BAL at BUF
What the site's algorithm makes of it
Power ratings as stored for week 8, 2026 — the set this week's picks were made from.
It makes BUF the better side by 4.1.
Members see which side it is taking this week, and by how much it disagrees with the market.
Opened BUF -3
Now BUF -3.5 — BUF favoured by 0.5 more since first recorded
Line history: BUF -3 (Oct 25) · BUF -3.5 ×3 (Oct 26–Oct 27)
Scoring offense
Percentile against the league. Outward is better; the inner ring is the median.
Scoring defense
Percentile against the league. Outward is better; the inner ring is the median.
Passing
Bubble size is touchdowns.
Rushing
Bubble size is touchdowns.
Drives
Longer is better. 50 is the league median.
Conversions
Longer is better. 50 is the league median.
Betting record — 2026
| Split | BAL | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | SU 4-3 · ATS 2-4-1 · O/U 4-3 | SU 5-1 · ATS 4-2 · O/U 5-1 |
| At home | SU 1-2 · ATS 0-3 · O/U 1-2 | SU 2-1 · ATS 2-1 · O/U 2-1 |
| On the road | SU 3-1 · ATS 2-1-1 · O/U 3-1 | SU 3-0 · ATS 2-1 · O/U 3-0 |
| As favourite | SU 3-2 · ATS 1-3-1 · O/U 2-3 | SU 4-1 · ATS 3-2 · O/U 4-1 |
| As underdog | SU 1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 2-0 | SU 1-0 · ATS 1-0 · O/U 1-0 |
| In division | SU 0-2 · ATS 0-2 · O/U 1-1 | SU 0-1 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 1-0 |
| Out of division | SU 4-1 · ATS 2-2-1 · O/U 3-2 | SU 5-0 · ATS 4-1 · O/U 4-1 |
| Pick'em (±3) | SU 2-2 · ATS 1-2-1 · O/U 3-1 | SU 1-0 · ATS 1-0 · O/U 1-0 |
| Favoured by 3-7 | SU 2-0 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 2-0 | |
| Favoured by 7+ | SU 1-1 · ATS 0-2 · O/U 0-2 | SU 1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 1-1 |
| Dog by 3-7 | SU 1-0 · ATS 1-0 · O/U 1-0 | SU 1-0 · ATS 1-0 · O/U 1-0 |
SU = straight up · ATS = against the spread · O/U = over-under. Records count GAMES PLAYED.
Season to date — 2026
| Metric | BAL | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 1st downs | ||
| Total | 137 | 142 |
| Passing | 81 | 66 |
| Rushing | 51 | 65 |
| From penalties | 16 | 20 |
| Efficiency | ||
| Third down | 35 of 82 | 31 of 61 |
| Fourth down | 2 of 7 | 3 of 4 |
| Volume | ||
| Total yards | 2,686 | 2,397 |
| Total plays | 426 | 354 |
| Yards per play | 6.3 | 6.8 |
| Drives | 77 | 64 |
| Passing | ||
| Passing yards | 1,694 | 1,504 |
| Completions | 142-221 | 114-186 |
| Yards per pass | 7.7 | 8.1 |
| Touchdowns | 10 | 9 |
| Interceptions | 2 | 4 |
| Sacks (yards lost) | 18 (121) | 12 (71) |
| Rushing | ||
| Rushing yards | 992 | 893 |
| Attempts | 213 | 176 |
| Yards per rush | 4.7 | 5.1 |
| Touchdowns | 9 | 14 |
| Red zone | ||
| Scores | 15 of 28 | 18 of 33 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties (yards) | 60 (455) | 50 (434) |
| Turnovers | ||
| Total | 5 | 9 |
| Fumbles lost | 3 | 5 |
| Interceptions thrown | 2 | 4 |
Full-season totals from the 2026 season, database N.
When these two have met
- 2025 wk 1 BAL 40, BUF 41 BUF won
- 2024 wk 4 BUF 10, BAL 35 BAL won
- 2022 wk 4 BUF 23, BAL 20 BUF won
- 2019 wk 14 BAL 24, BUF 17 BAL won
- 2018 wk 1 BUF 3, BAL 47 BAL won
Before the game
- Biggest mismatch: BUF's offense (1st) against BAL's defense (24th) in expected points added.
The mismatch
- BUF's offense ranks 1st in expected points added; BAL's defense ranks 24th against it.
- BAL's offense ranks 7th in expected points added passing; BUF's defense ranks 29th against it.
- BAL's offense ranks 10th in expected points added; BUF's defense ranks 31st against it.
- BUF's offense ranks T-1st in rushing touchdowns; BAL's defense ranks T-21st against it.
- BAL's offense ranks 5th in interception rate (thrown); BUF's defense ranks 25th against it.
- BUF's offense ranks 1st in points per drive; BAL's defense ranks 20th against it.
Form and history
- Week 8, 2026: BAL (4 wins, 3 losses), on a 2-game losing streak at BUF (5 wins, 1 loss), on a 2-game winning streak.
- BAL: average drive start (yards to go) 228.7 over the last four weeks, up from 147.6 — 8th to 31st in the league.
- BUF: QB hits 15.0 over the last four weeks, down from 28.0 — 3rd to 31st in the league.
- Head-to-head: BAL leads BUF 3–2 in games since 2018.
Starters and rest
- Projected starters: Tyler Huntley for BAL, Josh Allen for BUF.
- BUF enters on 14 days rest to BAL's 7.