ATL at TB
What the site's algorithm makes of it
Power ratings as stored for week 8, 2026 — the set this week's picks were made from.
It makes TB the better side by 1.9.
Members see which side it is taking this week, and by how much it disagrees with the market.
Opened TB -1.5
Now TB -2.5 — TB favoured by 1 more since first recorded
Line history: TB -1.5 ×2 (Oct 25–Oct 26) · TB -2.5 ×2 (Oct 27–Oct 27)
Scoring offense
Percentile against the league. Outward is better; the inner ring is the median.
Scoring defense
Percentile against the league. Outward is better; the inner ring is the median.
Passing
Bubble size is touchdowns.
Rushing
Bubble size is touchdowns.
Drives
Longer is better. 50 is the league median.
Conversions
Longer is better. 50 is the league median.
Betting record — 2026
| Split | ATL | TB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | SU 3-4 · ATS 3-4 · O/U 4-3 | SU 2-5 · ATS 2-4-1 · O/U 4-3 |
| At home | SU 1-3 · ATS 1-3 · O/U 2-2 | SU 0-4 · ATS 0-3-1 · O/U 2-2 |
| On the road | SU 2-1 · ATS 2-1 · O/U 2-1 | SU 2-1 · ATS 2-1 · O/U 2-1 |
| As favourite | SU 0-1 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 1-0 | SU 0-1 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 1-0 |
| As underdog | SU 3-3 · ATS 3-3 · O/U 3-3 | SU 2-4 · ATS 2-3-1 · O/U 3-3 |
| In division | SU 1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 1-1 | SU 1-0 · ATS 1-0 · O/U 1-0 |
| Out of division | SU 2-3 · ATS 2-3 · O/U 3-2 | SU 1-5 · ATS 1-4-1 · O/U 3-3 |
| Pick'em (±3) | SU 2-2 · ATS 2-2 · O/U 2-2 | SU 1-3 · ATS 1-2-1 · O/U 2-2 |
| Favoured by 3-7 | SU 0-1 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 1-0 | |
| Favoured by 7+ | SU 0-1 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 1-0 | |
| Dog by 3-7 | SU 1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 1-1 | SU 0-1 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 1-0 |
| Dog by 7+ | SU 1-0 · ATS 1-0 · O/U 0-1 |
SU = straight up · ATS = against the spread · O/U = over-under. Records count GAMES PLAYED.
Season to date — 2026
| Metric | ATL | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 1st downs | ||
| Total | 131 | 126 |
| Passing | 65 | 59 |
| Rushing | 56 | 59 |
| From penalties | 12 | 11 |
| Efficiency | ||
| Third down | 32 of 83 | 40 of 99 |
| Fourth down | 1 of 6 | 3 of 10 |
| Volume | ||
| Total yards | 2,458 | 2,205 |
| Total plays | 418 | 432 |
| Yards per play | 5.9 | 5.1 |
| Drives | 79 | 79 |
| Passing | ||
| Passing yards | 1,479 | 1,180 |
| Completions | 128-220 | 128-227 |
| Yards per pass | 6.7 | 5.2 |
| Touchdowns | 10 | 6 |
| Interceptions | 7 | 7 |
| Sacks (yards lost) | 16 (97) | 22 (127) |
| Rushing | ||
| Rushing yards | 979 | 1,025 |
| Attempts | 206 | 210 |
| Yards per rush | 4.8 | 4.9 |
| Touchdowns | 8 | 8 |
| Red zone | ||
| Scores | 14 of 26 | 12 of 27 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties (yards) | 45 (425) | 50 (364) |
| Turnovers | ||
| Total | 10 | 11 |
| Fumbles lost | 4 | 5 |
| Interceptions thrown | 7 | 7 |
Full-season totals from the 2026 season, database N.
When these two have met
- 2025 wk 15 ATL 29, TB 28 ATL won
- 2025 wk 1 TB 23, ATL 20 TB won
- 2024 wk 8 ATL 31, TB 26 ATL won
- 2024 wk 5 TB 30, ATL 36 ATL won
- 2023 wk 14 TB 29, ATL 25 TB won
- 2023 wk 7 ATL 16, TB 13 ATL won
Before the game
- Biggest mismatch: ATL's offense (7th) against TB's defense (32nd) in yards after catch.
The mismatch
- ATL's offense ranks 7th in yards after catch; TB's defense ranks 32nd against it.
- TB's offense ranks T-7th in rushing touchdowns; ATL's defense ranks T-21st against it.
- TB's offense ranks 17th in yards after catch; ATL's defense ranks T-27th against it.
- TB's offense ranks 15th in average drive start (yards to go); ATL's defense ranks 22nd against it.
- ATL's offense ranks T-12th in touchdown rate per pass; TB's defense ranks T-15th against it.
- ATL's offense ranks 4th in yards per carry; TB's defense ranks 5th against it.
Form and history
- Week 8, 2026: ATL (3 wins, 4 losses), on a 1-game winning streak at TB (2 wins, 5 losses), on a 1-game winning streak.
- ATL: rushing touchdowns allowed 8.0 over the last four weeks, up from 0.0 — 3rd to 32nd in the league.
- TB: average drive start (yards to go) 221.7 over the last four weeks, up from 137.8 — 3rd to 29th in the league.
- Head-to-head: the series is level at 8–8 in games since 2018.
Starters and rest
- Projected starters: Michael Penix Jr. for ATL, Baker Mayfield for TB.