NE at JAX
What the site's algorithm makes of it
Power ratings as stored for week 3, 2026 — the set this week's picks were made from.
It makes JAX the better side by 1.8.
Members see which side it is taking this week, and by how much it disagrees with the market.
Opened JAX -2.5
Now JAX -3 — JAX favoured by 0.5 more since first recorded
Line history: JAX -2.5 ×2 (Sep 21–Sep 21) · JAX -3 ×46 (Sep 22–Nov 2)
The site's line is held at JAX -3 by an operator override; the market is at JAX -3.
Scoring offense
Percentile against the league. Outward is better; the inner ring is the median.
Scoring defense
Percentile against the league. Outward is better; the inner ring is the median.
Passing
Bubble size is touchdowns.
Rushing
Bubble size is touchdowns.
Drives
Longer is better. 50 is the league median.
Conversions
Longer is better. 50 is the league median.
Betting record — 2026
| Split | NE | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | SU 5-3 · ATS 3-4-1 · O/U 5-3 | SU 5-2 · ATS 4-3 · O/U 3-4 |
| At home | SU 3-0 · ATS 2-1 · O/U 2-1 | SU 4-1 · ATS 3-2 · O/U 3-2 |
| On the road | SU 2-3 · ATS 1-3-1 · O/U 3-2 | SU 1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 0-2 |
| As favourite | SU 4-0 · ATS 2-2 · O/U 3-1 | SU 4-1 · ATS 3-2 · O/U 3-2 |
| As underdog | SU 1-3 · ATS 1-2-1 · O/U 2-2 | SU 1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 0-2 |
| In division | SU 3-0 · ATS 1-2 · O/U 3-0 | SU 1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 2-0 |
| Out of division | SU 2-3 · ATS 2-2-1 · O/U 2-3 | SU 4-1 · ATS 3-2 · O/U 1-4 |
| Pick'em (±3) | SU 0-3 · ATS 0-2-1 · O/U 1-2 | SU 2-2 · ATS 2-2 · O/U 1-3 |
| Favoured by 3-7 | SU 2-0 · ATS 2-0 · O/U 1-1 | |
| Favoured by 7+ | SU 2-0 · ATS 0-2 · O/U 2-0 | SU 3-0 · ATS 2-1 · O/U 2-1 |
| Dog by 7+ | SU 1-0 · ATS 1-0 · O/U 1-0 |
SU = straight up · ATS = against the spread · O/U = over-under. Records count GAMES PLAYED.
Season to date — 2026
| Metric | NE | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| 1st downs | ||
| Total | 162 | 143 |
| Passing | 89 | 82 |
| Rushing | 61 | 53 |
| From penalties | 15 | 15 |
| Efficiency | ||
| Third down | 42 of 97 | 41 of 84 |
| Fourth down | 10 of 13 | 2 of 5 |
| Volume | ||
| Total yards | 3,014 | 2,558 |
| Total plays | 485 | 408 |
| Yards per play | 6.2 | 6.3 |
| Drives | 85 | 71 |
| Passing | ||
| Passing yards | 2,029 | 1,698 |
| Completions | 161-257 | 131-215 |
| Yards per pass | 7.9 | 7.9 |
| Touchdowns | 15 | 17 |
| Interceptions | 8 | 4 |
| Sacks (yards lost) | 16 (76) | 13 (106) |
| Rushing | ||
| Rushing yards | 985 | 860 |
| Attempts | 240 | 200 |
| Yards per rush | 4.1 | 4.3 |
| Touchdowns | 6 | 6 |
| Red zone | ||
| Scores | 12 of 33 | 13 of 30 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties (yards) | 61 (469) | 54 (455) |
| Turnovers | ||
| Total | 15 | 5 |
| Fumbles lost | 7 | 1 |
| Interceptions thrown | 8 | 4 |
Full-season totals from the 2026 season, database N.
When these two have met
- 2026 wk 3 NE 6, JAX 35 JAX won
- 2024 wk 7 NE 16, JAX 32 JAX won
- 2021 wk 17 JAX 10, NE 50 NE won
- 2018 wk 2 NE 20, JAX 31 JAX won
Before the game
- Biggest mismatch: NE's offense (14th) against JAX's defense (28th) in completion rate.
The mismatch
- NE's offense ranks 14th in completion rate; JAX's defense ranks 28th against it.
- JAX's offense ranks 10th in share of drives ending in a turnover; NE's defense ranks T-21st against it.
- NE's offense ranks 20th in yards per pass attempt; JAX's defense ranks 31st against it.
- NE's offense ranks 17th in yards per drive; JAX's defense ranks 27th against it.
- JAX's offense ranks T-1st in fumbles lost; NE's defense ranks T-9th against it.
- JAX's offense ranks 10th in expected points added rushing; NE's defense ranks 15th against it.
Form and history
- Week 3, 2026: NE (1 win, 1 loss), on a 1-game winning streak at JAX (1 win, 1 loss), on a 1-game losing streak.
- Head-to-head: JAX leads NE 2–1 in games since 2018.
Starters and rest
- Projected starters: Drake Maye for NE, Trevor Lawrence for JAX.
Final — the recap is on this game's result page.