3rd)
- Net Yards/Play: 1.6 (3rd)
- Power Rating: 107.42 (2nd)
Weeks 7-12
Baltimore Ravens Grade A
- Net Expected Points: 112.64 (2nd)
- Net Yards/Play: 2.0 (2nd)
- Power Rating: 110.80 (1st)
Offense (Grade A+ ) – Looking at these numbers, there is no doubt the Ravens offense has been smoking hot the past six weeks. There is literally not one metric I can even poke at, they are all excellent. I just can’t give them higher than an A+ due to the Cowboys offense.
- Point/Game For 31.8 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 6.1 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 5 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 7.2 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 5.5 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 48%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 7.7% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points 75.56 (avg 9.3)
Defense (Grade A) – I guess you could complain about the slight uptick in rush yards allowed, or demand even more turnovers, but you would really be nitpicking. If you want to try to score on this defense running does seem the better option because the 4.4 yard/pass attempt is stellar.
- Points/Game Against 16.0 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 4.4 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 11 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 4.4 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.6 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 27%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 14.8% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points 37.08 (avg -9.3)
I am not sure how anyone will be able to beat the Ravens if both units continue to play like this. The offense is humming along and the defense is doing its normal thing. Without the tiny chink in the armor with rush defense, it is one long green line for the Ravens in the metrics. If they play like this, beating the Ravens in January is going to be extremely difficult.
Weeks 1 – 6
Baltimore Ravens Grade B+
- Net Expected Points: 55.97
- Net Yards/Play: 1.2
- Power Rating: 104.04 (6th)
Offense (Grade C) – Yards/play at 5.9 is very good. Yards/pas att and rush attempt are both above league average. 9 turnovers doesn’t help but with the Ravens defense, this type of production is enough to get them to the Playoffs.
- Point For 133 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 5.9 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 9 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.2 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.3 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 35.2%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 12.7% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 2.31 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade A+) – The Ravens are neck and neck with the Browns for best defense so far in 2023. Causing 8 turnovers helps the cause, and they are slightly better against the pass than the Browns.
- Point Against 91 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 4.0 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 8 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 4.0 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.0 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 30%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 8.6% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 53.66 (avg -7.1)
If the Ravens offense comes around to the level of the Ravens defense, everyone is in serious trouble. Only the Browns can claim to have a better defense, and we know that running games travel in outdoor winter games. Jackson is the ultimate QB rushing weapon. If he can clean up his accuracy while on the run, there are going to be very few ways to stop him and the Raven offense. Meanwhile a defense that can limit any opponent to 10-14 points will give the offense the chance to win almost every game.
GRADE B
Miami Dolphins
Weeks 1-12
Miami Dolphins Grade B
- Net Expected Points: 127.53 (4th)
- Net Yards/Play: 2.0 (1st)
- Power Rating: 106.98 (3rd)
Weeks 7-12
Miami Dolphins Grade B+
- Net Expected Points: 35.23 (6th)
- Net Yards/Play: 1.2 (4th)
- Power Rating: 107.29 (3rd)
Offense (Grade B- ) – Everything has fallen back to Earth for the Miami offense. It was pretty average with a sprinkle of extra turnovers the past 6 weeks.
- Point/Game For 23.2 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 5.8 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 10 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.6 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.5 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 34.8%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 17.5% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points -1.27 (avg 9.3)
Defense (Grade A ) – The defense has been playing extremely well as the metrics show. The 3.5 rush/attempt and 4.6 yards/play are sparkling and they are creating turnovers.
- Points/Game Against 19.6 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 4.6 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 9 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.3 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.5 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 26.5%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 15.6% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points 36.5 (avg -9.3)
The Dolphins offense has come back to reality, but their defense has picked up the slack. This is probably a better combination for December and the playoffs as the stout defense should travel well and keep them in games if weather were to be a factor. Getting the running game going again would help.
Weeks 1 – 6
Miami Dolphins Grade A
- Net Expected Points: 92.3
- Net Yards/Play: 2.8
- Power Rating: 106.67 (2nd)
Offense (Grade A+++) – The Dolphins are averaging over 3 points per drive and over 100 Expected Points.
- Point For 225 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 8.0 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 9 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 7.2 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.4 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 50%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 12.9% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 111 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade C-) – The defense itself is pretty average in the primary metrics, but the expected point at -19 is not good.
- Point Against 152 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 5.2 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 5 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.0 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.1 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 37.9%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 7.6% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -19.12 (avg -7.1)
The most dangerous team in the AFC and the NFL, the Dolphins offset an average defense with a extremely potent offense. You can see their NEt EP isnt close to the 49ers, but their Net Yards/Play is completely off the chart. This is due to the explosive offense that seemingly scores at will. A teacher would be hard pressed to give a student an A when the two grades they received are A+++ and C-, but when you can score 40 points at will you can put The Sisters of the Poor on defense and still win most games.
Buffalo Bills
Weeks 1-12
Buffalo Bills Grade B
- Net Expected Points: 122.48 (5th)
- Net Yards/Play: 0.6 (6th)
- Power Rating: 104.38 (5th)
Weeks 7-12
Buffalo Bills Grade B
- Net Expected Points: 38.96 (5th)
- Net Yards/Play: 0.7 (5th)
- Power Rating: 102.73 (7th)
Offense (Grade A- ) – The turnovers have been lethal, but the production of the offense has been quite good. Without the turnovers this would be an A grade, but they have happened so thus the deduction.
- Point/Game For 25.8 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 5.8 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 11 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.8 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.4 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 40.2%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 16.5% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points 55.51 (avg 9.3)
Defense (Grade C ) – Here is where Buffalo has taken a step backwards. These are average, if not slightly below average numbers. They are not horrendous, but they aren’t good either.
- Points/Game Against 23.0 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 5.1 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 8 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.9 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.0 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 39.6%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 10.5% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points -16.55(avg -9.3)
This is pretty simple. Buffalo has an excellent offense that was plagued by very costly turnovers. The defense is starting to leak oil with injuries playing a part. McDermott’s game management hasn’t been helping but this would seem to be a question of whether the offense can carry the defense enough to make the playoffs. All the metrics say that the Bills are better than their weeks 7 – 12 record, but they dug themselves a huge hole to get out of with a poor, and a bit unlucky, 6 weeks.
Weeks 1 – 6
Buffalo Bills Grade A
- Net Expected Points: 83.52
- Net Yards/Play: 0.5
- Power Rating: 106.03 (3rd)
Offense (Grade A) – Yards/play and pass yards/attempt are both identical to San Fran and the scoring% is within 2%.
- Point For 173 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 6.0 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 9 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 7.6 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.4 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 46%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 14.3% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 69.23 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade B) – The Bills don’t give up a lot of points, but their defensive metrics are a bit dodgy. The most dodgy is the 5.4 yards/rush attempt which is really quite bad.
- Point Against 89 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 5.5 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 13 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.5 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 5.4 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 26.6%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 20.3% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 14.29 (avg -7.1)
The only thing missing from the Bills claim to the top 2 spots is the questionable run defense. I am not sure how that plays out in Buffalo in Dec & Jan. They have also created a lot of turnovers on defense which could be helping the B grade on defense. If they are actually worse than a B on defense, it would not bode well for them for a deep run in the playoffs. They also have the issue of Miami in the division which could mean 12 wins gets them the #5 seed for the playoffs.
Kansas City Chiefs
Weeks 1-12
Kansas City Chiefs Grade B
- Net Expected Points: 122.48 (5th)
- Net Yards/Play: 0.6 (6th)
- Power Rating: 104.38 (5th)
Weeks 7-12
Kansas City Chiefs Grade B
- Net Expected Points: 20.92 (11th)
- Net Yards/Play: 0.6 (7th)
- Power Rating: 103.06 (6th)
Offense (Grade C+ ) – Too many turnovers, and fairly average looking stats for the offense the past 6 weeks. The running game still needs work, but the passing games has seemingly lost some of its firepower.
- Point/Game For 21.8 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 5.7 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 10 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.5 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.1 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 34.2%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 16.5% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points 16.84 (avg 9.3)
Defense (Grade B+ ) – They didn’t create many turnovers, and the rush defense got a little dinged up. The lack of turnover led to low EP, but the 27.3% scoring% is nice and 19 ppg against should work if the offense comes around to its normal potency.
- Points/Game Against 18.2 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 5.1 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 5 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.3 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.7 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 27.3%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 9.4% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points 4.08 (avg -9.3)
The Chiefs, like the Eagles, tend to outplay their stats. The past 6 weeks have not been the Chief’s best football when it comes to stats or metrics, but they win games. The defense is clearly the better unit right now, and the offense is not being helped by not having a reliable receiver outside of Rice. Kelce is great, but you can’t throw it to him every time and his snaps are being monitored by Reid it seems to keep him healthy, or healthier. If the defense creates a few more turnovers and the offense cuts back on them, it will be back to status quo.
Weeks 1 – 6
Kansas City Chiefs Grade A-
- Net Expected Points: 72.59
- Net Yards/Play: 1.0
- Power Rating: 105.24 (4th)
Offense (Grade B) – The Chiefs, like a few other teams, have a good to great offense that is being bogged down by turnovers.
- Point For 147 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 5.7 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 9 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.7 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.3 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 46.8%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 12.9% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 50.69 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade B+) – 88 points against, 4.7 yards/play, 9 turnovers created. The only blemish is the 4.5 yards/rush metric which is above league average.
- Point Against 88 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 4.7 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 9 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 4.9 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.5 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 28.6%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 14.8% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 21.9 (avg -7.1)
The Chiefs look to be a final 4 team based on the metrics. The offense is very good, albeit with an average run game. The defense is very good, the one exception of rush defense which is slightly under par. It all point to, you don’t want to pass against the Chiefs, and you don’t want the Chiefs to pass on you. Best hope? Bad weather which negates or minimizes the pass game effectiveness and turn it into a ground war. Hoping for wind and rain isn’t much of a game plan, but it may be the best way to beat the Chiefs on both sides of the ball.
