NFL 2023 Quarterback Grades – QB Score – QBS vs Passer Rating vs QBR

Welcome to the NFL 2023 Quarterback midseason grades.

Analyzing quarterback play isn’t easy.  As mentioned in the trade deadline post, the Cardinals traded Joshua Dobbs for a Bag of Peanuts and started Clayton Tune.  Who was analyzing quarterback play in Arizona that day?

There was a huge debate on whether to draft Payton Manning or Ryan Leaf #1.  Basically half the league was on mild hallucinogens that year when it came to analyzing quarterback play. So let’s dive into the murky qb ratings waters and see if the stats can lead us to a better rating system.

In this article we will use QB Score (QBS) to break down the stats of all 32 starting quarterbacks. Each quarterback will be assigned a letter grade based on their overall QBS.  If you are interested, this article will fully explain how QB Score is calculated.

QB Score Metrics

The quarterbacks will have all 14 metrics slotted into 4 categories: Real Strength, Strength, Weakness, Real Weakness.  It is very important to recognize that QB Score is a COMPARATIVE quarterback rating system.  The metric scores received by each quarterback are generated based on their performance against all other quarterbacks in that metric.

Some Real Strengths(Pressure, IAY/PA) are not strengths of the QB skill set, but rather measurements.  Real Strength Pressure % just means the quarterback has faced a lot of pressure compared to other Qbs.  What it does not mean is that the qb is good at dealing with pressure.  Real Strength IAY/PA just means the qb attempts to throw further downfield than his peers on average, not that he is any good at it.  These type of metrics have counter metrics that work in tandem to actually measure a quarterback skill component.

Calculating Grades, Strengths & Weaknesses

Let’s look at how grades, strength & weaknesses are identified statistically.  This is the little bit of math part but it is something you are already familar with if you ever had a teacher grade on the curve.

The unit of measure for QB Score is Standard Deviation units (StDev).  Very simply, StDev units measure how unusually good or bad a statistic is compared to the range it is in.  In mathematics:

• 68.26% of the data should fit within +/- 1 StDev unit
• 95.44% of a data range should fit within +/- 2 StDev units,
• 99.72 % within +/- 3 StDev units.

Remember the old Bell Curve that your teacher would use to adjust test scores?  The Bell Curve is simply a graphical representation of normal probability distribution.  That is a lot of mathematical jargon that boils down to the Bell Curve is showing Standard Deviation in picture form.  The greek letter sigma σ is the mathematical symbol for STDev Units.

 

So it should make sense that a statistic that is close to +2.0 StDev is unusually high, while a statistic that measures -1.95 StDev is unusually low.  Normally any measurement that results in an StDev between +2 – +3 or -2 to -3 is so unusual compared to the other data, it is called an Outlier.   This just means that data point, or outlier, is worth investigating because being able to replicate positive outliers is like statistical gold.  Maybe even platinum when applying it to something like e-commerce or an NFL quarterback skill.

Letter Grade Scale

A = 1.51+ StDev units

B = 0.51 thru 1.50 StDev

C = -0.50 thru -0.50

D = -1.50 thru -0.51

F = Below -1.51 StDev units

The grade scale simply uses the Overall QB Score StDev units for grading purposes.  A quarterback who’s overall QB Score is 1.51 or more StDev above average will grade out an A. Remember, this is the overall score StDev units, not each particular metric’s StDev units.  You can see this overall number in the last column of the chart below.

Strengths & Weaknesses Scale

For individual metrics, the following scale was used to categorize performance in the metric.  It is simply using the standard deviation ranges to quantify metric into a simple adjectives.

Real Strength = 1.01+

Strength = 0.00 thru 1.00

Weakness = 0.00 thru -1.00

Real Weakness = -1.01 or below 

You can see the value for each metric in the QB capsule. QB Score is COMPARATIVE.  This means all strengths & weaknesses are in comparison to all other quarterbacks in that statistic/metric.  Thus the scoring is essentially a Net Zero system.  For one QB to get +1.5 StDev score in a metric, another quarterback must score roughly -1.5 StDev to balance the range.

This is the huge difference between QB Score vs Passer Rating or QBR. QB Score measures the quarterbacks against each other, Passer Rating & QBR rate quarterbacks against a set standard.

