NFL 2023 Playoffs Futures & Wildcard Weekend – Where, What & Who To Bet

Here is a guide to betting on the NFL 2023 Playoffs.  We will walk you through:

• The best places to bet
• The best bets to place
• The best teams to bet on

NFL 2023 Playoffs Free Picks – Wild Card Weekend Free Picks

Where To Bet – Online Sportsbook Rankings

The rankings are based on the lowest hold back(% over 100%).  Each sportsbook was rated for betting on AFC, NFC & Superbowl futures.  The value was attained by adding up the % chance each team has of winning based on the odds listed.  The lower the total %, the lower the total vig on the futures.

The posted odds were as of January 10, 2024.

AFC & NFC Championship Betting

• The charts above show the odds you can get at each online sportsbook on each playoff team.
• The gold boxes highlight the best odds for each team and which online sportsbook offers it.
• The Avg Chance are based on the Sportsbook average odds and win%.
• The bottom color coded row on 2 of the charts show the hold back % at each online sportbook.

NFL Superbowl Betting

• The charts above show the odds you can get at each online sportsbook on each playoff team.
• The gold boxes highlight the best odds for each team and which online sportsbook offers it.
• The Avg Chance are based on the Sportsbook average odds and win%.
• The bottom color coded row on 2 of the charts show the hold back % at each online sportbook.
• The Best Odds are if you added up the best odds for each team.

Removing the House Percentage To Get True Odds

Now we are going to get rid of the house edge by bringing the sum of the odds down to 100%.  This should, in theory, tell us what the odds calculated by the sportsbook were before they added in the profit(vig).  Note how all the columns now sum up to 100%.

AFC NFC Championship True Odds

NFL Superbowl True Odds

Overlays Based On True Odds

AFC Chamiponship Overlays

• Texans +2500 @ Fanduel (+2178)
• Steelers +6000 @ Fanduel or Caesars (+5647)
• You can catch most teams just under their true odds

NFC Championship Overlays

• Bucs +4000 @ Caesars (+3459)
• Packers @ Caesars +4500 (+4425)

Superbowl Overlays

• Texans +7000 @ Fanduel (+5275)
• Bucs +9500 @ Fanduel (+8097)
• Packers +10000 @ Fanduel or Caesars (+9801)

nfllines Power Ratings Playoff Picks & Best Bets

• This chart uses the nfllines.com power ratings to generate win probabilities for each team to win their conference championship and the Superbowl.  Before we were using Avg Sportsbook odds.
• Win% is nfllines.com estimated chance to win the conference or superbowl
• Odds are the equivalent odds based on win%
• Vegas Win% is the average win% based on the online sportsbook consensus
• Vegas Odds are the equivalent odds based on Vegas Win%
• Highest Odds are the highest odds available on the team for the conference championship or Superbowl.
• The individual game lines are based on nfllines power ratings.
• BEST BETS – Best bets are in bold.  These bets have odds higher than the calculated odds based on nfllines predicted win%

NFL Conference Championship Best Bets

San Francisco 49ers in NFC

• Predicted odds -180
• Available odds -120

Baltimore Ravens in AFC

• Predicted odds -170
• Available odds +130

Dark Horses

Tampa Bay in NFC

• Predicted odds +2400
• Available odds +4000

Green Bay in NFC

• Predicted odds +3150
• Available odds +4500

Note – In the AFC, both Miami & Cleveland have odds available that are very close to the predicted odds.

NFL Superbowl Best Bets

San Francisco 49ers

• Predicted odds +205
• Available odds +225

Baltimore Ravens in AFC

• Predicted odds +215
• Available odds +340

Dark Horses

Tampa Bay in NFC

• Predicted odds +4900
• Available odds +9500

Green Bay in NFC

• Predicted odds +9500
• Available odds +10000

Note – Both Miami & Dallas have odds close to predicted odds.

nfllines Power Ratings & Algorithm

The Algorithm finished the NFL 2023 season 127 – 103 – 10 against the spread. It didn’t have a losing week between week 10 & week 18: 9 straight .500 or better weeks to end the season.