Philadelphia Eagles
Weeks 1-12
Philadelphia Eagles Grade B
- Net Expected Points: 64.69 (7th)
- Net Yards/Play: 0.2 (10th)
- Power Rating: 102.34 (7th)
Weeks 7-12
Philadelphia Eagles Grade B
- Net Expected Points: 22.91 (8th)
- Net Yards/Play: -0.2 (19th)
- Power Rating: 101.61 (8th)
Offense (Grade A- ) – The Eagles offense is a bit mystifying. Dead average for yards/play, a little above avg for pass yards/ att, and below average for rush yard / att. Yet they score a ton of points and generate EP. A guess? The Eagles ability to convert 3rd/4th downs allows their offense to be very efficient scoring points, while being very average on any given single play.
- Point/Game For 31.0 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 5.3 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 7 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.7 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.9 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 43.2%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 12.5% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points 46.67 (avg 9.3)
Defense (Grade C-) – The defense looks below average by the metrics. Literally at or below average in every stat, not by much, but below. The -24.5 EP is not good at all and they aren’t creating that many turnovers. This could be the Eagles achilles heel.
- Points/Game Against 24.1 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 5.5 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 6 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.1 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.6 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 36.1%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 10.9% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points -24.5 (avg -9.3)
The Eagles have been an enigma to me, the algorithm, the power ratings, and the metrics. They have been 7th or 8th best team by every metric except record where they are far and away the best. Perhaps a secret love child of Riverboat Ron Rivera, All In Nick Sirianni’s go for broke style on offense has to play a major factor in how the Eagles outperform their stats. Maybe the referees are helping, the OL is just a beast, and the ball is bouncing the right way at critical times, but Philadelphia’s record is built a bit like a house of cards. The need to fix the defense as the offense can’t always have a good day.
Weeks 1 – 6
Philadelphia Eagles Grade B
- Net Expected Points: 42.52
- Net Yards/Play: 0.6
- Power Rating: 103.07 (8th)
Offense (Grade B) – The rush yards/att might be slightly lower due to the amount of Push Tush plays, but the 6.5 yards/pass attempt show more of a short/medium pass attack than the explosive plays the Eagles were making last year.
- Point For 155 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 5.5 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 9 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.5 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.5 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 47.6%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 14.3% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 47.05 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade C) – The Eagles are above average against both the run and pass, leading to above average in yards/play. But points against, turnovers, and scoring% are all average, as is Expected Points at -5.
- Point Against 124 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 4.9 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 8 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.5 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.6 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 33.9%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 11.3% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -4.93 (avg -7.1)
I don’t know if it is Superbowl malaise but the Eagles just seem to be a good team going through the motions through 6 weeks. They appear as if they feel they can turn it on and get back to the NFC Championship game by going through the motions and relying on their talent level. However the offense is a notch below what it was last year, and the defense is dealing with age, injuries and a new coordinator. The Eagles will get back to the playoffs, but in current form they won’t go very far.
Detroit Lions
Weeks 1-12
Detroit Lions Grade B
- Net Expected Points: 50.5 (8th)
- Net Yards/Play: 0.6 (7th)
- Power Rating: 102.32 (8th)
Weeks 7-12
Detroit Lions Grade C
- Net Expected Points: -14.12 (19th)
- Net Yards/Play: 0.1 (10th)
- Power Rating: 99.97 (15th)
Offense (Grade B+ ) – The offense has been turning the ball over too much the past 6 weeks, but they have remained efficient and very potent. All the metrics are well above average except for the aforementioned turnovers. The run game has been quite good the past 6 weeks.
- Point/Game For 25.2 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 6.0 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 11 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.5 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 5.2 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 39.7%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 17.6% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points 36.42 (avg 9.3)
Defense (Grade F ) – This is easy. The Lions defense has been terrible for 6 weeks. Not creating turnovers, -50 EP, pass and rush defense are being gashed and scoring% of 42.9%. Want to know why the Lions are losing? Look no further.
- Points/Game Against 28.1 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 5.9 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 4 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 7.2 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.5 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 42.9%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 8.3% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points -50.54(avg -9.3)
The Lions need to fix their defense, and fast, if they want to grab a decent seed for the playoffs. The offense is doing its thing nicely, but the inuries to the defense appear as though they are in positions without adequate backups. If the offense loses any of its potency due to OL injuries or injury to a skill player, it might end the Lions hopes for a deep playoff run.
Weeks 1 – 6
Detroit Lions Grade A-
- Net Expected Points: 64.62
- Net Yards/Play: 1.1
- Power Rating: 104.67 (5th)
Offense (Grade B) – Love the net yards per pass attempt at 7.3 and 6 turnovers is a number you can live with when putting up 28 pts/game.
- Point For 168 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 5.8 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 6 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 7.3 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.0 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 39.7%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 8.8% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 47.14 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade B+) – But this defense does everything well, starting with the paltry 3.3 yards/rush metric that is outstanding and forces opponents into almost being one dimensional.
- Point Against 113 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 4.7 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 8 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.4 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.3 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 32.3%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 12.3% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 17.48 (avg -7.1)
I think the Lions may be a B+ team, but after decades of waiting to be relevent I am going to give them a few teacher’s pet points and bump the grade up to a long sought A-. The offense is solid. The passing game is well oiled. The defensive line is productive. The all around defense has been just short of excellent. Would it be great if the running game was better, sure. But coming from where the Lions have been for years and years, this is a team of hope that can deliver some measure of salvation to a long suffering fan base.
Minnesota Vikings
Weeks 1-12
Minnesota Vikings Grade B
- Net Expected Points: 49.34 (9th)
- Net Yards/Play: 0.6 (8th)
- Power Rating: 102.04 (9th)
Weeks 7-12
Minnesota Vikings Grade A-
- Net Expected Points: 49.95 (3rd)
- Net Yards/Play: 0.3 (8th)
- Power Rating: 104.13 (5th)
Offense (Grade B ) – Too many turnovers and the run game has bogged down a bit, but scoring points and EP regularly.
- Point/Game For 22.3 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 5.4 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 11 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.7 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.8 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 43.8%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 14.3% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points 30.43 (avg 9.3)
Defense (Grade A ) – If you really want to nitpick the 35.9% scoring % is a tad high, but that could easily be from a couple short field turnovers by the offense. The Vikings won games because of their defense during the past six weeks.
- Points/Game Against 17.8 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 5.1 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 10 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.8 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.7 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 35.9%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 14% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points 19.52 (avg -9.3)
The problem the Vikings have is part of their offense grade and stats are when from Cousins was healthy. Right now the offense is more a C-/D+ offense. With the defense playing the way it has the past 6 weeks the Vikings can stay in the playoff hunt, but any drop off and it may be too much to overcome the failings of the offense post Cousins injury.
Weeks 1 – 6
Minnesota Vikings Grade C
- Net Expected Points: -0.61
- Net Yards/Play: 0.7
- Power Rating: 99.96 (16th)
Offense (Grade C+) – The absolute killer and bottom line on the Vikings offense has been the turnovers, 13 of them to lead the league. The 32.8% scoring % is low, but when factoring in all the turnovers, it actually shows that the Vikings can be a Grade B offense when they hold onto the football.
- Point For 129 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 5.6 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 13 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.3 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.0 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 32.8%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 19.7% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 11.91 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade C) – I am not sure the Vikings defense is that bad, just that they have been on the field too often given the offense’s penchant for turning the ball over. This has led to some short fields and easy points against this defense.
- Point Against 135 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 4.9 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 6 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.0 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.7 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 37.5%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 9.4% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -12.52 (avg -7.1)
By power ratings, the Vikings are the most average team sporting a 99.96 power rating, a mere 4/100 away from being perfectly average. It shouldn’t be a big surprise when your offense gets a Grade C+, and your defense gets a C. The Vikings have been disappointing record wise, but the metrics favor them. The 0.7 net yards/play is eveidence of a good defense making up for a volatile and clumbsy offense. Even so the offense is putting up yards, they just put the ball on the ground way too much, 13 turnovers in all. If the offense holds on to the ball and the defense can get a rest and play against a long field behind them, the Vikings can pass their way into the playoffs, most likely to be knocked out in the first game.
GRADE C
New Orleans Saints
Weeks 1-12
New Orleans Saints Grade C
- Net Expected Points: 23.07 (10th)
- Net Yards/Play: -0.1 (17th)
- Power Rating: 100.16 (14th)
Weeks 7-12
New Orleans Saints Grade C
- Net Expected Points: -3.09 (17th)
- Net Yards/Play: -0.2 (20th)
- Power Rating: 98.43 (20th)
Offense (Grade B-) – The Saints offense has been pretty good the past 6 weeks. If they played like this all season the Saints would win 10 games.
- Point/Game For 24.0 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 5.4 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 6.0 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.6 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.2 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 37.5%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 9.8% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points 20.53 (avg 9.3)
Defense (Grade D ) – The Saints defense, on the other hand, has fallen off a cliff. This unit carried the New Orleans the first 6 weeks, and now has been a massive anchor in the water they are dragging.
- Points/Game Against 24.4 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 5.8 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 10 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.3 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 5.1 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 34.8%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 15.7% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points -23.62(avg -9.3)
Here is another team that has two units that play well at different times, but rarely at the same time. When the offense is good, the defense is terrible. When the defense is decent, the offense lays an egg or turns the ball over. If you saw each unit on its best day, you would say playoff team. It’s just that that rarely seems to happen on Sundays.
New Orleans Saints Grade B
- Net Expected Points: 26.16
- Net Yards/Play: 0.0
- Power Rating: 101.89 (10th)
Offense (Grade C-) – I can’t see the Saints going anywhere with this offense but they play in an awful division that someone has to win. If you are a Saints fan I guess this is the hope you can cling to because your offense basically stinks.
- Point For 109 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 4.6 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 8 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.4 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.4 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 31.3%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 9% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -9.26 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade A) – I kind of mocked your offense by saying it basically stinks. But your defense is another story. It is fair to say it has been better than the Cowboys with better metrics in Yards/play, yards/pass and rush/attempt.
- Point Against 96 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 4.6 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 10 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.1 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.9 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 29.2%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 13.9% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 35.42 (avg -7.1)
The Saints are the classic case of how far can you go when one side of the ball is excellent and the other side of the ball is bordering on poor. The defense is top 5. The offense is bottom 10. The 0.0 Net Yards/play is not a sign that they can go out and beat good opponents. The power rating has them as about 2 points better than an average team(100). Assuming they win the division, they probably get Eagles or Cowboys in round 1 and go out right away. Playoffs are always nice, but just showing up to be shown the door means an average/late draft position that isn’t as likely to push them to the next level.
