BUF at NYJ
What the site's algorithm makes of it
Power ratings as stored for week 10, 2026 — the set this week's picks were made from.
It makes BUF the better side by 3.7.
Members see which side it is taking this week, and by how much it disagrees with the market.
Opened BUF -7.5
Now BUF -8.5 — BUF favoured by 1 more since first recorded
Line history: BUF -7.5 ×2 (Nov 6–Nov 9) · BUF -8.5 ×2 (Nov 10–Nov 10)
Scoring offense
Percentile against the league. Outward is better; the inner ring is the median.
Scoring defense
Percentile against the league. Outward is better; the inner ring is the median.
Passing
Bubble size is touchdowns.
Rushing
Bubble size is touchdowns.
Drives
Longer is better. 50 is the league median.
Conversions
Longer is better. 50 is the league median.
Betting record — 2026
| Split | BUF | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | SU 7-1 · ATS 6-2 · O/U 5-3 | SU 2-7 · ATS 4-4-1 · O/U 4-5 |
| At home | SU 3-1 · ATS 3-1 · O/U 2-2 | SU 1-3 · ATS 2-2 · O/U 2-2 |
| On the road | SU 4-0 · ATS 3-1 · O/U 3-1 | SU 1-4 · ATS 2-2-1 · O/U 2-3 |
| As favourite | SU 6-1 · ATS 5-2 · O/U 4-3 | SU 1-2 · ATS 1-2 · O/U 2-1 |
| As underdog | SU 1-0 · ATS 1-0 · O/U 1-0 | SU 1-5 · ATS 3-2-1 · O/U 2-4 |
| In division | SU 0-1 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 1-0 | SU 0-2 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 2-0 |
| Out of division | SU 7-0 · ATS 6-1 · O/U 4-3 | SU 2-5 · ATS 3-3-1 · O/U 2-5 |
| Pick'em (±3) | SU 3-0 · ATS 3-0 · O/U 1-2 | SU 2-1 · ATS 2-1 · O/U 1-2 |
| Favoured by 3-7 | SU 2-0 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 2-0 | SU 0-1 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 1-0 |
| Favoured by 7+ | SU 1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 1-1 | |
| Dog by 3-7 | SU 1-0 · ATS 1-0 · O/U 1-0 | SU 0-2 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 0-2 |
| Dog by 7+ | SU 0-3 · ATS 1-1-1 · O/U 2-1 |
SU = straight up · ATS = against the spread · O/U = over-under. Records count GAMES PLAYED.
Season to date — 2026
| Metric | BUF | NYJ |
|---|---|---|
| 1st downs | ||
| Total | 188 | 160 |
| Passing | 93 | 91 |
| Rushing | 83 | 61 |
| From penalties | 24 | 24 |
| Efficiency | ||
| Third down | 42 of 92 | 41 of 112 |
| Fourth down | 8 of 10 | 6 of 11 |
| Volume | ||
| Total yards | 3,200 | 3,025 |
| Total plays | 504 | 525 |
| Yards per play | 6.3 | 5.8 |
| Drives | 90 | 94 |
| Passing | ||
| Passing yards | 2,027 | 2,078 |
| Completions | 156-257 | 183-302 |
| Yards per pass | 7.9 | 6.9 |
| Touchdowns | 12 | 12 |
| Interceptions | 6 | 3 |
| Sacks (yards lost) | 17 (109) | 28 (236) |
| Rushing | ||
| Rushing yards | 1,173 | 947 |
| Attempts | 261 | 231 |
| Yards per rush | 4.5 | 4.1 |
| Touchdowns | 17 | 5 |
| Red zone | ||
| Scores | 22 of 42 | 10 of 34 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties (yards) | 68 (583) | 73 (572) |
| Turnovers | ||
| Total | 12 | 7 |
| Fumbles lost | 6 | 4 |
| Interceptions thrown | 6 | 3 |
Full-season totals from the 2026 season, database N.
When these two have met
- 2025 wk 18 NYJ 8, BUF 35 BUF won
- 2025 wk 2 BUF 30, NYJ 10 BUF won
- 2024 wk 17 NYJ 14, BUF 40 BUF won
- 2024 wk 6 BUF 23, NYJ 20 BUF won
- 2023 wk 11 NYJ 6, BUF 32 BUF won
- 2023 wk 1 BUF 16, NYJ 22 NYJ won
Before the game
- Biggest mismatch: BUF's offense (1st) against NYJ's defense (31st) in rushing first downs.
The mismatch
- BUF's offense ranks 1st in rushing first downs; NYJ's defense ranks 31st against it.
- BUF's offense ranks 1st in expected points added; NYJ's defense ranks 27th against it.
- BUF's offense ranks 3rd in points per drive; NYJ's defense ranks 26th against it.
- NYJ's offense ranks 18th in average drive start (yards to go); BUF's defense ranks 32nd against it.
- NYJ's offense ranks 5th in interception rate (thrown); BUF's defense ranks 18th against it.
- NYJ's offense ranks 16th in fourth-down conversion rate; BUF's defense ranks 26th against it.
Form and history
- Week 10, 2026: BUF (7 wins, 1 loss), on a 4-game winning streak at NYJ (2 wins, 7 losses), on a 4-game losing streak.
- BUF: expected points added by the defense 45.9 over the last four weeks, up from -47.9 — 31st to 2nd in the league.
- NYJ: net yards per pass attempt allowed 7.5 over the last four weeks, up from 4.5 — 2nd to 31st in the league.
- Head-to-head: BUF leads NYJ 12–4 in games since 2018.
Starters and rest
- Projected starters: Josh Allen for BUF, Geno Smith for NYJ.
- NYJ enters on 7 days rest to BUF's 6.