KC at LV
What the site's algorithm makes of it
Power ratings as stored for week 4, 2026 — the set this week's picks were made from.
It makes KC the better side by 1.4.
Members see which side it is taking this week, and by how much it disagrees with the market.
Opened KC -4.5
Now KC -4.5
Line history: KC -4.5 ×34 (Sep 29–Oct 13)
Scoring offense
Percentile against the league. Outward is better; the inner ring is the median.
Scoring defense
Percentile against the league. Outward is better; the inner ring is the median.
Passing
Bubble size is touchdowns.
Rushing
Bubble size is touchdowns.
Drives
Longer is better. 50 is the league median.
Conversions
Longer is better. 50 is the league median.
Betting record — 2026
| Split | KC | LV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | SU 4-0 · ATS 2-2 · O/U 2-2 | SU 3-2 · ATS 4-1 · O/U 3-2 |
| At home | SU 2-0 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 1-1 | SU 1-1 · ATS 2-0 · O/U 1-1 |
| On the road | SU 2-0 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 1-1 | SU 2-1 · ATS 2-1 · O/U 2-1 |
| As favourite | SU 4-0 · ATS 2-2 · O/U 2-2 | SU 1-0 · ATS 1-0 · O/U 0-1 |
| As underdog | SU 2-2 · ATS 3-1 · O/U 3-1 | |
| In division | SU 2-0 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 1-1 | SU 1-1 · ATS 2-0 · O/U 1-1 |
| Out of division | SU 2-0 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 1-1 | SU 2-1 · ATS 2-1 · O/U 2-1 |
| Pick'em (±3) | SU 1-0 · ATS 1-0 · O/U 0-1 | SU 1-0 · ATS 1-0 · O/U 0-1 |
| Favoured by 3-7 | SU 2-0 · ATS 0-2 · O/U 2-0 | |
| Favoured by 7+ | SU 1-0 · ATS 1-0 · O/U 0-1 | |
| Dog by 3-7 | SU 2-2 · ATS 3-1 · O/U 3-1 |
SU = straight up · ATS = against the spread · O/U = over-under. Records count GAMES PLAYED.
Season to date — 2026
| Metric | KC | LV |
|---|---|---|
| 1st downs | ||
| Total | 82 | 103 |
| Passing | 46 | 70 |
| Rushing | 34 | 22 |
| From penalties | 11 | 10 |
| Efficiency | ||
| Third down | 22 of 49 | 27 of 64 |
| Fourth down | 5 of 7 | 4 of 8 |
| Volume | ||
| Total yards | 1,686 | 1,727 |
| Total plays | 249 | 317 |
| Yards per play | 6.8 | 5.4 |
| Drives | 44 | 59 |
| Passing | ||
| Passing yards | 1,037 | 1,317 |
| Completions | 82-135 | 118-191 |
| Yards per pass | 7.7 | 6.9 |
| Touchdowns | 9 | 12 |
| Interceptions | 2 | 4 |
| Sacks (yards lost) | 6 (38) | 8 (49) |
| Rushing | ||
| Rushing yards | 649 | 410 |
| Attempts | 118 | 137 |
| Yards per rush | 5.5 | 3.0 |
| Touchdowns | 5 | 2 |
| Red zone | ||
| Scores | 12 of 21 | 11 of 23 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties (yards) | 31 (255) | 31 (221) |
| Turnovers | ||
| Total | 2 | 5 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 3 |
| Interceptions thrown | 2 | 4 |
Full-season totals from the 2026 season, database N.
When these two have met
- 2026 wk 4 KC 30, LV 27 KC won
- 2025 wk 18 KC 12, LV 14 LV won
- 2025 wk 7 LV 0, KC 31 KC won
- 2024 wk 13 LV 17, KC 19 KC won
- 2024 wk 8 KC 27, LV 20 KC won
- 2023 wk 16 LV 20, KC 14 LV won
Before the game
- Biggest mismatch: KC's offense (1st) against LV's defense (22nd) in yards after catch.
The mismatch
- KC's offense ranks 1st in yards after catch; LV's defense ranks 22nd against it.
- LV's offense ranks 10th in sack rate (taken); KC's defense ranks 28th against it.
- KC's offense ranks 6th in yards per carry; LV's defense ranks 23rd against it.
- KC's offense ranks 6th in touchdown rate per pass; LV's defense ranks 20th against it.
- LV's offense ranks 11th in average drive start (yards to go); KC's defense ranks 22nd against it.
- LV's offense ranks 10th in third-down conversion rate; KC's defense ranks T-13th against it.
Form and history
- Week 4, 2026: KC (3 wins, 0 losses), on a 3-game winning streak at LV (3 wins, 0 losses), on a 3-game winning streak.
- Head-to-head: KC leads LV 13–3 in games since 2018.
Starters and rest
- Projected starters: Patrick Mahomes for KC, Kirk Cousins for LV.
Final — the recap is on this game's result page.