Houston Texans
Weeks 1-12
Houston Texans Grade C
- Net Expected Points: 18.64 (11th)
- Net Yards/Play: 0.3 (9th)
- Power Rating: 101.05 (10th)
Weeks 7-12
Houston Texans Grade C+
- Net Expected Points: 6.83 (14th)
- Net Yards/Play: 0.7 (6th)
- Power Rating: 101.26 (9th)
Offense (Grade B+) – The offense has turned the corner. Stround and Dell should be co-rookies of the year as I am not sure either is as good as they have been without the other. And Nico Collins is balling. If they find a run game, watch out.
- Point/Game For 24.8 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 6.3 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 8 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 7.6 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.2 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 38.6%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 13.7% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points 38.72 (avg 9.3)
Defense (Grade D) – The Texans defense is very good against the run, and horrible against the pass. This means a lot of high scoring shootouts, especially if your are allowing opponents to score 42% of the time.
- Points/Game Against 23.3 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 5.6 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 6 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 7.0 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.3 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 42.3%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 9.1% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points -31.89 (avg -9.3)
As said in the week 6 grades, no one expected the Texans to be this good, this fast. They clearly won the best 2023 rookie qb battle, and the receiving unit(Collins, Dell, Schultz) is as good a trio anywhere save SF. If DeMeco Ryans can sprinkle a little pixie dust on the defense and get them up to average level, the Texans can be playing in January. Even if they miss the playoffs, this has been a hugely successful years for Houston.
Weeks 1 – 6
Houston Texans Grade C+
- Net Expected Points: 11.81
- Net Yards/Play: -0.1
- Power Rating: 100.85 (13th)
Offense (Grade B+) – The surprise is a robust 6.8 net yards/pass attempt, so CJ Stroud looks to be the right pick. He’s getting the ball downfield and protecting the football, two things rookie QB’s normally have issues with. The worry? A paltry 3.2 yards/rush attempt.
- Point For 135 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 5.3 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 3 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.8 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.2 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 42.4%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 4.5% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 32.78 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade C-) – Expected points at -21 is not good, but I am not too worried as DeMeco Ryans is a defensive guy and he just might not have the players he needs on defense yet to build the kind of defense he wants.
- Point Against 113 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 5.4 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 13 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.6 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.9 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 33.3%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 12.7% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -20.97 (avg -7.1)
The Texans are overachieving to the point of being a playoff contender through 6 weeks. They can’t run the ball at all, 3.2yards/carry, and they haven’t turned the ball over, only 3. Stroud has been a stud, but laying it all on his shoulders and expecting no turnovers is really living on the edge as an offense. Defensively the Texans have been below average, but opportunistic. A pessimist says the turnover even out and the offense and defense both get worse. The optimist says, you didnt expect what they have done so far so why not just watch and see what happens. Maybe it is their year to win a division through sheer grit and determination.
Cleveland Browns
Weeks 1-12
Cleveland Browns Grade C
- Net Expected Points: 17.18 (12th)
- Net Yards/Play: 0.0 (16th)
- Power Rating: 100.78 (12th)
Weeks 7-12
Cleveland Browns Grade C+
- Net Expected Points: 9.2 (13th)
- Net Yards/Play: -0.7 (27th)
- Power Rating: 100.98 (12th)
Offense (Grade D ) – They have scored more points than average but almost every other metric is poor. Probably getting good field position from the defense that is helping scoring%.
- Point/Game For 24.0 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 4.5 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 11 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 4.9 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.9 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 37.3%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 12.6% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points -18.67 (avg 9.3)
Defense (Grade A- ) – Generating a lot of turnovers, but also having to offset a lot of turnovers by their own offense that puts the defense having to defend short fields as seen in ppg against even though scoring% is quite good at 28%.
- Points/Game Against 22.6 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 5.2 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 12 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.7 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.7 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 28%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 16.3% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points 27.77 (avg -9.3)
I am not breaking any news by saying the Browns offense is not pulling their share of the weight. With even an average offense the Browns are a playoff team. With this offense, it is going to take some good fortune to even slip in and get eliminated in the wild card round. It shows it is very hard to win with a great defense and poor offense. In this era, you are probably much better off with a great offense and a poor defense, as the great offense can probably get some help from penalties to make them more lethal.
Weeks 1 – 6
Cleveland Browns Grade C+
- Net Expected Points: 7.98
- Net Yards/Play: 0.7
- Power Rating: 100.58 (15th)
Offense (Grade F+) – 4.5 yards/pass attempt is terrible. 4.5 yards per play is terrible. 12 turnovers is awful. The running game and a scoring% in the low 30’s is the only thing keeping the Browns in games if their defense decides to give up a point or two, which they don’t very often.
- Point For 95 (avg 125) [5 games]
- Yards/Play 4.5 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 12 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 4.5 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.5 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 31.3%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 18.8% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -49.03 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade A+) – The Browns are killing it on defense. And they are doing it without causing any turnovers, just 4 so far this season. But all the other metrics are ridiculous: 15.5 pts/game, 3.8 yards/play, 4.1 yards/pass att, 3.5 yards per/rush, 18.8% scoring% and 57 Expected Points.
- Point Against 77 (avg 125) [5 games]
- Yards/Play 3.8 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 4 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 4.1 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.5 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 18.8%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 6.3% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 57.01 (avg -7.1)
The Browns are the Jekyll & Hyde of the NFL. An F+ offense, and an A+ defense. If the offense can find a way to score 17 points on Sundays they are going to win 9-10 games. If they don’t, they are going to win 6-8. If any team should be looking for help at the trade deadline it should be the Browns. They need some kind of juice on offense or they are going to waste a legendary season by their staunch defense.
Los Angeles Rams
Weeks 1-12
Los Angeles Rams Grade C
- Net Expected Points: 15.14 (13th)
- Net Yards/Play: 0.2 (11th)
- Power Rating: 100.82 (11th)
Weeks 7-12
Los Angeles Rams Grade D
- Net Expected Points: -17.99 (22nd)
- Net Yards/Play: 0.0 (12th)
- Power Rating: 98.95 (17th)
Offense (Grade C-) – Stafford’s injury is making these stats a bit worse than the Rams offense actually is. They are fairly average but can be good on a given day.
- Point/Game For 18.8 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 5.2 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 6 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.4 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 33.3%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 11% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points -1 (avg 9.3)
Defense (Grade D) – The Rams defense hasn’t been bad, just kind of below average. But compound below average with no turnovers, and you kind of morph into bad, at least statistically.
- Points/Game Against 23.0 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 5.2 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 4 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.2 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.1 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 36.5%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 7.3% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points -21.99 (avg -9.3)
The Rams may not be a good team, but I wouldn’t want to play them on a given Sunday. You don’t know what flavor you are going to get, but once in a while you get the flavor that scores 35 points against you. Not much was expected of the Rams this year based on last year, so all in all this has been a pretty nice turnaround without hitting rock bottom for several years. Not sure what they do when Stafford can’t play anymore, but that is a bridge to cross when they come to it.
Weeks 1 – 6
Los Angeles Rams Grade B
- Net Expected Points: 37.13
- Net Yards/Play: 0.4
- Power Rating: 102.68 (9th)
Offense (Grade B) – The Rams are the perfect Grade B Offense. At, or above, league average on every metric, while keeping the turnovers to just 6.
- Point For 138 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 5.6 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 6 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.4 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.2 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 47.5%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 8.2% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 48.94 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade C) – They are slightly worse than the Packers against the pass, but are also not generating turnovers and are just average against the run. The Expected Points at -12 is also slightly below average. Everything here points to average.
- Point Against 117 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 5.2 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 5 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.8 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.3 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 39.7%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 7.9% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -11.81 (avg -7.1)
I didn’t think the Rams were going to be as good as they are on both sides of the ball. The offense is good, performing above average in almost every metric. The defense is average without a glaring weakness. This might be one of McVay’s better coaching efforts and the front office and scouting should get a tip of the cap for the rookie contributions they have gotten. I don’t think the Rams are a team built to go deep into the playoffs, but it would be a great achievement to get there this year, and right now if they simply hold course, they will probably get in.
Green Bay Packers
Weeks 1-12
Green Bay Packers Grade C
- Net Expected Points: 14.69 (14th)
- Net Yards/Play: 0.1 (13th)
- Power Rating: 100.22 (13th)
Weeks 7-12
Green Bay Packers Grade B
- Net Expected Points: 23.28 (7th)
- Net Yards/Play: 0.2 (9th)
- Power Rating: 101.07 (11th)
Offense (Grade B+ ) – Jordan Love has turned it around when you compare weeks 7 – 12 to weeks 1 -6. He jumped from 5.8 py/att to 6.6, and the running game followed suit jumping from an abyssmal 3.5 yards/att to a healthy 4.7.
- Point/Game For 19.7 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 5.7 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 6 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.6 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.7 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 32.7%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 9.3% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points 34.77 (avg 9.3)
Defense (Grade C+) – All the metrics and stats are decidedly average or slightly below save one, points against. Probably a bit of luck helping the Packers defense keep points off the board.
- Points/Game Against 18.1 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 5.5 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 7 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.3 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.5 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 35.4%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 11.5% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points -11.49 (avg -9.3)
With the offense averaging just under 20 ppg and the defense in this form giving up 18 ppg there is little room for bad luck. The Packers don’t turn the ball over and they don’t take the ball away so its often a field position battle. If the defense can pick it up a notch and the offense stays on this pace, the could hang around to snatch the final wild card.
Weeks 1 – 6
Green Bay Packers Grade C
- Net Expected Points: -8.59
- Net Yards/Play: 0.0
- Power Rating:99.38 (18th)
Offense (Grade C) – The Packers probably earned their Grade C is the first few games, because they haven’t been even average of the last few games. 4.9 yards/pay, 3.5 rush yards/attempt are both below par.
