Raiders – Jets Davante Adams Trade – Inside The Numbers

The Raiders and Jets made the trade everyone wanted, Davante Adams to the Jets and Aaron Rodgers for a conditional 3rd round pick.  The pick can turn into a 2nd if Adams becomes a first- or second-team All-Pro this season, or if he’s on the active roster should the Jets make the AFC Championship Game or Super Bowl LIX.  All is right in the world, end of story.

But are we watching the same story or are we simply remembering a story from years ago?  Before getting into the numbers, there are some really intriguing underlying stories to this trade depending on how it turns out.

If Adams comes in and the Jets rally to make the playoffs and a little noise:

• What does this say about Rodgers without Adams?  Now, and back in Green Bay?
• What does this say about Garrett Wilson? He is not a #1 WR?
• What does it say about the Jets front office?  If the answer was this simple why did they wait to do it?

If Adams comes in and the Jets fade to .500 or worse:

• What does this say about Rodgers?
• What does this say about Adams?
• What does this say about Wilson (x2) that he can’t even be a #2 effectively with Rodgers at least?
• What does it say about the Jets front office?

My guess is that Jets fans and players don’t care about any of that as long as they win and make the playoffs.  So let’s take a look at the stats and see if the Adams trade is exactly what the Jets needed.

Davante Adams – The Glory Days

The chart above shows Adams statistics from 2020 – 2022 when he had his most productive season.  In addition, the team stats for the 2020-21 Packers and 2022 Raiders are also shown.  His Air Yards per target was between 9.1 – 12.1, his yards/rec was between 11.9 – 15.2.  All this points to Adams catching intermediate and long passes, and his deep % was between 12.8% and 17.8%.

His yards per route is betweem 2.6 – 3.1.  He was targeted about 30% – 33% of the time, his EPA/tgt was between 0.22 – 0.49.  The offenses he was in were producing positive EPA/Pass, much more so in Green Bay than Las Vegas, but even there in 2022 the team EPA/pass was 0.01, so average.

This all looks good, no complaints here.

Davante Adams in 2023 -24

Disregard the red color to a few values for now, we will come to them in a minute.  The chart above shows Adams and the Raiders stats for 2023 -24.

Adams has an EPA/tgt of just 0.05 – 0.07.  His average air yards per target is still 10, and yards per reception still 11, but his yards per route is down to 1.7 – 2.0.  Yet his average separation is pretty much the same.

Meanwhile, the Raiders pass offense has been below average to put it kindly.  EPA/pass of -0.12 and -0.16.  Pass yards per play a mere 5.6.  So Adams has been held down by an inefficient, and perhaps even suspect passing offense in Las Vegas.  Now the chains are off and he can flourish once again.

Adams Is The Product Of His Quarterback

So if we go with the, Adams was held back by an below average Raiders passing attack the past few years theory, then reuniting with Rodgers should bring back the Davante Adams, and in theory the Aaron Rodgers, we all know and remember.

So let’s pull the Raiders quarterback stats.  And to make it more interesting, I am going to toss out Garoppolo and Minshew, and just go with Aidan O’Connells’ stats as a rookie last year and his play so far this year.  Surely this is a low bar to set.

You can dig into his stats, but they are not that good.  Passer rating around 80.  EPA/DB between -0.04 & -0.09.  Yards per pass around 6, and air yards per attempt around 7.  This all checks out.  Adams is dealing with substandard quarterback play.

Aaron Rodgers & The Jets 2024

So I wrote an entire article basically confirming everything everyone has said and believed.  Adams has been rotting out in LV due to bad quarterback play, and reuniting with Rodgers in NY is a match made in heaven.

Until you look at Rodgers & the Jets stats….

Now remember, I took a rookie 4th round QB stats for the Raiders so I wasn’t setting up Rodgers, but look at his 2024 stats compared to O’Connells’ 2023 & 2024 stats.  They are almost identical in every way, especially O’Connell 2023 vs Rodgers 2024.

Rodgers deep% is a pitiful 6.5%. His air yards per target is 6.5, his passer rating is mid 80’s and his EPA/DB is -0.08.

Remember when I said to ignore the red values in the Raiders passing stats in the chart above?  Now I want you to focus in on the red values.  There is a lot of similarity between the 2024 Jets & Raiders passing offenses.

Jets Receiver Splits

There is another issue with Adams joining the Jets.  If he is WR1 and the deep threat, what is Allen Lazard going to do?  Lazard basically has excelled in the few long balls he has been thrown.  He’s ok as a short receiver and he is terrible so far on intermediate routes.

While we are finding Lazard something to do, what is Garrett Wilson’s job going to be?  Is he WR3 playing out wide, and Lazard goes into the slot?  As much as I question lazard’s role, Wilson’s splits are bad no matter the length of the pass.  And is Mike Williams now WR4?

Maximizing The Trade Depends More On Rodgers Than Adams

Essentially Davante Adams is going to a team who’s passing offense and quarterback play is almost exactly the same as the one he left.  If anything, Rodgers has less propensity to go deep than Aidan O’Connell.  Rodgers is behind the better OL with better weapons, and he is still producing O’Connell stats.

For the trade to be a success, the Jets need three things:

1. Davante Adams to be 90% or better of the receiver he was in 2020-2022
2. Aaron Rodgers to play like an above average quarterback, or at least better than Aidan O’Connell.
3. The Adams-Rodgers connection adds some throws or routes Rodgers prefers, or they get better production with Adams given the same routes and throws.  The back shoulder throws Rodgers used to hit with devastating effect, and adjustment to routes that are the adjustments Rodgers expects and demands.  Rodgers wants everyone to do what he expects, no exceptions.  This is why blitzing Rodgers has been an effective tool in stopping him in 2024.  When defenses blitz it makes things harder for everyone to do exactly what he wants, including him.

It’s possible that Adams is the same receiver he was between 2020 – 2022, but if Rodgers plays the way he has been playing it won’t matter.  If Adams doesn’t add the deep ball or those back shoulder throws and route adjustments, he is just an older, more experienced Garrett Wilson playing with a quarterback with limited mobility who dinks and dunks.