Each quarterback is listed with all their metrics scores.  QB Score, Passer Rating & QBR are shown.  Each quarterback is assigned a letter grade for their overall score, and a list of strengths and weaknesses for each metric.  Remember, strengths & weaknesses are in comparison to other quarterback, essentially where they gained and lost points.

Strength & Weakness Symantics

If there is ever a metric listed as a strength or weakness that could be misleading, it is normally followed with an * and then a note at the bottom of the QB capsule explaining the possible confusion.  Simply apply the same note if you see the same potentially misleading metric in a similar spot further down.

For example, Pressure % listed as a Real Strength means the quarterback has been under the most pressure compared to all other quarterbacks, NOT that the quarterback is good at dealing with pressure.  It is there to indicate that the stats and score the quarterback have produced thus far have been under abnormally high pressure % compared to other QBs on the list.

Similarly, Pressure % listed as a Real Weakness DOES NOT mean the quarterback cannot deal with pressure.  Rather that they have produced their stats while facing far less pressure than their fellow quarterbacks thus far in 2023.

So without further ado, here are the NFL 2023 Midseason Quarterback Grades!

NFL 2023 Quarterback Grades – QBS QBR Passer Rating

Please ignore the occassional black border around a particular metric, they mean nothing.  They are just graphical artifacts that should have been deleted prior to screencapping the indivial QB metric lines.

#1 Jalen Hurts – Philadelphia Eagles – QB Score 11.07

Grade A

Real Strengths: 6

• Intended Air Yards / Attempt
• Completed Air Yards / Game
• Completed Air Yards /Attempt
• Pass On Target %
• Rushing 1st Downs
• Rush Yards/Game

Strengths: 5 

• Completion %
• Pass Yards / Game
• TD%
• 1st Down Success %
• Sack %

Weaknesses: 3

• Interception %
• Intended Air Yards / Attempt – Completed Air Yards / Attempt
• Pressure %

Real Weaknesses: 0

None

 

#2 Josh Allen – Buffalo Bills – QB Score 10.73

Grade A

Real Strengths: 8

• Completion %
• Pass Yards / Game
• Completed Air Yards / Game
• TD%
• Pass On Target %
• 1st Down Successs %
• Sack %
• Rushing 1st Downs

Strengths: 3

• Intended Air Yards / Attempt
• Completed Air Yards /Attempt
• Rush Yards/Game

Weaknesses: 3

• Interception %
• Intended Air Yards / Attempt – Completed Air Yards / Attempt
• Pressure %

Real Weaknesses: 0

None

 

#3 Kirk Cousins – Minnesota Vikings – QB Score 10.16

Grade A-

Real Strengths: 6

• Completion %
• Pass Yards / Game
• Completed Air Yards / Game
• Intended Air Yards / Attempt – Completed Air Yards / Attempt
• Pass On Target %
• TD %

Strengths: 5

• Completed Air Yards /Attempt
• Pressure %
• Interception %
• 1st Down Successs %
• Sack %

Weaknesses: 2 

• Intended Air Yards / Attempt
• Rushing 1st Downs

Real Weaknesses: 1

• Rush Yards/Game

 

#4 Lamar Jackson – Baltimore Ravens – QB Score 9.10

Grade B+

Real Strengths: 4

• Completion %
• Interception %
• Rush Yards/Game
• Rushing 1st Downs

Strengths: 6

• Pass Yards / Game
• Intended Air Yards / Attempt
• Completed Air Yards / Game
• Completed Air Yards /Attempt
• Intended Air Yards / Attempt – Completed Air Yards / Attempt
• 1st Down Successs %

Weaknesses: 3

• Pass On Target %
• TD %
• Sack %

Real Weaknesses: 1*

• Pressure %

*Note: This simply means that Lamar Jackson has not faced a high % of pressure, and therefore gets a deduction in score to balance it against QBs who face tremendous pressure.

THIS DOES NOT MEAN that Lamar Jackson is not good under pressure.  It is not measuring what a QB does under pressure, simply how often they faced it to produce the stats they have produced.