- Point For 113 (avg 125) [5 games]
- Yards/Play 4.9 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 6 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.8 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.5 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 33.9%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 10.7% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 2.30 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade C) – The Packers defense doesn’t look that bad on the primary metrics. They aren’t creating turnovers which can’t be helping, but they are average or better against the run and pass.
- Point Against 113 (avg 125) [5 games]
- Yards/Play 4.9 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 5 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.5 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.3 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 38.2%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 9.1% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -10.89 (avg -7.1)
The Packers issue is that they have no idea what they have on offense or at QB. Do they have the Jordan Love of games 1 and 2, or do they have the Jordan Love of games 4 & 5? The fact they can’t run the ball well cannot be helping ease Love into a rhythm in his first year at the helm. The defense is hanging in there without the help of a lot of turnovers, just 5 so far. With the early Love at QB, the Packers can grab the 6 or 7 seed. With recent Love, the Packers will win 6-7 games.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Weeks 1-12
Jacksonville Jaguars Grade C
- Net Expected Points: 14.62 (15th)
- Net Yards/Play: -0.3 (20th)
- Power Rating: 100.06 (15th)
Weeks 7-12
Jacksonville Jaguars Grade C+
- Net Expected Points: -1.91 (16th)
- Net Yards/Play: 0.0 (15th)
- Power Rating: 98.93 (18th)
Offense (Grade B-) – They can’t run the ball and they turned it over too much, but 7.1 yards per pass attempt will work as will scoring 39%(though in the 40’s would be better).
- Point/Game For 22.4 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 5.5 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 10 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 7.1 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.6 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 39%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 16% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points 16.87 (avg 9.3)
Defense (Grade C-) – The defense has taken a step back the past 6 weeks. They kept the scoring% and ppga down, but the other metrics are all in the red. -19 EP is due to the lack of turnovers created.
- Points/Game Against 20.6 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 5.5 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 5 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.3 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.4 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 31.7%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 8.5% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points -18.78 (avg -9.3)
The Jaguars are a bit of a two faced team. The first 6 weeks, the offense was kind of dull and the defense was good. The past 6 weeks, the offense has been good and the defense has been kind of meh. They should have enough to win the division and get a home game in the playoffs, but that could be a very powerful 5 seed. The Jaguars really need to round into form if they have aspirations of getting to the AFC Championship.
Weeks 1 – 6
Jacksonville Jaguars Grade B-
- Net Expected Points: 16.53
- Net Yards/Play: -0.6
- Power Rating: 101.19 (11th)
Offense (Grade C) – But 4.9 yards/play, 3.8 yards/rush, -2 expected points….These are not the calling card of an offensive guru at work.
- Point For 149 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 4.9 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 8 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.9 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.8 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 35.6%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 11% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -2.15 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade B+) – I kind of got on Peterson for the Jags offense, but he deserves credit for the Jags defense. They arent all that great against the pass, but they are pretty stout against the run as shown by the 3.6 yards/rush metric.
- Point Against 122 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 5.5 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 15 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.5 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.6 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 27.5%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 20.3% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 18.68 (avg -7.1)
The Jags need to get the offense up to the same level as the defense. Most would have assumed with Peterson and Lawrence, the offensive side of the ball would be the side that carries the team and looks more polished. That has hardly been the case. It has been the Jags defense that has garnered and deserved the spotlight thus far, causing 15 turnovers already. Can all the turnovers be making the Jags defense look better than it really is, sure(see net yards/play of -0.6). All the other metrics are above average meaning if the turnovers dry up, the Jags could be giving up a lot more points and yards on D.
Indianapolis Colts
Weeks 1-12
Indianapolis Colts Grade C
- Net Expected Points: 1.25 (16th)
- Net Yards/Play: 0.0 (15th)
- Power Rating: 99.82 (16th)
Weeks 7-12
Indianapolis Colts Grade B
- Net Expected Points: 22.65 (9th)
- Net Yards/Play: 0.0 (13th)
- Power Rating: 101.18 (10th)
Offense (Grade B ) – The offense has been slightly above average to good at times. The seem to score more points than their stats suggest they should so many getting a bit lucky or taking advantage of short fields when given them.
- Point/Game For 25.8 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 5.3 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 8 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.2 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.4 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 36.1%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 11.9% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points 17.34 (avg 9.3)
Defense (Grade C+ ) – Pass defense has gotten better but rush defense has gotten worse. They are creating turnovers but also giving up points. Kind of one step forward, one step back.
- Points/Game Against 23.4 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 5.3 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 10 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.5 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.7 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 36.9%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 15.9% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points 5.31 (avg -9.3)
The Colts look like the kind of team that could grab the 6th or 7th slot for the playoffs or miss the playoffs entirely by a game. They are literally right on the edge of where the metrics and stats need to be, but they have almost no room for error. Protect the ball, be disciplined regarding penalties, and slip in the playoffs is best case scenario.
Weeks 1 – 6
Indianapolis Colts Grade C-
- Net Expected Points: -21.4
- Net Yards/Play: 0.0
- Power Rating: 98.45 (21st)
Offense (Grade C-) – The Colts metrics look much better than the final product appears to be. They score points, but are literally average in every other important metric: yards/play 5.1, yards/pass 5.8, rush/attempt 4.2, scoring% 34.7%.
- Point For 140(avg 125)
- Yards/Play 5.1 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 8 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.8 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.2 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 34.7%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 11.1% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -6.91 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade C) – It would appear that the Colts are giving up points because they have a leaky pass defense, 6.3 yards/pass attempt. There are good against the run and they are creating some turnovers with 8.
- Point Against 152 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 5.1 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 8 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.3 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.7 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 38.7%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 10.7% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -14.49 (avg -7.1)
The Colts are just good enough to give teams problems and just bad enough to give themselves problems. The offense isn’t terrible, especially considering the combo of a rookie and the moustache as the QBs and no Jonathon Taylor. Pass defense seems to be the bugaboo of the defense, but it is serviceable enough to keep the Colts in games most of the time. There is just no pizazz or anyone to be really afraid of when scheming against the Colts. If you are a good team it seems you can use the NFL generic game plan against them and beat them by 7 points.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Weeks 1-12
Pittsburgh Steelers Grade C
- Net Expected Points: -8.26 (17th)
- Net Yards/Play: -0.5 (24th)
- Power Rating: 99.27 (20th)
Weeks 7-12
Pittsburgh Steelers Grade B-
- Net Expected Points: 16.05 (12th)
- Net Yards/Play: 0.1 (11th)
- Power Rating: 98.30 (21st)
Offense (Grade C- ) – The Steelers can run the ball and don’t turn it over. Their passing game is extremely limited which leads to low points scored and scoring%. When you only turn the ball over 3 times in 6 weeks, you should put up much better numbers. The only player putting up better numbers is the Steelers punter.
- Point/Game For 17.2 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 5.3 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 3 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.3 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 5.2 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 32.6%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 4.5% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points 16.72 (avg 9.3)
Defense (Grade A- ) – The Steelers defense has been doing the share of the rowing although EP really doesn’t care for the unit. All the metrics say the defense was a clear strength yet the OFF & DEF EP numbers are pretty close to equal as far as EP above average(between 7 – 9 points for both)
- Points/Game Against 15.3 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 5.2 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 9 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.0 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.8 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 33.4%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 14.2% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points -0.67 (avg -9.3)
The Steelers are weaving some magic because the stats say they should be a .500 team. It is literally as if they do just enough to win the majority of games. It is never easy, and often hard to watch, but at the end of the day they somehow score a few more points than their opponent. Statistically I can’t really explain it other than to tip the cap to Coach Tomlin and say, Do that voodoo you do so well.
Weeks 1 – 6
Pittsburgh Steelers Grade C-
- Net Expected Points: -24.31
- Net Yards/Play: -1.1
- Power Rating: 98.24 (22nd)
Offense (Grade D-) – Well the Kenny Pickett revolution seems to be on hold in Pitsburgh for the time being. This is not all Pickett’s fault as yards/pass attempt is one of the Steelers better, poor metrics at 5.3 yards/attempt. He has also kept the turnovers down to just 6. What the Steelers cannot do is run the ball.
- Point For 79 (avg 125) [5 games]
- Yards/Play 4.5 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 6 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.3 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.4 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 25%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 8.3% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -38.37 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade B) – The Pittsburgh Steelers play good defense. You could probably have written that sentence every year for the past 50 years and been correct 95% of the time. Their run defense is a bit leaky(4.8 yards/rush), but the pass defense is solid and they create turnovers.
- Point Against 110 (avg 125) [5 games]
- Yards/Play 5.6(avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 11 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.6 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.8 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 34.4%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 18% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 14.06 (avg -7.1)
Net yards/play of -1.1 with a good defense tells you how far down the Steelers offense has stooped this season. Pickett has regressed, the running game has regressed. Tomlin’s hairline has had to regress watching the QB play and characters running the offensive ship. Mason Rudolph & Devlin Hodges were never going to the Pro Bowl, but they didnt cost a first round pick or the money Pickett is getting for doing the same mediocre job. The defense is doing its normal thing but it is asking a lot of them to hang with the Ravens and Browns with no help from their offense. If the Bengals turn it around, the Steelers are going to be the 6 win team at the bottom of this division somehow.
Atlanta Falcons
Weeks 1-12
Atlanta Falcons Grade C
- Net Expected Points: -12.24 (18th)
- Net Yards/Play: 0.1 (12th)
- Power Rating: 99.55 (17th)
Weeks 7-12
Atlanta Falcons Grade C+
- Net Expected Points: 3.65 (15th)
- Net Yards/Play: -0.1 (16th)
- Power Rating: 100.24 (13th)
Offense (Grade C) – I like Ridder more now than I did after 6 weeks. He is taking what the defense gives much more than he was after 6 weeks. No one will confuse them with the 2000 Rams, but they are a decent average offense right now.
- Point/Game For 22.8 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 5.4 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 8 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.1 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.8 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 38.3%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 14.3% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points 4.69 (avg 9.3)
Defense (Grade C+) – The Falcons defense is playing about the same as the offense, about average or a tick above. Normally this would be a building season, but in the NFC South a tick above average may be enough to win it.
