MIN at NO
What the site's algorithm makes of it
Power ratings as stored for week 5, 2026 — the set this week's picks were made from.
It makes MIN the better side by 1.6.
Members see which side it is taking this week, and by how much it disagrees with the market.
Opened MIN -1.5
Now MIN -2.5 — MIN favoured by 1 more since first recorded
Line history: MIN -1.5 ×9 (Oct 4–Oct 6) · MIN -2.5 ×21 (Oct 9–Nov 2)
Scoring offense
Percentile against the league. Outward is better; the inner ring is the median.
Scoring defense
Percentile against the league. Outward is better; the inner ring is the median.
Passing
Bubble size is touchdowns.
Rushing
Bubble size is touchdowns.
Drives
Longer is better. 50 is the league median.
Conversions
Longer is better. 50 is the league median.
Betting record — 2026
| Split | MIN | NO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | SU 6-1 · ATS 4-3 · O/U 1-6 | SU 2-5 · ATS 3-4 · O/U 4-3 |
| At home | SU 3-0 · ATS 1-2 · O/U 1-2 | SU 0-4 · ATS 0-4 · O/U 2-2 |
| On the road | SU 3-1 · ATS 3-1 · O/U 0-4 | SU 2-1 · ATS 3-0 · O/U 2-1 |
| As favourite | SU 5-0 · ATS 3-2 · O/U 1-4 | SU 1-2 · ATS 1-2 · O/U 3-0 |
| As underdog | SU 1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 0-2 | SU 1-3 · ATS 2-2 · O/U 1-3 |
| In division | SU 2-1 · ATS 2-1 · O/U 1-2 | SU 0-1 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 1-0 |
| Out of division | SU 4-0 · ATS 2-2 · O/U 0-4 | SU 2-4 · ATS 3-3 · O/U 3-3 |
| Pick'em (±3) | SU 3-1 · ATS 3-1 · O/U 1-3 | SU 1-3 · ATS 1-3 · O/U 2-2 |
| Favoured by 3-7 | SU 1-0 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 0-1 | SU 0-1 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 1-0 |
| Favoured by 7+ | SU 1-0 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 0-1 | |
| Dog by 3-7 | SU 1-0 · ATS 1-0 · O/U 0-1 | |
| Dog by 7+ | SU 1-1 · ATS 2-0 · O/U 1-1 |
SU = straight up · ATS = against the spread · O/U = over-under. Records count GAMES PLAYED.
Season to date — 2026
| Metric | MIN | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 1st downs | ||
| Total | 108 | 141 |
| Passing | 62 | 91 |
| Rushing | 38 | 41 |
| From penalties | 6 | 11 |
| Efficiency | ||
| Third down | 37 of 97 | 43 of 99 |
| Fourth down | 4 of 6 | 12 of 15 |
| Volume | ||
| Total yards | 2,095 | 2,323 |
| Total plays | 402 | 458 |
| Yards per play | 5.2 | 5.1 |
| Drives | 76 | 75 |
| Passing | ||
| Passing yards | 1,298 | 1,721 |
| Completions | 123-216 | 183-289 |
| Yards per pass | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| Touchdowns | 8 | 13 |
| Interceptions | 3 | 6 |
| Sacks (yards lost) | 21 (139) | 15 (113) |
| Rushing | ||
| Rushing yards | 797 | 602 |
| Attempts | 199 | 172 |
| Yards per rush | 4.0 | 3.5 |
| Touchdowns | 3 | 6 |
| Red zone | ||
| Scores | 9 of 19 | 17 of 26 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties (yards) | 39 (314) | 45 (305) |
| Turnovers | ||
| Total | 5 | 12 |
| Fumbles lost | 2 | 7 |
| Interceptions thrown | 3 | 6 |
Full-season totals from the 2026 season, database N.
When these two have met
- 2026 wk 5 MIN 23, NO 13 MIN won
- 2023 wk 10 NO 19, MIN 27 MIN won
- 2022 wk 4 MIN 28, NO 25 MIN won
- 2020 wk 16 MIN 33, NO 52 NO won
- 2018 wk 8 NO 30, MIN 20 NO won
- 2017 wk 1 NO 19, MIN 29 MIN won
Before the game
- Biggest mismatch: MIN's offense (10th) against NO's defense (T-31st) in share of drives ending in a turnover.
The mismatch
- MIN's offense ranks 10th in share of drives ending in a turnover; NO's defense ranks T-31st against it.
- MIN's offense ranks T-14th in share of drives ending in a score; NO's defense ranks T-29th against it.
- MIN's offense ranks T-1st in fumbles lost; NO's defense ranks T-12th against it.
- NO's offense ranks 15th in yards after catch; MIN's defense ranks 26th against it.
- NO's offense ranks 10th in average drive start (yards to go); MIN's defense ranks 15th against it.
- NO's offense ranks 4th in fourth-down conversion rate; MIN's defense ranks 8th against it.
Form and history
- Week 5, 2026: MIN (4 wins, 0 losses), on a 4-game winning streak at NO (1 win, 3 losses), on a 2-game losing streak.
- Head-to-head: the series is level at 2–2 in games since 2018.
Starters and rest
- Projected starters: Kyler Murray for MIN, Tyler Shough for NO.
- MIN enters on 7 days rest to NO's 6.
Final — the recap is on this game's result page.