Aaron Rodgers In 2024 – Can The Grandmaster Be Beaten?

Aaron Rodgers has been baffling NFL defenses for almost 20 years.  He is neither the biggest, nor the strongest, but he has certainly been one of the best.  Now that he is 40 years old, there should be some evolution to his game as he, like all of us, fights Father Time’s ability to sap physical skills.  So let’s grab some Rodgers’ stats from pro.nfl.com and see if there has been any changes to his game since 2018(the first year of next gen stats).

Rodgers Passing Stats 2018 -2024

The chart above shows some of Rodgers’ basic and advanced metrics from 2018 -2024.  2022 is his “off year”, his last with the Packers.  2023 is missing because of injury.

The Same in 2024

• Completion % at 64.1%. In 2022 it was 64.6%
• EPA/DB is -0.05.  In 2022 it was -0.04
• Passer Rating 92.9.  In 2022 it was 91.1
• YPA is 6.6, in 2022 it was 6.8
• Blitz % faced is 28.9%, it was 28.1% in 2022
• QB pressure % is 26.7%, up from 24.5% in 2022
• Separation around 3.3 yards, down from 3.7 in 2022

The Unusual in 2024

• TD % is 3.9%.  Down from 4.8% in 2022
• AY/Att is 6.1 yards, down from 8 in 2022.
• Deep % is 4.7%.  This is WAY DOWN, from 14.2%
• Time to Throw is 2.52, down from 2.70
• Tight Window % up to 18.8% (ranked 5th).

Attempting to summarize the unusual leads one to the first obvious question; what is the status of Rodgers’ arm strength?  He had a plus arm, but is it now merely average?  Air yards per attempt of 6.1 puts him tied for 29th withTagovailoa and above Daniels. (Patrick Mahomes is 32nd at 5.1).

Deep % of 4.7% ranks him 31st, tied with Mayfield & ahead of only Mahomes  The 2.52 sec to throw makes him 4th fastest(tied with Daniels), behind Mayfield and ahead of Derek Carr.  He has been the 18th most blitzed quarterback so far; slightly more than Josh Allen and slightly less than Bo Nix.  However he was 28th most blitzed after 3 weeks, so Denver really blitzed him to no end in their 10 – 9 victory in a rain soaked Meadowlands.

To Blitz Or Not To Blitz

Rodgers vs. No Blitz

The chart above is Rodgers’ stats when NOT facing a blitz. From 2018 – 2020 if you didn’t blitz Rodgers, he would simply find the open man; no need to throw into tight windows.  His tight window % was between 10% -12% and he ranked at the bottom in tight window throws.  In the past few years his tight window % has risen to around 15% to just outside the top 10.  In 2024 it has risen to almost 18%.

What is quite interesting is that in 2024, when not blitzed, Rodgers is getting rid of the ball in 2.51 seconds with average separation of 3.3 yards.  He is finding the open man and hitting him.  The quicker throws may be the result of the lower amount of play action the Jets have used on plays Rodgers was not blitzed, a mere 14.4%.

However again we see a very low AY/Att at 6 and a Deep % of just 5.6%.  Rodgers is not looking to go deep, or even intermediate when not blitzed.  He reads the defense, identifies who is going to be open, and gets him the ball quickly, allowing the receiver to maximize yards after catch.

Rodgers vs The Blitz

Above we see Rodgers’ stats against the blitz.  Historically he has destroyed the blitz.  From 2018 -2021, blitzing him was to do so at your own peril.  In 2022 the blitz worked against him, forcing 4 interceptions and a INT % of 2.6%.  2020 was another season he threw 4 INTs vs. the blitz, but he threw only 1 in 2021, and zero in both 2018 & 2019.

One of the oddities in the splits, is that Rodgers almost always tries longers throws against the blitz than when not blitzed.  The only year when Rodgers AY/ATT were higher against no blitz was 2021.  In every other year his AY/ATT is higher when facing a blitz then not.

The one stat that is interesting is the Play Action % (PA%).  In 2020 and 2022, the years where he threw four interceptions vs the blitz, there was play action about 40% of the time.  He used to force the ball a bit more against the blitz in 2018-19(20% -23%), then stopped forcing it as much from 2020 -2022 (12% – 17%).

