JAX at TEN
What the site's algorithm makes of it
Power ratings as stored for week 10, 2026 — the set this week's picks were made from.
It makes JAX the better side by 8.4.
Members see which side it is taking this week, and by how much it disagrees with the market.
Opened JAX -10
Now JAX -10.5 — JAX favoured by 0.5 more since first recorded
Line history: JAX -10 (Nov 6) · JAX -9.5 (Nov 9) · JAX -10.5 ×2 (Nov 10–Nov 10)
Scoring offense
Percentile against the league. Outward is better; the inner ring is the median.
Scoring defense
Percentile against the league. Outward is better; the inner ring is the median.
Passing
Bubble size is touchdowns.
Rushing
Bubble size is touchdowns.
Drives
Longer is better. 50 is the league median.
Conversions
Longer is better. 50 is the league median.
Betting record — 2026
| Split | JAX | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | SU 6-2 · ATS 5-3 · O/U 4-4 | SU 1-7 · ATS 4-4 · O/U 4-4 |
| At home | SU 4-1 · ATS 3-2 · O/U 3-2 | SU 0-4 · ATS 1-3 · O/U 2-2 |
| On the road | SU 2-1 · ATS 2-1 · O/U 1-2 | SU 1-3 · ATS 3-1 · O/U 2-2 |
| As favourite | SU 5-1 · ATS 4-2 · O/U 4-2 | SU 0-1 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 0-1 |
| As underdog | SU 1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 0-2 | SU 1-6 · ATS 4-3 · O/U 4-3 |
| In division | SU 1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 2-0 | SU 1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 1-1 |
| Out of division | SU 5-1 · ATS 4-2 · O/U 2-4 | SU 0-6 · ATS 3-3 · O/U 3-3 |
| Pick'em (±3) | SU 2-2 · ATS 2-2 · O/U 1-3 | SU 0-3 · ATS 0-3 · O/U 1-2 |
| Favoured by 7+ | SU 4-0 · ATS 3-1 · O/U 3-1 | |
| Dog by 3-7 | SU 1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 1-1 | |
| Dog by 7+ | SU 0-3 · ATS 3-0 · O/U 2-1 |
SU = straight up · ATS = against the spread · O/U = over-under. Records count GAMES PLAYED.
Season to date — 2026
| Metric | JAX | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| 1st downs | ||
| Total | 159 | 130 |
| Passing | 93 | 73 |
| Rushing | 57 | 43 |
| From penalties | 16 | 10 |
| Efficiency | ||
| Third down | 45 of 96 | 34 of 94 |
| Fourth down | 2 of 5 | 4 of 10 |
| Volume | ||
| Total yards | 2,877 | 2,279 |
| Total plays | 463 | 452 |
| Yards per play | 6.2 | 5.0 |
| Drives | 83 | 83 |
| Passing | ||
| Passing yards | 1,940 | 1,483 |
| Completions | 147-241 | 155-263 |
| Yards per pass | 8.0 | 5.6 |
| Touchdowns | 18 | 6 |
| Interceptions | 4 | 5 |
| Sacks (yards lost) | 13 (106) | 13 (99) |
| Rushing | ||
| Rushing yards | 937 | 796 |
| Attempts | 230 | 190 |
| Yards per rush | 4.1 | 4.2 |
| Touchdowns | 8 | 8 |
| Red zone | ||
| Scores | 15 of 35 | 12 of 25 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties (yards) | 58 (479) | 53 (410) |
| Turnovers | ||
| Total | 6 | 10 |
| Fumbles lost | 2 | 7 |
| Interceptions thrown | 4 | 5 |
Full-season totals from the 2026 season, database N.
When these two have met
- 2025 wk 18 TEN 7, JAX 41 JAX won
- 2025 wk 13 JAX 25, TEN 3 JAX won
- 2024 wk 17 TEN 13, JAX 20 JAX won
- 2024 wk 14 JAX 10, TEN 6 JAX won
- 2023 wk 18 JAX 20, TEN 28 TEN won
- 2023 wk 11 TEN 14, JAX 34 JAX won
Before the game
- Biggest mismatch: JAX's offense (2nd) against TEN's defense (29th) in expected points added passing.
The mismatch
- JAX's offense ranks 2nd in expected points added passing; TEN's defense ranks 29th against it.
- JAX's offense ranks 2nd in yards per pass attempt; TEN's defense ranks 29th against it.
- JAX's offense ranks 2nd in net yards per pass attempt; TEN's defense ranks 28th against it.
- TEN's offense ranks 6th in average drive start (yards to go); JAX's defense ranks 23rd against it.
- TEN's offense ranks 9th in sack rate (taken); JAX's defense ranks 23rd against it.
- TEN's offense ranks 20th in completion rate; JAX's defense ranks 26th against it.
Form and history
- Week 10, 2026: JAX (6 wins, 2 losses), on a 2-game winning streak at TEN (1 win, 7 losses), on a 2-game losing streak.
- JAX: yards per drive allowed 24.9 over the last four weeks, down from 34.4 — 29th to 5th in the league.
- TEN: takeaway rate (share of opponent drives) 27.0 over the last four weeks, up from 3.8 — 31st to 2nd in the league.
- Head-to-head: the series is level at 8–8 in games since 2018.
Starters and rest
- Projected starters: Trevor Lawrence for JAX, Cam Ward for TEN.
- TEN enters on 14 days rest to JAX's 10.