KC at ATL
What the site's algorithm makes of it
Power ratings as stored for week 10, 2026 — the set this week's picks were made from.
It makes KC the better side by 5.
Members see which side it is taking this week, and by how much it disagrees with the market.
Opened KC -3
Now KC -3.5 — KC favoured by 0.5 more since first recorded
Line history: KC -3 (Nov 6) · KC -3.5 ×3 (Nov 9–Nov 10)
Scoring offense
Percentile against the league. Outward is better; the inner ring is the median.
Scoring defense
Percentile against the league. Outward is better; the inner ring is the median.
Passing
Bubble size is touchdowns.
Rushing
Bubble size is touchdowns.
Drives
Longer is better. 50 is the league median.
Conversions
Longer is better. 50 is the league median.
Betting record — 2026
| Split | KC | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | SU 6-2 · ATS 4-4 · O/U 3-5 | SU 3-6 · ATS 3-6 · O/U 4-5 |
| At home | SU 4-0 · ATS 3-1 · O/U 1-3 | SU 1-4 · ATS 1-4 · O/U 2-3 |
| On the road | SU 2-2 · ATS 1-3 · O/U 2-2 | SU 2-2 · ATS 2-2 · O/U 2-2 |
| As favourite | SU 6-0 · ATS 4-2 · O/U 2-4 | SU 0-1 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 1-0 |
| As underdog | SU 0-2 · ATS 0-2 · O/U 1-1 | SU 3-5 · ATS 3-5 · O/U 3-5 |
| In division | SU 3-1 · ATS 2-2 · O/U 2-2 | SU 1-2 · ATS 1-2 · O/U 1-2 |
| Out of division | SU 3-1 · ATS 2-2 · O/U 1-3 | SU 2-4 · ATS 2-4 · O/U 3-3 |
| Pick'em (±3) | SU 1-2 · ATS 1-2 · O/U 1-2 | SU 2-4 · ATS 2-4 · O/U 2-4 |
| Favoured by 3-7 | SU 2-0 · ATS 0-2 · O/U 2-0 | SU 0-1 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 1-0 |
| Favoured by 7+ | SU 3-0 · ATS 3-0 · O/U 0-3 | |
| Dog by 3-7 | SU 1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 1-1 |
SU = straight up · ATS = against the spread · O/U = over-under. Records count GAMES PLAYED.
Season to date — 2026
| Metric | KC | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st downs | ||
| Total | 164 | 158 |
| Passing | 94 | 74 |
| Rushing | 62 | 71 |
| From penalties | 20 | 15 |
| Efficiency | ||
| Third down | 40 of 95 | 37 of 105 |
| Fourth down | 8 of 13 | 4 of 12 |
| Volume | ||
| Total yards | 3,139 | 3,001 |
| Total plays | 485 | 525 |
| Yards per play | 6.5 | 5.7 |
| Drives | 86 | 100 |
| Passing | ||
| Passing yards | 2,037 | 1,766 |
| Completions | 177-275 | 156-275 |
| Yards per pass | 7.4 | 6.4 |
| Touchdowns | 14 | 11 |
| Interceptions | 4 | 12 |
| Sacks (yards lost) | 11 (66) | 16 (97) |
| Rushing | ||
| Rushing yards | 1,102 | 1,235 |
| Attempts | 217 | 258 |
| Yards per rush | 5.1 | 4.8 |
| Touchdowns | 10 | 9 |
| Red zone | ||
| Scores | 19 of 35 | 16 of 31 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties (yards) | 55 (484) | 60 (538) |
| Turnovers | ||
| Total | 6 | 15 |
| Fumbles lost | 2 | 4 |
| Interceptions thrown | 4 | 12 |
Full-season totals from the 2026 season, database N.
When these two have met
- 2024 wk 3 KC 22, ATL 17 KC won
- 2020 wk 16 ATL 14, KC 17 KC won
Before the game
- Biggest mismatch: KC's offense (5th) against ATL's defense (28th) in completion rate.
The mismatch
- KC's offense ranks 5th in completion rate; ATL's defense ranks 28th against it.
- KC's offense ranks 8th in interception rate (thrown); ATL's defense ranks 30th against it.
- KC's offense ranks 1st in yards per carry; ATL's defense ranks 22nd against it.
- ATL's offense ranks 12th in sack rate (taken); KC's defense ranks 31st against it.
- ATL's offense ranks 11th in yards after catch; KC's defense ranks 22nd against it.
- ATL's offense ranks T-3rd in rushing first downs; KC's defense ranks 7th against it.
Form and history
- Week 10, 2026: KC (6 wins, 2 losses), on a 1-game winning streak at ATL (3 wins, 6 losses), on a 2-game losing streak.
- KC: yards after catch allowed 535.0 over the last four weeks, up from 462.0 — 5th to 30th in the league.
- ATL: rushing first downs allowed 36.0 over the last four weeks, up from 24.0 — 4th to 30th in the league.
- Head-to-head: KC leads ATL 2–0 in games since 2020.
Starters and rest
- Projected starters: Patrick Mahomes for KC, Michael Penix Jr. for ATL.