Carolina Panthers — Rec TD, 2026

Value2.25
Rank#4 of 32
League average1.57
Rank in 2025#19 of 32

Carolina Panthers — every stat for 2026, ranked →

What Rec TD is

Receiving touchdowns: scoring plays made at the catch. The same events as passing touchdowns, credited from the receivers' side.

Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.

Through Week 6 of 2026, the 49ers lead at 2.60; the league average is 1.57.

League snapshot — 2026

League leader

SF · 2.60

League average

1.57

Best to worst

2.20

All 32 teams, higher is better.

At a glance — 2026

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

SF · 2.60

League laggard

MIA · 0.40

League average

1.57

Spread (max − min)

2.20

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	SF	2.60	1.03	100%
2	DET	2.40	0.83	96.8%
3	LV	2.40	0.83	93.5%
4	CAR	2.25	0.68	90.3%
5	KC	2.25	0.68	87.1%
6	CIN	2.20	0.63	83.9%
7	SEA	2.20	0.63	80.6%
8	GB	2	0.43	77.4%
9	JAX	2	0.43	74.2%
10	PIT	2	0.43	71%
11	ARI	1.80	0.23	67.7%
12	DAL	1.80	0.23	64.5%
13	LAR	1.80	0.23	61.3%
14	NO	1.80	0.23	58.1%
15	NYG	1.80	0.23	54.8%
16	BAL	1.60	0.03	51.6%
17	NE	1.60	0.03	48.4%
18	PHI	1.60	0.03	45.2%
19	WAS	1.60	0.03	41.9%
20	BUF	1.40	-0.17	38.7%
21	CLE	1.40	-0.17	35.5%
22	DEN	1.20	-0.37	32.3%
23	HOU	1.20	-0.37	29%
24	NYJ	1.20	-0.37	25.8%
25	LAC	1	-0.57	22.6%
26	MIN	1	-0.57	19.4%
27	ATL	0.80	-0.77	16.1%
28	CHI	0.80	-0.77	12.9%
29	TB	0.80	-0.77	9.7%
30	IND	0.60	-0.97	6.5%
31	TEN	0.60	-0.97	3.2%
32	MIA	0.40	-1.17	0%

Does Rec TD matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 869–709–37 ATS (55.1%) across 2020–2025, #71 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2020 (144–110, 56.7%); its worst 2023 (134–124, 51.9%).

For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	144–110–2	56.7%
2021	272	153–117–2	56.7%
2022	271	145–119–7	54.9%
2023	272	134–124–14	51.9%
2024	272	146–117–9	55.5%
2025	272	147–122–3	54.6%

Rec TD in 2026 vs 2025

49ers lead at 2.60 — they ranked #4 last year. Dolphins are last at 0.40 — #23 last year.

The league average is 1.57, up 0.07 from 1.49 last year.

Biggest riser: Raiders, #25 → #3. Biggest faller: Bears, #10 → #28.

Spread between first and last: 2.20; 19 teams are within 0.59 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2026 vs 2025

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

LV · +1.22

Biggest faller

MIA · −0.95

Most consistent

DAL · −0.02

League trend 2026 vs 2025

▲ 0.07

Rank	Team	2026	2025	Δ
1	LV	2.40	1.18	+1.22
2	KC	2.25	1.35	+0.90
3	CAR	2.25	1.41	+0.84
4	SEA	2.20	1.47	+0.73
5	NO	1.80	1.12	+0.68
6	SF	2.60	1.94	+0.66
7	NYG	1.80	1.24	+0.56
8	WAS	1.60	1.12	+0.48
9	GB	2	1.53	+0.47
10	PIT	2	1.53	+0.47
11	CLE	1.40	0.94	+0.46
12	DET	2.40	2.06	+0.34
13	NYJ	1.20	0.88	+0.32
14	JAX	2	1.71	+0.29
15	BAL	1.60	1.35	+0.25
16	ARI	1.80	1.71	+0.09
17	CIN	2.20	2.12	+0.08
18	PHI	1.60	1.53	+0.07
19	DAL	1.80	1.82	−0.02
20	MIN	1	1.06	−0.06
21	HOU	1.20	1.41	−0.21
22	NE	1.60	1.82	−0.22
23	DEN	1.20	1.47	−0.27
24	TEN	0.60	0.88	−0.28
25	BUF	1.40	1.71	−0.31
26	ATL	0.80	1.12	−0.32
27	LAC	1	1.53	−0.53
28	TB	0.80	1.53	−0.73
29	CHI	0.80	1.65	−0.85
30	IND	0.60	1.47	−0.87
31	LAR	1.80	2.71	−0.91
32	MIA	0.40	1.35	−0.95

