NFL Lines Picks Week 6 Results
Against The Spread 9 – 6
The Algorithm bounced back with a 9 – 6 record against the spread. This includes a very debatable 49ers loss as the algorithm had 49ers -5.61 on a closing line of -9.5. The issue was the 49ers opened at -3 prior to the Watson injury report. Thus the Algorithm would have been delighted to take the nearly 4 point overlay on the Browns had it had the option on the opening line. The Algorithm had another solid week picking favorites it sees as not giving up enough points going 6 – 3 to bring the record for picks on favorites for the season to 15 -10.
Over/Under Point Totals 4 – 11
Holy Unders Batman! We saw unders go 13-2 in week 6. This was preceeded by many huge drops in the early point totals. Someone knew something. Well if you missed out on the line movement tell on the unders, its back again this week.
Out of the 13 games on the slate this week, 12 of them had the over/under total move down in the early action. The only game to move up, Rams vs Steelers, moved up 0.5 points. Meanwhile early action saw:
- Bears/Raiders over/under -8 points
- Saints/Jaguars over/under -4.5 points
- Raven/Lions over/under -3.5 points
- Colts/Browns over/under -3 points
- Every other game, save Rams/Steelers, moved down 1 – 2 points on the point total.
Pick of the Week – TEXANS on the Moneyline
If you have been following the Algorithms picks, you know it loves the Texans. It went to the well again in week 6 seeing the Texans as a -1.5 favorite against the +1.5 spread. While not a cakewalk, Houston played its formula of good defense and minimal turnovers to score an outright 20 – 17 win.
The bad news? The Texans have a bye this week so the Algorithm is losing its automatic win of the week.
Punk of the Week – Lions @ Bucs
The Algorithm saw the Bucs as a small 0.5 point home favorite. That didn’t work out so well as the Lions came in and dominated the Bucs winning 20 – 6. If you would have told me before the game the Lions would only score 20, I would feel good about the Bucs -0.5 spread. But Baker and the gang laid an offensive egg and probably needed another 60 minutes to get close to 20 points.