- Points/Game Against 22.2 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 5.5 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 8 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.5 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.5 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 41.5 %(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 13.4% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points -1.04 (avg -9.3)
The Falcons have an opportunity in 2023 to get into the playoffs with a young QB. That would be a nice accomplishment after how the year started, and how Ridder looked after 6 weeks. If they can simply play the way they have the past 6 weeks, they should have a better than 50% chance to win the division. If they revert back to the first 6 weeks form, its going to be a slog to the finish with the rest of the division muddling along side them.
Weeks 1 – 6
Atlanta Falcons Grade C
- Net Expected Points: -15.89
- Net Yards/Play: 0.3
- Power Rating: 98.85 (19th)
Offense (Grade D+) – The Falcons are simply below average at just about everything offensively. I am not sure Ridder is an NFL starting QB, and most of the metrics would seem to support that conclusion. Yards/play, pass yard/att, and turnovers are all below average, much of it falling back on the QB performance.
- Point For 99 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 5.0 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 10 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.7 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.0 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 29.9%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 14.9% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -20.34 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade B-) – The Falcons defense appears to be good at everything save one thing, creating turnovers. Yards/play is a healthy 4.7, yards/pass is 5.5, rush/attempt is 3.7….but the lack of turnovers is just hurting the units grade.
- Point Against 120 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 4.7 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 4 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.5 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.7 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 34.3%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 6% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 4.45 (avg -7.1)
The good news, the 0.3 net yards/play is evidence of a hard working and solid defense. The bad news, the Falcons have an issue at QB. Unless the light bulb goes on pretty quickly, Ridder is going to wash out as a starter. Heinicke is sitting there waiting to pick up the pieces, but he is probably an 8 win ceiling type of QB. The defense is fairly solid but isn’t creating turnovers and short fields for the hampered offense. Most disconcerning is how head coach Arthur Smith often looks befuddled by what his offense is doing on the field. If he doesn’t seem to know what is going on out there how can the rest of us.
Los Angeles Chargers
Weeks 1-12
Los Angeles Chargers Grade C
- Net Expected Points: -18.43 (19th)
- Net Yards/Play: -0.4 (22nd)
- Power Rating: 99.04 (19th)
Weeks 7-12
Los Angeles Chargers Grade D
- Net Expected Points: -27.25 (26th)
- Net Yards/Play: -0.7 (24th)
- Power Rating: 97.40 (23rd)
Offense (Grade D) – How you have a QB as talented as Herbert and produce the stats you are producing is a bit of a wonder. They still can’t run the ball, but now they can’t pass or protect the ball either. EP says average but I say this is poor for the talent on this side of the ball.
- Point/Game For 22.7 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 5.0 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 10 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.7 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.0 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 35.8%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 15.7% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points 14.06 (avg 9.3)
Defense (Grade F ) – This side of the ball is even worse for the Chargers. Especially since this was the side they thought the HC would fix.
- Points/Game Against 20.9 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 5.7 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 8 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.5 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.3 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 34.4%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 7.3% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points -41.81 (avg -9.3)
Staley has to be on borrowed time. There is no way to look at the statistics of the offense or the defense and say anything has gotten better in the time he has been there. All he seemed to add to the recipe is the secret for heartbreaking and mind boggling losses. The Chargers need to hire some cock sure coach who can go in there and instill confidence into these players.
Weeks 1 – 6
Los Angeles Chargers Grade C+
- Net Expected Points: 9.32
- Net Yards/Play: -0.1
- Power Rating: 100.67 (14th)
Offense (Grade B) – I am a bit worried about the Chargers. 22 points per game is average. 4.2 yards/rush is average. However only 2 turnovers is not average, it is best in the league. It is the fact that the Chargers have been so middling, with almost no turnovers, is the worry.
- Point For 110(avg 125)[5 games]
- Yards/Play 5.8 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 2 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.9 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.2 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 43.2%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 4.5% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 45.70 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade D) – I am not quite sure who is calling the defense for the Chargers, but I would have to guess every defensive play call is a run stuffer. The Chargers are slightly, very slightly, above average stopping the run. But why would you run when they give up 6.9 yards/pass attempt?
- Point Against 104 (avg 125) [5 games]
- Yards/Play 5.7 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 7 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.9 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.1 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 43.2%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 15.9% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -36.38 (avg -7.1)
Everything about the Chargers is an enigma wrapped in a mystery stuffed into a Crackerjack Box that falls apart at the most inopportune time. I wish I didnt have to say this, but the Chargers have an awful habit of losing and giving up leads. They perform their worst on the biggest stage. The defense seems intent on giving up yards faster than any offense can offset it as the negative 0.1 yards/play shows. The offense has done above average work while turning the ball over only twice so far, but the end result is a meager 20 points a game. Can they sneak into the playoffs? Yes. Can they cough up the opportunity and end up sitting at home in January, most assuredly yes. It would be nice to see them shake whatever voodoo is causing this and give their fans, all 6 of them in L.A., something to cheer about.
Seattle Seahawks
Weeks 1-12
Seattle Seahawks Grade C
- Net Expected Points: -19.52 (20th)
- Net Yards/Play: 0.1 (14th)
- Power Rating: 99.07 (18th)
Weeks 7-12
Seattle Seahawks Grade D
- Net Expected Points: -33.27 (26th)
- Net Yards/Play: -0.3 (21st)
- Power Rating: 97.14 (25th)
Offense (Grade D) – Geno Smith is regressing faster than my hairline. The metrics line is all red and white which means average to poor in everything.
- Point/Game For 17.2 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 5.2 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 10 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.9 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.0 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 32.1%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 12.6% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points -8.55 (avg 9.3)
Defense (Grade D ) – But to keep symmetry, the Seahawks defense has also been poor the past 6 weeks. Giving up 5.2 yards / rush is never going to be good. It makes beating you too easy.
- Points/Game Against 23.7 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 5.5 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 8 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.7 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 5.2 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 37.8%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 11.5% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points -24.72 (avg -9.3)
The Seahawks may have overacheived last year and we are seeing more of their true colors this season as it wears on. They aren’t really bad at anything, but they aren’t really good at anything either. And if you had to choose either good or bad with nothing in between, you would be forced to say bad. They can slip in as like a 7th seed, but there is no golden brick road to the Superbowl for this team.
Weeks 1 – 6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Grade C
- Net Expected Points: -4.9
- Net Yards/Play: -0.3
- Power Rating: 99.65 (17th)
Offense (Grade C) – Well Baker hasn’t been bad. 6.3 yards/pass attempt means he is getting it downfield and completing balls to someone. 4 turnovers means he is protecting the ball much better than he ever did. But the 4.8 yards/play is hampered by the abyssmal 3.0 yards/rush.
- Point For 90 (avg 125) [5 games]
- Yards/Play 4.8 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 4 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.3 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.0 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 37.7%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 7.7% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -4.15 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade C+) – Average against the pass, good against the run. They are causing turnovers and not giving up many points. Most of these primary metrics would probably point to a better grade.
- Point Against 88 (avg 125) [5games]
- Yards/Play 5.1 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 10 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.9 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.7 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 34.6%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 19.2% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -0.75 (avg -7.1)
The Bucs are the first team considered “out” of the playoff mix. The sit 17th in power rating, -4.9 net expected points, -0.3 net yards/play. The offense is average with only 4 turnovers. The defense is a tick above average and are creating turnovers, 10 so far. It just seems that the Bucs offense doesn’t score enough, and the defense gives up just a little too much. And 3.0 yards per rush attempt is pitiful. Could they sneak into the playoffs, I guess. But they may be better off missing the playoffs and restocking with a better draft position.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Weeks 1-12
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Grade C
- Net Expected Points: -21.61 (21st)
- Net Yards/Play: -0.7 (27th)
- Power Rating: 98.01 (21st)
Weeks 7-12
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Grade C-
- Net Expected Points: -16.71 (21st)
- Net Yards/Play: -1.1 (30th)
- Power Rating: 96.37 (26th)
Offense (Grade C+) – Baker has done, what Baker normally does. He plays hard, grinds out points, is difficult to watch, but in the end, is just your run of the mill QB.
- Point/Game For 20.3 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 5.2(avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 8 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.7 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.6 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 36.3%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 12.9% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points 19.2(avg 9.3)
Defense (Grade F) – The Bucs defense is getting shredded by the pass, see the 7.7 pass yards per attempt. Scoring% of 42%, -36 EP, 6.3 yards/play. This is some bad defense.
- Points/Game Against 23.7 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 6.3 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 7 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 7.7 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.1 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 42.4%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 9.8% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points -35.91 (avg -9.3)
The Bucs have an average offense, with a bad defense. The play in a bad division so they will stay in a bunch of games. They simply do not have the skill players right now to beat teams outside their division. Mayfield is a good bridge to a new QB, but he is not a long term solution.
Weeks 1 – 6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Grade C
- Net Expected Points: -4.9
- Net Yards/Play: -0.3
- Power Rating: 99.65 (17th)
Offense (Grade C) – Well Baker hasn’t been bad. 6.3 yards/pass attempt means he is getting it downfield and completing balls to someone. 4 turnovers means he is protecting the ball much better than he ever did. But the 4.8 yards/play is hampered by the abyssmal 3.0 yards/rush.
- Point For 90 (avg 125) [5 games]
- Yards/Play 4.8 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 4 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.3 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.0 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 37.7%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 7.7% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -4.15 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade C+) – Average against the pass, good against the run. They are causing turnovers and not giving up many points. Most of these primary metrics would probably point to a better grade.
- Point Against 88 (avg 125) [5games]
- Yards/Play 5.1 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 10 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.9 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.7 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 34.6%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 19.2% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -0.75 (avg -7.1)
The Bucs are the first team considered “out” of the playoff mix. The sit 17th in power rating, -4.9 net expected points, -0.3 net yards/play. The offense is average with only 4 turnovers. The defense is a tick above average and are creating turnovers, 10 so far. It just seems that the Bucs offense doesn’t score enough, and the defense gives up just a little too much. And 3.0 yards per rush attempt is pitiful. Could they sneak into the playoffs, I guess. But they may be better off missing the playoffs and restocking with a better draft position.
