NFL 2024 – Knocking Out The Champ – NFC Teams vs San Francisco 49ers
Knocking Out The 49ers
READ MORE: NFL 2024 – Knocking Out The Champ – AFC Teams vs Kansas City Chiefs
I thought it would be interesting to compare all the NFL teams against their respective conference champion. So for this exercise, all the NFC teams will have their 2023 stats compared to the 49ers’ stats. This is not taking into account draft picks or free agent acquistions in the offseason. It is simply looking at how far away, or close, each team is to matching up favorably with the champion of their conference.
NFC Teams vs San Francisco 49ers
Below all the NFC teams’ stats were compared to the 49ers’ stats to see how they stack up against the defending NFC Champion. Thus all the color coding is confernce wide. This allows easy comparison between a team and the Niners. These are the raw stat values for each stat. Offenses are the top charts and the defenses are the bottom chart.
Where is San Francisco Vulnerable?
That answer to this, is almost nowhere. Interception % on offense and punt return average are the only specks of red to be found. There are several stats where the 49ers are just average, but that is offset by the majority of stats in which they are significantly above average.
Who Can Challenge The 49ers Offensively?
This kind of falls into two tiers. In the top tier would be Dallas and Detroit. Dallas has running back and punt return issues. The RB issue also effects their goal to go stats. Detroit has literally no offensive issues statistically. If anything, the Lions would appear to be even more potent than the 49ers when it comes to stats.
The second tier would be Philadelphia and LA Rams. Hurts needs to clean up whatever was going on last year, most likely injuries he tried to hide. With Barkley in the backfield it should reduce the wear and tear on Hurts and allow him to be more of a traditional QB at times. The Rams are spending almost 70% of their cap on offense so they better be able to put up some points.
Who Can Challenge The 49ers Defensively?
Here there are three teams that stand out; Atlanta, Dallas & New Orleans. Both Dallas and New Orleans are a bit worrisome. Dallas apparently took the off season off, literally. The lost players and replaced them with, well, no one. New Orleans was the oldest team in the league last year and has some serious cap issues. Those two things almost never mix well.
That leaves Atlanta, who instead of picking up an EDGE rushing in the draft, decided that they would draft a backup QB. This is after signing a very good QB to a massive contract. Perhaps the Falcons are secretly loaded with edge rushers on the practice squad, but the draft decision doesn’t make a whole lot of sense when you see how close Atlanta is to having a top tier defense.`
Note: The Falcons traded for Edge Matthew Judon and signed S Justin Simmons since the first draft of this article was written.
NFC Championship Odds
Here are estimated odds for the NFC Conference Champion.
The chart on the left assumes the 49ers make the NFC Championship game. In this chart % champ means appearance in the NFC Championship game.
The chart on the right are odds for all NFC teams and % champ means exactly that, chance of winning the NFC Championship.
Teams in green had a significant QB injury in 2023 that impacted their ratings.
Teams in red may have inflated ratings due to 2023 statistical performances that will probably not be replicated.
NFC Contenders vs Each Other
In this second NFC team comparison chart there are a few changes. The first is that while San Francisco’s raw stats still appear, all the other stats show the difference between the 49ers’ stats and the respective teams’ stats. So this chart is showing how much above/below, or better/worse, a teams’ stats are compared to the Niners.
The second major difference is that in the chart below, the conditional color coding DOES NOT include the 49ers. Thus this is attempting to show how the contenders match up against each other, or who is the most likely threats to the 49ers.
Which Team Is The #1 Contender For The 49ers’ Crown?
Based on the statistic, it would seem to be a shootout between Dallas & Detroit. Both the Cowboys and Lions would appear to have enough on both sides of the ball to give the Niners a scare.
Philadelphia has the offense, but their defense was woeful at best last year. They would need their young DTs and CBs to play at a high level to raise the standard high enough to be defensive contenders.
New Orleans & Atlanta are the opposite in that they appear to have high level defenses but suspect offenses. The Falcons addressed this with Cousins. The Saints addressed this to the wrong address and it came back.
The NFC sleeper may be the Packers who’s 2023 stats were negatively impacted by them stinking up the first half of last season, particularly Love. If we made similar charts based only on weeks 10-18, Green Bay would probably appear to be much more of a threat than they appear to be based on full season stats. You could say the same about the Bears to a lesser degree. Adding the #1 pick to the momentum they were building could see Chicago make a big leap in 2024