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

GB · 1.99

Multi-year laggard

NYG · 1.06

Biggest improver

CAR · +0.19/yr

Biggest decliner

TB · −0.24/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	GB	1.99	−0.16	3	2.29	1.59	1.88	1.65	1.53	2
2	CIN	1.99	+0.12	1.19	2.12	2.19	1.59	2.53	2.12	2.20
3	KC	1.98	−0.12	2.50	2.18	2.41	1.65	1.53	1.35	2.25
4	BUF	1.91	−0.16	2.50	2.12	2.19	1.71	1.76	1.71	1.40
5	DET	1.89	+0.15	1.69	1.35	1.71	1.76	2.29	2.06	2.40
6	TB	1.87	−0.24	2.63	2.53	1.53	1.65	2.41	1.53	0.80
7	SF	1.81	+0.13	1.56	1.53	1.76	1.94	1.35	1.94	2.60
8	DAL	1.81	−0.02	1.56	2.35	1.65	2.12	1.35	1.82	1.80
9	SEA	1.76	−0.07	2.50	1.76	1.76	1.35	1.24	1.47	2.20
10	LAR	1.70	+0.09	1.25	2.41	0.94	1.53	1.29	2.71	1.80
11	MIN	1.69	−0.18	2.19	2	1.76	1.76	2.06	1.06	1
12	LAC	1.57	−0.16	1.94	2.24	1.53	1.41	1.35	1.53	1
13	BAL	1.57	+0.05	1.69	1.24	1.12	1.59	2.41	1.35	1.60
14	NO	1.52	−0.04	1.75	1.71	1.41	1.65	1.24	1.12	1.80
15	LV	1.52	+0.04	1.75	1.35	1.65	1.18	1.12	1.18	2.40
16	ARI	1.44	+0.03	1.69	1.59	1	1.06	1.24	1.71	1.80
17	PHI	1.43	+0.05	1.38	1.18	1.47	1.41	1.41	1.53	1.60
18	JAX	1.41	+0.11	1.56	0.71	1.47	1.29	1.12	1.71	2
19	HOU	1.41	−0.08	2.06	1.24	1.18	1.59	1.18	1.41	1.20
20	PIT	1.40	+0.01	2.19	1.35	0.71	0.76	1.24	1.53	2
21	DEN	1.38	+0.03	1.31	1.18	1.06	1.65	1.76	1.47	1.20
22	WAS	1.35	+0.07	1	1.24	1.41	1.41	1.71	1.12	1.60
23	MIA	1.33	−0.13	1.50	1.24	1.76	1.76	1.29	1.35	0.40
24	CLE	1.27	−0.05	1.69	1.24	1.12	1.41	1.12	0.94	1.40
25	NE	1.24	+0.12	0.75	1.41	1.12	0.94	1.06	1.82	1.60
26	CAR	1.21	+0.19	1	0.82	0.94	0.76	1.29	1.41	2.25
27	CHI	1.20	−0.04	1.63	0.94	1.12	1.12	1.18	1.65	0.80
28	IND	1.20	−0.10	1.50	1.59	1	1.06	1.18	1.47	0.60
29	ATL	1.15	−0.09	1.69	1.18	1	1	1.24	1.12	0.80
30	TEN	1.13	−0.17	2.06	1.29	0.94	0.82	1.29	0.88	0.60
31	NYJ	1.09	+0.03	1	1.18	0.88	0.65	1.82	0.88	1.20
32	NYG	1.06	+0.13	0.75	0.88	1	0.88	0.88	1.24	1.80

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
SF	1.56	1.53	1.76	1.94	1.35	1.94	2.60
DET	1.69	1.35	1.71	1.76	2.29	2.06	2.40
LV	1.75	1.35	1.65	1.18	1.12	1.18	2.40
CAR	1	0.82	0.94	0.76	1.29	1.41	2.25
KC	2.50	2.18	2.41	1.65	1.53	1.35	2.25
CIN	1.19	2.12	2.19	1.59	2.53	2.12	2.20
SEA	2.50	1.76	1.76	1.35	1.24	1.47	2.20
GB	3	2.29	1.59	1.88	1.65	1.53	2
JAX	1.56	0.71	1.47	1.29	1.12	1.71	2
PIT	2.19	1.35	0.71	0.76	1.24	1.53	2
ARI	1.69	1.59	1	1.06	1.24	1.71	1.80
DAL	1.56	2.35	1.65	2.12	1.35	1.82	1.80
LAR	1.25	2.41	0.94	1.53	1.29	2.71	1.80
NO	1.75	1.71	1.41	1.65	1.24	1.12	1.80
NYG	0.75	0.88	1	0.88	0.88	1.24	1.80
BAL	1.69	1.24	1.12	1.59	2.41	1.35	1.60
NE	0.75	1.41	1.12	0.94	1.06	1.82	1.60
PHI	1.38	1.18	1.47	1.41	1.41	1.53	1.60
WAS	1	1.24	1.41	1.41	1.71	1.12	1.60
BUF	2.50	2.12	2.19	1.71	1.76	1.71	1.40
CLE	1.69	1.24	1.12	1.41	1.12	0.94	1.40
DEN	1.31	1.18	1.06	1.65	1.76	1.47	1.20
HOU	2.06	1.24	1.18	1.59	1.18	1.41	1.20
NYJ	1	1.18	0.88	0.65	1.82	0.88	1.20
LAC	1.94	2.24	1.53	1.41	1.35	1.53	1
MIN	2.19	2	1.76	1.76	2.06	1.06	1
ATL	1.69	1.18	1	1	1.24	1.12	0.80
CHI	1.63	0.94	1.12	1.12	1.18	1.65	0.80
TB	2.63	2.53	1.53	1.65	2.41	1.53	0.80
IND	1.50	1.59	1	1.06	1.18	1.47	0.60
TEN	2.06	1.29	0.94	0.82	1.29	0.88	0.60
MIA	1.50	1.24	1.76	1.76	1.29	1.35	0.40

Rec TD since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Chiefs (3.13), 2019 Ravens (2.31), 2020 Packers (3), 2021 Buccaneers (2.53), 2022 Chiefs (2.41), 2023 Cowboys (2.12), 2024 Bengals (2.53), 2025 Rams (2.71), 2026 49ers (2.60).

Chiefs have led this stat 2 of 9 seasons.

The best season on record is Chiefs 2018 at 3.13; the worst Dolphins 2026 at 0.40.

The league average has fallen from 1.65 in 2018 to 1.57 in 2026.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2026.

About this stat

Stat ID: off_receiving_rec_td
Side: offensive
Family: Receiving
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: count
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.