GRADE D
Tennessee Titans
Weeks 1-12
Tennessee Titans Grade D
- Net Expected Points: -50.92 (22nd)
- Net Yards/Play: -0.2 (19th)
- Power Rating: 97.97 (22nd)
Weeks 7-12
Tennessee Titans Grade D
- Net Expected Points: -30.64 (25th)
- Net Yards/Play: -0.1 (17th)
- Power Rating: 97.41 (22nd)
Offense (Grade D+ ) – Nothing the offense does, save not turn it over, is worth watching.
- Point/Game For 16.2 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 5.1 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 5 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.7 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.0 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 28.4%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 7.6% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points -2.52 (avg 9.3)
Defense (Grade D ) – Nothing the defense does is all that terrible, except they take way too many penalties, the worst kind of penalties, and they don’t force any turnovers. Besides that, they’re very average.
- Points/Game Against 21.2 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 5.2 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 3 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.2 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.0 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 40%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 5.7% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points -28.12 (avg -9.3)
The Titans seem to be a team with aging stars who didn’t restock the cupboard very well through the draft or FA. Tannehill is cooked. Henry has to be on his last legs. The OL is pretty suspect at times. The defense is basically chickens running around with their heads cut off. I am not sure Vrabel survives this, or quite frankly, wants to. He might be better off jumping ship and heading somewhere with an easier rebuild.
Weeks 1 – 6
Tennessee Titans Grade C-
- Net Expected Points: -20.28
- Net Yards/Play: -0.3
- Power Rating: 98.54 (20th)
Offense (Grade C+) – Not really sure why I am giving the Titans a C+, as they seem more C or even C- when you watch them. They dont score many points, their yards/play is below average as is their passing game.
- Point For 104 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 5.1 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 7 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.5 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.6 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 40%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 10% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 12.09 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade D) – The Titans simply cannot defend the pass. They are good against the run, but do not create turnovers and allow a 45% scoring % to opponents.
- Point Against 117 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 5.4 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 5 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.8 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.6 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 45%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 6.7% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -32.37 (avg -7.1)
The Titans could be a Grade D masquerading as a Grade C- team. They look old and slow, and all of the metrics are below average save a few. I am not sure how they win games with Tannehill at QB this season. He looks as if Father Time caught up to him, passed him, then slowed down just to mock him. Henry is still a stud, but the mileage is getting high on his tires. Now the defense has decided to take a turn for the worse giving up nearly 7 yards/pass attempt. This looks like a 6-7 win team if things go right.
Chicago Bears
Weeks 1-12
Chicago Bears Grade D
- Net Expected Points: -66.98 (24th)
- Net Yards/Play: -0.3 (21st)
- Power Rating: 97.80 (23rd)
Weeks 7-12
Chicago Bears Grade C
- Net Expected Points: -4.64 (18th)
- Net Yards/Play: 0.0 (14th)
- Power Rating: 100.04 (14th)
Offense (Grade C-) – As bad as the Bears were the first 6 weeks, they weren’t that much better in weeks 7-12. Eberflus is more of an issue than Fields, but they should just blow the whole thing up and start over with Moore & Kmet.
- Point/Game For 19.0 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 4.8 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 10 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.6 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.0 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 36.1%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 15.2% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points -3.37 (avg 9.3)
Defense (Grade B-) – Lost in the Muppet Show that is the Bears offense, is the fact that the Bears defense has played quite well of late. Creating turnovers and pretty good metrics across the board.
- Points/Game Against 20.0 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 4.8 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 12 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.4 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.3 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 38.6%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 13.2% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points -1.27 (avg -9.3)
I think I summarized the Bears in the Offense comments. There are pieces there in Chicago, but I don’t think the HC or his staff are one of the pieces. That leaves Fields as an unknown, because perhaps with a different staff, he could be more efficient. If the draft goes well for Chicago, they could be right back in it next year. A savvy coaching hire could be the difference.
Weeks 1 – 6
Chicago Bears Grade D
- Net Expected Points: -61.64
- Net Yards/Play: -0.6
- Power Rating: 95.55 (28th)
Offense (Grade C-) – If the Bears would stop turning the ball over and taking sacks, they might be a slightly above average offense. Most of their offensive metrics are not that bad, some even good, but their penchant for making the worst play at the worst time, time and time again, is a metric that is hard to define.
- Point For 128 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 5.2 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 11 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.6 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.8 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 37.5%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 17.2% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -9.56 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade F) – I know the Bears offense hasn’t been a joy to watch, but if you were going to the toilet or to get a beer you would be better off doing it when the Bears defense is on the field because they are even harder to watch. 7.4 yards per pass attempt and 5.8 yards/play.
- Point Against 176 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 5.8 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 5 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 7.4 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.5 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 42.2%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 7.8% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -52.08 (avg -7.1)
The metrics say the Bears offense is much better than the Bears defense. But the human eye says the both kind of stink. If we are judging stench, then the defense probably is the more accomplished and consistent failure. But let’s not lose sight of an offense that at times literally looks as though it was drawn up by a 10 year old kid using bottlecaps and rocks on a South Side street. I am pretty sure that neither Fields nor Eberflus should buy a home in Chicago as I don’t think either has a future there in 2024. Personally I put this more on Eberflus and his staff, but Fields is not getting better, physically or mentally, by staying in Chicago.
Cincinatti Bengals
Weeks 1-12
Cincinatti Bengals Grade D
- Net Expected Points: -57.07 (23rd)
- Net Yards/Play: -1.3 (31st)
- Power Rating: 96.15 (28th)
Weeks 7-12
Cincinatti Bengals Grade C-
- Net Expected Points: -15.8 (20th)
- Net Yards/Play: -1.2 (31st)
- Power Rating: 95.29 (27th)
Offense (Grade B+) – With Burrow down, they isn’t much to say about the Bengals offense other than see you next season. These stats and grades will mean nothing as to what you will see the next 6 weeks from this unit.
- Point/Game For 22.4 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 5.6 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 4 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.3 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.1 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 36.5%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 7.5% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points 36.16 (avg 9.3)
Defense (Grade F ) – Unfortunately during the next six weeks of watching bad offense, Bengals fans will also get to watch horrendous defense. Other than creating some turnovers, this defense doesn’t do anything well.
- Points/Game Against 22.8 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 6.8 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 9 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 8.2 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 5.0 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 40.2 %(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 16.5% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points -51.96 (avg -9.3)
With Burrow on IR for the rest of the season, the best thing the Bengals could do is tank. Unfortunately they already have too many wins for tanking to do a great job. Honestly the best thing the Bengals can hope for is to lose all 6 games and not get anyone injured doing it. Wave the white flag on 2023, and bring everyone back healthy for a run in 2024.
Weeks 1 – 6
Cincinatti Bengals Grade C—
- Net Expected Points: -41.27
- Net Yards/Play: -1.4
- Power Rating: 97.02 (25th)
Offense (Grade D) – The question for the Bengals has to be, how can you be this bad on offense when you don’t turn the ball over? Yards/play of 4.2? That is a joke. Yards/pass attempt of 4.5? Who is throwing the ball, the local winner of the 13yr old division of Punt Pass & Kick? Scoring% of 26.9%? Expected points of -31? Quite frankly this isn’t even an NFL offense at this point.
- Point For 100 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 4.2 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 5 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 4.5 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.5 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 26.9%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 7.5% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -31.06 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade C) – The Bengals are susceptible to the run, as the 5.0 yards/attempt metric shows. That means they probably have to bring an extra man into the box which leaves them susceptible to the pass as well. But why pass when you can simply run it at 6 yards a clip?
- Point Against 127 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 5.6 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 10 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.0 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 5.0 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 36.8%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 14.7% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -10.21 (avg -7.1)
Ok the Bengals deserve a D, but their past and the small glimmers of hope we’ve seen over the past few games allowed me to fudge their grade all the way up to C—. They don’t deserve to be a Grade C team, even the worst one by way of author bias, but if they can find 90% of what they were last year, they should be able to get to 9 wins, give or take, and maybe sneak into the playoffs. The issue is they have the Browns and Ravens to deal with in the division and they lost games that could be crucial in tie breakers later on. It’s hard to sit here and talk up a team with an absolutely pathetic -1.4 net yards/play, but that metric has been getting better of late. This is all a matter of can the Bengals pull out of the nosedive in time to save 2023. History would say yes, but the stats right now are saying no.
Denver Broncos
Weeks 1-12
Denver Broncos Grade D
- Net Expected Points: -71.92 (25th)
- Net Yards/Play: -0.9 (29th)
- Power Rating: 96.57 (26th)
Weeks 7-12
Denver Broncos Grade B-
- Net Expected Points: 21.35 (10th)
- Net Yards/Play: -0.6 (23rd)
- Power Rating: 99.87 (16th)
Offense (Grade ) – The Broncos offense has been protecting the ball to the tune of 3 turnovers in 6 weeks. This led to a high scoring%, but all the other metrics are below average. This is another, no margin for error, kind of offense.
- Point/Game For 23.9 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 4.9 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 3 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.7 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.9 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 46%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 5.8% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points 4.43 (avg 9.3)
Defense (Grade ) – The pass defense has gotten way better, but the yards/play and rush defense still have issues. What saved this defense and the Borncos are the 16 turnovers forced in six weeks. Yet scoring% still in the mid 30’s…that is not a good sign. When the turnovers dry up there could be major issues.
- Points/Game Against 17.6 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 5.5 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 16 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.5 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 5.2 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 33.1%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 26.6% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points 16.92 (avg -9.3)
The Broncos were absolutely horrible on defense the first 6 weeks, and reletively average offensively. Give them credit for not mailing it in, but I still have serious doubts. They are still only average offensively, even with minimal turnovers, and their defense has patched all their holes with the plaster known as turnovers. When the turnovers stop coming, that plaster isn’t going to hold back anyone.
Weeks 1 – 6
Denver Broncos Grade F
- Net Expected Points: -93.7
- Net Yards/Play: -1.2
- Power Rating: 93.26 (31st)
Offense (Grade C) – Yes the Broncos stink. But that is mostly because of the unholy mess that the defense is in, a topic we will cover in the Defensive Grades article in a few days. The offense, well it hasn’t been terrible.
