PIT at CLE
What the site's algorithm makes of it
Power ratings as stored for week 4, 2026 — the set this week's picks were made from.
It makes CLE the better side by 2.2.
Members see which side it is taking this week, and by how much it disagrees with the market.
Opened PIT -2.5
Now PIT -2.5
Line history: PIT -2.5 ×39 (Sep 29–Oct 20)
Scoring offense
Percentile against the league. Outward is better; the inner ring is the median.
Scoring defense
Percentile against the league. Outward is better; the inner ring is the median.
Passing
Bubble size is touchdowns.
Rushing
Bubble size is touchdowns.
Drives
Longer is better. 50 is the league median.
Conversions
Longer is better. 50 is the league median.
Betting record — 2026
| Split | PIT | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | SU 4-2 · ATS 4-2 · O/U 4-2 | SU 4-2 · ATS 4-2 · O/U 3-3 |
| At home | SU 3-0 · ATS 3-0 · O/U 2-1 | SU 3-0 · ATS 3-0 · O/U 1-2 |
| On the road | SU 1-2 · ATS 1-2 · O/U 2-1 | SU 1-2 · ATS 1-2 · O/U 2-1 |
| As favourite | SU 3-1 · ATS 3-1 · O/U 3-1 | |
| As underdog | SU 1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 1-1 | SU 4-2 · ATS 4-2 · O/U 3-3 |
| In division | SU 1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 2-0 | SU 2-0 · ATS 2-0 · O/U 1-1 |
| Out of division | SU 3-1 · ATS 3-1 · O/U 2-2 | SU 2-2 · ATS 2-2 · O/U 2-2 |
| Pick'em (±3) | SU 2-1 · ATS 2-1 · O/U 3-0 | SU 3-1 · ATS 3-1 · O/U 1-3 |
| Favoured by 3-7 | SU 1-0 · ATS 1-0 · O/U 0-1 | |
| Dog by 3-7 | SU 1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 1-1 | |
| Dog by 7+ | SU 1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 2-0 |
SU = straight up · ATS = against the spread · O/U = over-under. Records count GAMES PLAYED.
Season to date — 2026
| Metric | PIT | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 1st downs | ||
| Total | 115 | 94 |
| Passing | 68 | 56 |
| Rushing | 34 | 29 |
| From penalties | 8 | 12 |
| Efficiency | ||
| Third down | 26 of 75 | 24 of 78 |
| Fourth down | 3 of 6 | 4 of 9 |
| Volume | ||
| Total yards | 2,082 | 1,738 |
| Total plays | 375 | 349 |
| Yards per play | 5.6 | 5.0 |
| Drives | 72 | 71 |
| Passing | ||
| Passing yards | 1,487 | 1,174 |
| Completions | 143-255 | 112-200 |
| Yards per pass | 5.8 | 5.9 |
| Touchdowns | 12 | 7 |
| Interceptions | 5 | 2 |
| Sacks (yards lost) | 19 (159) | 24 (133) |
| Rushing | ||
| Rushing yards | 595 | 564 |
| Attempts | 131 | 155 |
| Yards per rush | 4.5 | 3.6 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 3 |
| Red zone | ||
| Scores | 8 of 21 | 6 of 17 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties (yards) | 36 (310) | 55 (372) |
| Turnovers | ||
| Total | 7 | 6 |
| Fumbles lost | 3 | 5 |
| Interceptions thrown | 5 | 2 |
Full-season totals from the 2026 season, database N.
When these two have met
- 2026 wk 4 PIT 24, CLE 27 CLE won
- 2025 wk 17 PIT 6, CLE 13 CLE won
- 2025 wk 6 CLE 9, PIT 23 PIT won
- 2024 wk 14 CLE 14, PIT 27 PIT won
- 2024 wk 12 PIT 19, CLE 24 CLE won
- 2023 wk 11 PIT 10, CLE 13 CLE won
Before the game
- Biggest mismatch: CLE's offense (6th) against PIT's defense (19th) in average drive start (yards to go).
The mismatch
- CLE's offense ranks 6th in average drive start (yards to go); PIT's defense ranks 19th against it.
- CLE's offense ranks T-14th in fourth-down conversion rate; PIT's defense ranks T-26th against it.
- CLE's offense ranks 11th in completion rate; PIT's defense ranks 23rd against it.
- PIT's offense ranks 11th in yards per carry; CLE's defense ranks 22nd against it.
- PIT's offense ranks 2nd in yards after catch; CLE's defense ranks 8th against it.
- PIT's offense ranks T-21st in share of drives ending in a turnover; CLE's defense ranks 27th against it.
Form and history
- Week 4, 2026: PIT (2 wins, 1 loss), on a 1-game winning streak at CLE (2 wins, 1 loss), on a 2-game winning streak.
- Head-to-head: PIT leads CLE 9–6–1 in games since 2018.
Starters and rest
- Projected starters: Aaron Rodgers for PIT, Deshaun Watson for CLE.
Final — the recap is on this game's result page.