In all the years 2020 -2024, the play action % when being blitzed has been near 40%.  But there are some huge differences in 2024 statistics:

• • QB pressure % against the blitz jumps to 35.7%.  It is 28.7% on average in 2024, and 23% when not facing the blitz.
  • Average separation is a mere 2.9 yards.  The Jets receivers are not getting wide open quickly.
  • Tight window % jumps to 21%.

Beating Aaron Rodgers & The NY Jets

This may be one of the dumbest sentences I’ve written about the NFL, but I think to beat Rodgers in 2024 you need to blitz him.  There are two things he has probably lost, arm strength and mobility.  However, he has gained knowledge, wisdom, and anticipation.  As opposed to a big armed gunslinger, he has morphed into more of cagey sniper, albeit carrying a rifle with limited range(or perhaps better to say, less range than it once had).

The times he has appeared mortal, or beatable, is when facing a blitz while caught in playaction.  Add in the mix the fact that the Jets receivers do not appear to be able to gain significant early separation.  So during playaction, you have Rodgers faking a handoff, turning around into a blitz(which most likely he knew it was coming and from where), and buying time to allow his receivers to get enough separation to fit in a tight window throw.

This is the best chance to get him to make an errant throw, or try to fit in a throw that a defensive back makes a good play on.  If you don’t blitz him, he is going to find the one option out of his 4 or 5 receivers that has separation and can run after the catch.  He basically knows what the defense is doing before they do it, so to allow him to sit in or just fire a quick pass out to the guy in a mismatch is inviting trouble.

If the Jets are going to run a high % of playaction passes, defenses may be best off sending an extra man downhill to either stuff the run, or get pressure if it is a fake.  If the defenders are all where Rodgers sees they are, and knows where they are going to be, he is most likely to dissect the defense and beat it.  By bringing in the randomness of a blitzer, particularly when his back is turned while doing the fake, you force him to make adjustments, while also forcing the Jets wide receivers to beat their man early.

The problem is, Rodgers is so football smart, he knows what his weaknesses are, and how best to play against him.  He will get out of plays he doesn’t like when he sees a blitz, and he will switch into plays he does like when the defense backs off.  Rodgers isn’t the guy you want to play chess with.  At this stage the best bet may be to try to turn it into more of chaotic street fight, limiting what the grandmaster can do or anticipate.

Rodgers Interception Against The 49ers In Pictures

The play starts with TE Rickert lining up outside Lazard at the bottom of the picture.

Ruckert then shifts inside to line up as a blocker who will leak out at the end of the play

The Jets are now in their set.  However the 49ers safety Odom, and MLB Warner recognize this shift requires a change in defensive formation and assignments.

Here are the routes that Jets receivers will run.  Rodgers will play fake to Hall.  Wilson is at the top and will be the target of an out route.  RB Hall will flare out underneathe the out route.  TE Conklin will run a shallow crossing pattern.  Lazard, at the bottom, is running a go route.  As mentioned Ruckert will leak out at the end of the play.

The 49ers other saftey, Brown drops down in coverage matching up against Conklin.  Flannigan-Fowles will pick up Hall out of the backfield.  Lenoir is on Wilson, Ward is on Lazard. Campbell will pick up Ruckert if he runs a route.

Odum drops way back to cover any kind of deep route in a single high safety look.  Rodgers decides to stay in the play.

The ball is snapped

Here is the play fake.  The Jets receivers get clean releases, Ruckert chips and see no blitz.

Rodgers reaches the top of the drop.  No Jets receiver has separation.

Rodgers is still waiting, and pressure is coming from his left.  Still no separation from the Jets receivers.

Rodgers steps up to avoid the pressure and buy more time.  Conklin has finally cleared traffic and is open but Rodgers is locked in on Wilson who has a yard or two.

Rodgers releases the pass and there are a few yards to fit it in.

Unfortunately for the Jets, the pass is slightly behind Wilson allowing Lenoir to make a play on it.

Lenoir get a hand or arm in and deflect the ball away.  Flannigan-Fowles who covered Hall underneath is looking right at the play and the ball deflects in his direction.

Flannigan-Fowles snags the interception and is immediately touched down.

On hindsight there were three options for Rodgers.  He could have checked out of the play once the 49ers shifted into the new coverage.  Once he decided to run it, he either needed to make a better throw due to the tight coverage, or simply throw it away.  The interception had a large dose of luck involved considered where the ball deflected to.

Fair to say this is a case where San Francisco made its’ own luck by recognizing the need to shift into a different coverage, and then making a play on a poorly thrown ball.