- Point For 129 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 5.5 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 11 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.9 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.9 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 34.4%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 16.4% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 2.59 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade F—) – 200 points against. An ungodly 7.7 yards per pass attempt. Almost 7 yards/play. Opponents scoring at a 53.1% rate. Giving up 5.6 yards per rush. Honestly, I don’t know how they caused the 6 turnovers they have, because they appear to be a complete clown car full of defensive ineptitude.
- Point Against 200 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 6.7 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 6 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 7.7 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 5.6 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 53.1%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 7.8% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -95.68 (avg -7.1)
I expect a lot of Xmas cards from Broncos fans for putting you 31st given your defense has produced a level of defensive ineptitute the world has never seen. Let’s absolve the offense. They are decidely average, but they must look like the 2000 Rams in practice against whatever 11 warm bodies the defense throws out there. There is bad. There is terrible. There is unmitigatedly awful. Then there is what is happening when Denver plays defense. They shouldn’t let children under 17 in to see it due to graphic ineptitude, colorful fan language, and just the general horror show that it is. If there was 20 dirty hands on the offense last year, there has to be 1000 absolutely filthy, grimey, gnarled hands on this defense.
Washington Commanders
Weeks 1-12
Washington Commanders Grade D
- Net Expected Points: -88.43 (26th)
- Net Yards/Play: -0.7 (28th)
- Power Rating: 95.90 (29th)
Weeks 7-12
Washington Commanders Grade F
- Net Expected Points: -60.47 (30th)
- Net Yards/Play: -0.6 (25th)
- Power Rating: 93.68 (30th)
Offense (Grade C- ) – Sam Howell is a decent to above average qb. The rest of the skill positions and the OL are pretty barren.
- Point/Game For 18.8 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 5.5 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 12 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.8 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.7 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 29%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 15.3% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points -7.13 (avg 9.3)
Defense (Grade F-) – The unit absolutely stinks, ever worse so since Rivera is a defensive guy. 7.2 yds per pass attempt and -53 EP tells you all you need to know.
- Points/Game Against 29.0 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 6.1 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 5 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 7.2 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.2 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 39.4%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 5.5% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points -53.34 (avg -9.3)
Clearly there is going to be massive change in Washington come the off season. Do you give Bieniemy a shot at HC based on Howell’s performance, or do you just clean house and start completely anew. I think Josh Harris is going with the clean house, get my guys in here direction. That means almost anyone on the roster and staff could be gone save those players who’s contracts prohibit it financially.
Weeks 1 – 6
Washington Commanders Grade C-
- Net Expected Points: -27.96
- Net Yards/Play: -0.8
- Power Rating: 97.98 (24th)
Offense (Grade C) – 4.9 yards/play, 5.2 yards/pass att, 10 turnovers….Come to think of it, the Grade C may be a bit generous as this is not an offense you want to watch or root for.
- Point For 133 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 4.9 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 10 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.2 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.3 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 34.8%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 14.5% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 6.27 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade D) – The only thing the Commanders do slightly above average is create turnovers, and I would wonder if they are created or gifted. They can’t stop the run, they can’t stop the pass. Opponents are scroing on 51.2% of drives.
- Point Against 176 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 5.7 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 8 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.6 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.6 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 51.6%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 12.5% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -34.23 (avg -7.1)
The Commanders offense is worse than the headline stats make them appear to be. But that’s ok because their defense is at least as bad as the headline stats make them appear to be. It is almost comical that opponent’s are scoring on over half their drives against this defense. The offense isn’t really good at passing the ball, but seem to be accomplished at turning the ball over. The change in ownership didn’t change the talent, the coaching, or the wandering, pointless path to 6 wins the Commanders seem to be commited to and quite capable of stumbling towards.
Las Vegas Raiders
Weeks 1-12
Las Vegas Raiders Grade D
- Net Expected Points: -90.13 (27th)
- Net Yards/Play: -0.5 (25th)
- Power Rating: 96.74 (25th)
Weeks 7-12
Las Vegas Raiders Grade D
- Net Expected Points: -39.38 (27th)
- Net Yards/Play: -0.8 (28th)
- Power Rating: 97.15 (24th)
Offense (Grade D-) – The Raiders offense is not pretty or efficient. It basically just is. They trot out 11 guys, they do some stuff, they trot off. Once in a while they score.
- Point/Game For 17.0 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 4.9 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 9 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.4 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.0 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 30.2%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 13.3% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points -36.92 (avg 9.3)
Defense (Grade C ) – The Raiders defense, bless their heart, has been trying. The are an average to above average unit getting little to no help from their offense. They can’t really carry the day, but they could keep a team in a game.
- Points/Game Against 20.8 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 5.7 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 9 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.6 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.5 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 35%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 13.5% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points -2.46 (avg -9.3)
Well the Raiders got way better the past 6 weeks the day they fired McDaniels. I called for that in the week 6 grades saying the Raiders would never go anywhere with him, and lo and behold, they can the guy and start winning some games. Look, the Raiders are not a good team and they are not going to the Superbowl. But they made they best possible move they could in firing that staff, so they are at least on a path back to respectability.
Weeks 1 – 6
Las Vegas Raiders Grade D
- Net Expected Points: -50.75
- Net Yards/Play: -0.2
- Power Rating: 96.33 (26th)
Offense (Grade C-) – The Raiders are the Bucs with the added bonus of turning the ball over 12 times instead of 4. Yards/play 4.9, rush.attempt 3.0, but because they turn the ball over way more, their scoring% barely breaks 30%. You can’t win in the league at 30% scoring% unless every single score is a TD.
- Point For 100 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 4.9 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 12 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.2 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.0 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 30.2%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 20.3% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -5.83 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade D) – The Raiders appears to have just an average defense as many of the primary metrics are decidely average. They are not causing many turnovers and opponents are scoring at a 40% clip against them.
- Point Against 131 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 5.1 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 5 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.8 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.3 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 40.0%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 8.3% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -44.92 (avg -7.1)
Josh McDaniels must have compromising photos of someone. His first stint in Denver was a disaster. He quit his next job before starting it, and now he is in the desert sucking the life out of the Raiders fans. The man simply does not command the respect of the people he is tasked to coach and lead. There is no answer for it, and he isn’t going to grow into it. He is what he is, a good assistant coach that most players don’t seem to like for whatever reason. The Raiders turn the ball over too much on offense, and the defense is just a unit with 11 guys. There is no Mojo and seemingly no real plan. I’d almost rather be the Giants with an F- grade and a plan that didnt work, then no plan at all.
New England Patriots
Weeks 1-12
New England Patriots Grade D
- Net Expected Points: -92.06 (28th)
- Net Yards/Play: -0.2 (18th)
- Power Rating: 96.90 (24th)
Weeks 7-12
New England Patriots Grade D
- Net Expected Points: -24.29 (23rd)
- Net Yards/Play: -0.1 (18th)
- Power Rating: 98.70 (19th)
Offense (Grade D-) – Mac Jones isn’t an NFL QB, and there is no one on the Pats staff who is capable of organizing and running a modern NFL offense. The stats say just that.
- Point/Game For 15.2 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 4.9 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 8 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.3 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.6 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 26.5%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 14.9% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points -11.73 (avg 9.3)
Defense (Grade C-) – The Pats defense isn’t bad, it just isn’t good enough to win games given the horrible offense they are paired with.
- Points/Game Against 19.8 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 5.0 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 8 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.3 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.4 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 31.7%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 13.3% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points -12.56 (avg -9.3)
I think the Pats have been a little unlucky to be 2 – 9 with the statistics they have produced. But even luck only gets them to 4 – 7 at best. They are going nowhere with the QB room they have, and they just seem to lack speed at every single position somehow. Do you give a 70 yr old coach a contract long enough for him to fix it? Even if he does fix it, how much longer can he coach it when it’s fixed? Tough questions for the Pats to answer in the offseason.
Weeks 1 – 6
New England Patriots Grade D
- Net Expected Points: -67.77
- Net Yards/Play: -0.3
- Power Rating: 95.11 (29th)
Offense (Grade F-) – Eleven turnovers, 3.4 rush/att, 4.5 yards/play, and an eye popping -71.41 Expected points. Basically if you sent you QB out on the field with a time bomb as a football and let it go off, that offense would be slightly more productive than what the Patriots are trotting out there now.
- Point For 72 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 4.5 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 11 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.1 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.4 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 18.3% (avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 15.5% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -71.41 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade B-) – Rush/attempt and yards/play are below league average. However scoring%, points against and turnovers, particularly turnovers with just 3, is where the defense is failing.
- Point Against 152 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 4.8 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 3 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.9 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.4 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 37.1%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 4.3% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 3.64 (avg -7.1)
Just like the Broncos offense was absolved from the tongue lashing the defense earned and deserved, the Patriots defense is doing its best to hold up its end of the bargain. You can see by the Patriots -0.3 Net Yard/Play that the defense is doing its job, almost making up for a completely inadequate and stumbling offense. The Panthers just below them are at -1.3 net yards/play and the Bears right above them at -0.6. It is simply too big a hole that the Pats offense digs for the defense to climb out of every week.
New York Jets
Weeks 1-12
New York Jets Grade D
- Net Expected Points: -100.68 (29th)
- Net Yards/Play: -0.4 (23rd)
- Power Rating: 96.40 (27th)
Weeks 7-12
New York Jets Grade F
- Net Expected Points: -72.91 (31st)
- Net Yards/Play: -0.6 (24th)
- Power Rating: 94.81 (28th)
Offense (Grade F— ) – I mean, what can you say about the stats this offense put up for the past 6 weeks. 10 ppg, 3.9 yds/play, 12 turnovers, and an eye popping -89.49 EP.
- Point/Game For 10.0 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 3.9 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 12 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 3.9 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.8 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 18.8%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 17.7% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points -89.49 (avg 9.3)
Defense (Grade B, without the offense Grade A ) – Everyone on the Jets defense should be paid double. How they put up decent stats with the offense doing everything in their power to sabotage the defense deserves a tip of the cap.
- Points/Game Against 23.4 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 4.5 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 6 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.1 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.0 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 34.4%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 9.6% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points 16.58 (avg -9.3)
I am worried about Saleh. He seems to have turned over control of his team to Aaron Rogers. He also seems to fiddle while Rome burns. I think the best thing for Saleh and the Jets would be for Saleh to go on an epic paint peeling rant calling out how poorly they have played this year, how the keep making the same mistakes, and how they keep taking the same stupid penalties. There can be only one captain of the ship, and I am really not sure if that is Saleh or Rogers right now.
Weeks 1 – 6
New York Jets Grade C-
- Net Expected Points: -27.77
- Net Yards/Play: -0.2
- Power Rating: 97.99 (23rd)
Offense (Grade D) – Look, if you are the Jets, a Jets coach, a Jets player, or a Jets fan, you need to face reality. You can run the ball with the best teams; 5.2 yards/attempt. But you are pitiful trying to pass; 4.7 pass yards/attempt. And you try passing too often which is killing your yards/play which sits at 4.9.
- Point For 113 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 4.9 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 8 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 4.7 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 5.2 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 32.4%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 10.3% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -29.69 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade B-) – Yards per pass attempt are 5.7, just below the league average of 5.9. Yards/play at 5.1, just below league average of 5.2. Scoring% right on average, Rush/attempt a little above average. Points Against 131, above average. Where the Jets have been feasting is turnovers with 13.
- Point Against 131 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 5.1 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 13 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.7 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.4 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 36.2%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 17.4% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 1.92 (avg -7.1)
The Jets seem to drink for two water coolers. The first is the fountain of hope where they truly believe they can get to the playoffs riding Zach Wilson’s arm and decision making. The second is some pickle juice that gets their defense playing like a swarm of bees capable of carrying the team by itself, note only a -0.2 net yards/play with a nearly laughable offense. Unfortunately I am not sure the two coolers are marked as it seems the Jets can be world beaters one week and laughing stocks the next. This is almost a matter of, Is the Jets defense stocked deep enough to weather injuries and still be the dominant unit on the team? If yes, they can get in the Playoffs. If no, then it back to the drawing board for 2024.
GRADE F
Carolina Panthers
Weeks 1-12
Carolina Panthers Grade F
- Net Expected Points: -133.2 (30th)
- Net Yards/Play: -0.9 (30th)
- Power Rating: 94.26 (31st)
Weeks 7-12
Carolina Panthers Grade F
- Net Expected Points: -57.37 (29th)
- Net Yards/Play: -0.5 (22nd)
- Power Rating: 94.00 (29th)
Offense (Grade F- ) – Looking at these numbers it is hard to make a case that Reich deserved to stay. Just ugly, on top of ugly, with a pinch of ugly tossed in.
- Point/Game For 12.2 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 3.8 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 6 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 3.9 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.5 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 26%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 11.9% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points -49.82 (avg 9.3)
Defense (Grade C ) – The Panthers defense, somehow, played fairly well the past 6 weeks given the fact that the offense apparently didn’t even play during the games.
- Points/Game Against 22.1 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 4.3 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 2 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.1 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.5 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 36.1%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 3% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points -7.55 (avg -9.3)
This is another team facing significant change in the off season. Young is going nowhere, but everyone else’s head should considered to be on the chopping block. There are no skilled players outside Young & Burns worth talking about. It must be really hard to watch 3 hours of this every Sunday as a Panthers fan.
Weeks 1 – 6
Carolina Panthers Grade D-
- Net Expected Points: -75.83
- Net Yards/Play: -1.3
- Power Rating: 94.52 (30th)
Offense (Grade D) – Ok, well we didn’t expect much of the Panthers and we are getting exactly what we expected. Young needs some time to get used to the size and speed of the NFl game and that’s ok.
- Point For 149 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 4.9 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 8 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.9 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.8 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 35.6%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 11% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -2.15 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade D) – The can’t stop the run or the pass. The don’t create turnovers. They give up a ton of points. This is a well earned Grade D if ever there was one.
- Point Against 186 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 5.7 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 5 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.5 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.9 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 43.5%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 7.2% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -41.73 (avg -7.1)
This is probably just about where everyone envisioned the Panthers would be after 6 weeks so I can’t get on them about the D- as much as I can get on the Giants or Broncos. I don’t think the Panthers thought Young would be this raw out of the gate, but he has shown signs of improvement and he doesn’t have a whole lot to work with on a talent shy Panthers offense. I am not sure what the defense’s excuse is for being equally woeful. They aren’t relying on a rookie to make every key defensive decision or call. Again a lack of talent is evident, but there also seems to be some coaching deficits or schemes that need to be addressed to get the Panthers heading back in the right direction.
New York Giants
Weeks 1-12
New York Giants Grade F
- Net Expected Points: -149.98 (31st)
- Net Yards/Play: -1.6 (32nd)
- Power Rating: 92.99 (32nd)
Weeks 7-12
New York Giants Grade D
- Net Expected Points: -45.52 (28th)
- Net Yards/Play: -1.2 (32nd)
- Power Rating: 93.52 (31st)
Offense (Grade F- ) – DeVito has been ok and a nice story, but this offense is putrid. The OL is terrible, and the WRs are equally bad.
- Point/Game For 14.7 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 4.1 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 6 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 4.3 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.0 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 16.8 %(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 5.5% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points -64.55 (avg 9.3)
Defense (Grade B-) – The Giants defense has been playing quite well. It is just a shame it is lost in the train wreck that is the offense each week.
- Points/Game Against 20.8 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 5.3 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 14 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.7 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.5 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 25%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 17.2% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points 19.13 (avg -9.3)
Daboll has to come under some scrutiny this off season. Whether he throws some staff under the bus, or blames it on injuries, he is going to have to fight to keep his job. The rumor he is squabbling with his DC is even more worrying, as that is the only side of the ball working in any capacity right now. This could be the beginning of a long rebuild for the Giants.
Weeks 1 – 6
New York Giants Grade F-
- Net Expected Points: -104.46
- Net Yards/Play: -2.0
- Power Rating: 92.46 (32nd)
Offense (Grade F) – The Giants are just a total train wreck of an offense. There is really not a single thing they do well offensively. There is almost nothing they even do at an average level, save turnovers at 8.
- Point For 71 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 4.1 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 8 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 4.3 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 3.8 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 23.8%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 12.7% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -55.12 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade F) – The Giants are a consistent defense. They don’t stop the run and follow that up by not stopping the pass. Opponents scoring on 46% of the drives is abyssmal.
- Point Against 167 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 6.1 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 5 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 7.1 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 5.1 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 46.1%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 8.2% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -49.34 (avg -7.1)
WTF happened to the G men? A playoff team a year ago, or should I say a lifetime ago when you look at this pile of slop they have put together in the first 6 weeks. The offense stinks. The defense stinks. The coaching stinks. I am guessing even the hot dogs are terrible and the beer is watered down Bud Light they got on clearance. There is not one single metric in the any of the charts where they are even average, save for they have only turned the ball over 8 times. That’s it. That is the entire list of Giant team achievements in the first 6 weeks. If they adopted a puppy for the locker room before the season, make it two achievements; the puppy first and the turnovers a distant second.
Arizona Cardinals
Weeks 1-12
Arizona Cardinals Grade F
- Net Expected Points: -153.21 (32nd)
- Net Yards/Play: -0.6 (26th)
- Power Rating: 94.53 (30th)
Weeks 7-12
Arizona Cardinals Grade F
- Net Expected Points: -95.55 (32nd)
- Net Yards/Play: -0.9 (29th)
- Power Rating: 93.23 (32nd)
Offense (Grade F) – The Cardinals are a mess on offense. Tune was a disaster, and Murray hasn’t shown much on his return. 4.3 yards per pass attempt is atrocious.
- Point/Game For 14.8 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 4.4 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 8 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 4.3 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.3 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 23.9%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 10.1% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points -51.79 (avg 9.3)
Defense (Grade F ) – At the Cardinals are balanced; their defense stinks as bad as their offense. It’s the better unit of the two but that is like picking out the most handsome pig in the pen.
- Points/Game Against 26.5 (avg 21.4)
- Yards/Play 5.3 (avg 5.3)
- Turnovers 7 (avg 7.9)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.3 (avg 6.1)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.5 (avg 4.3)
- Scoring % 40.1%(avg 35.1%)
- Turnover % 9% (avg 12.0%)
- Expected Points -43.76 (avg -9.3)
I don’t think anyone really expected the Cardinals to be good in 2023, but I don’t think many thought they would be this bad. I was skeptical about the Gannon hire simply due to the way he spoke during press conferences and interviews you read. He doesn’t seem to be a great communicator. I think this is a skill an NFL Head Coach must have and have it in excess if they want to be successful. Nothing has gotten better under Gannon, and that has to be a worry for Cardinals fans
Weeks 1 – 6
Arizona Cardinals Grade D
- Net Expected Points: -57.66
- Net Yards/Play: -0.3
- Power Rating: 95.84 (27th)
Offense (Grade C) – Well we all owe Mr Dobbs an apology. He has looked like an average starting QB in the league and that is meant as a huge compliment. 5.7 yards/play, 5.3 rush yards/attempt are both well above average.
- Point For 117 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 5.7 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 7 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 5.5 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 5.3 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 37.1%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 11.3% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points 1.45 (avg 7.1)
Defense (Grade F) – Opponents scoring on 47.5% of drives is ugly. 6.7 yards/pass attempt is also ugly. In fact, the Cardinals defense seems to do just about everything poorly. They just kind of stink from head to toe.
- Point Against 152 (avg 125)
- Yards/Play 5.7 (avg 5.2)
- Turnovers 7 (avg 7.7)
- Yards/Pass Attempt 6.7 (avg 5.9)
- Rush Yards/Att 4.5 (avg 4.2)
- Scoring % 47.5%(avg 36.3%)
- Turnover % 9.8% (avg 11.7%)
- Expected Points -59.11 (avg -7.1)
Let’s start with the good. Dobbs has been way better than anyone could have hoped. The offense looks adequate if not average at times. Dobbs is also their best running option as the ground game is pretty putrid outside QB scrambles and designed runs. The passing game needs work, but the biggest failings are on defense. The can’t stop the run or the pass, they don’t create turnovers, and opponents score on them 47.5% of the time. It is a miracle their net yards/play is only -0.3. Dobbs probably deserve credit for keeping it as close to net zero as it is.