 

#5 Brock Purdy – San Francisco 49ers – QB Score 8.83

Note-  You can see an example of the meaningless black border you should ignore in the standardize cell next to Rush 1st d/g(the last metric scoring -0.15)

Grade B+

Real Strengths: 3

• Completed Air Yards /Attempt
• Intended Air Yards / Attempt – Completed Air Yards / Attempt
• 1st Down Successs %

Strengths: 8 

• Completion %
• Pass Yards / Game
• Intended Air Yards / Attempt
• Completed Air Yards / Game
• Pressure %
• TD %
• Interception %
• Sack %

Weaknesses: 3 

• Pass On Target %
• Rush Yards/Game
• Rushing 1st Downs

Real Weaknesses: 0

None

 

#6 Tua Tagovailoa – Miami Dolphins – QB Score 7.22

 

Grade B

Real Strengths: 8

• Completion %
• Pass Yards / Game
• Completed Air Yards / Game
• Completed Air Yards /Attempt
• Intended Air Yards / Attempt – Completed Air Yards / Attempt
• TD %
• 1st Down Successs %
• Sack %

Strengths: 1 

• Pass On Target %

Weaknesses: 2

• Intended Air Yards / Attempt
• Interception %

Real Weaknesses: 3

• Pressure %
• Rush Yards/Game
• Rushing 1st Downs

 

#7 Trevor Lawrence – Jacksonville Jaguars – QB Score 6.76

Grade B

Real Strengths: 4

• Pass Yards / Game
• Completed Air Yards / Game
• Intended Air Yards / Attempt – Completed Air Yards / Attempt
• Rush Yards/Game

Strengths: 7

• Completion %
• Completed Air Yards /Attempt
• Pass On Target %
• Interception %
• 1st Down Successs %
• Sack %
• Rushing 1st Downs

Weaknesses: 3 

• Intended Air Yards / Attempt
• Pressure %
• TD %

Real Weaknesses: 0

None

 

#8 Jared Goff – Detroit Lions – QB Score 6.37

Grade B

Real Strengths: 5

• Pass Yards / Game
• Completed Air Yards / Game
• Intended Air Yards / Attempt – Completed Air Yards / Attempt
• Pass On Target %
• 1st Down Successs %

Strengths: 6

• Completion %
• Completed Air Yards /Attempt
• Pressure %
• TD %
• Interception %
• Sack %

Weaknesses: 1 

• Rushing 1st Downs

Real Weaknesses: 2

• Intended Air Yards / Attempt
• Rush Yards/Game

 

#9 C.J. Stroud – Houston Texans – QB Score 6.01

Grade B

Real Strengths: 4

• Pass Yards / Game
• Completed Air Yards / Game
• Completed Air Yards /Attempt
• Interception %

Strengths: 5 

• Intended Air Yards / Attempt
• Pressure %
• TD %
• 1st Down Successs %
• Sack %

Weaknesses: 4

• Intended Air Yards / Attempt – Completed Air Yards / Attempt
• Pass On Target %
• Rush Yards/Game
• Rushing 1st Downs

Real Weaknesses: 1

• Completion %

 

#10 Patrick Mahomes – Kansas City Chiefs – QB Score 5.93

Grade B

Real Strengths: 4

• Pass Yards / Game
• Completed Air Yards /Attempt
• Pass On Target %
• Sack %

Strengths: 7 

• Completion %
• Intended Air Yards / Attempt – Completed Air Yards / Attempt
• Pressure %
• TD %
• 1st Down Successs %
• Rush Yards/Game
• Rushing 1st Downs

Weaknesses: 2

• Completed Air Yards / Game
• Interception %

Real Weaknesses: 1

• Intended Air Yards / Attempt

 

#11 Dak Prescott – Dallas Cowboys – QB Score 4.62

Grade B-

Real Strengths: 2

• Completion %
• Pass On Target %

Strengths: 5 

• Completed Air Yards /Attempt
• Intended Air Yards / Attempt – Completed Air Yards / Attempt
• TD %
• Interception %
• 1st Down Successs %

Weaknesses: 7

• Pass Yards / Game
• Intended Air Yards / Attempt
• Completed Air Yards / Game
• Pressure %
• Sack %
• Rush Yards/Game
• Rushing 1st Downs

Real Weaknesses: 0

 

#12 Justin Herbert – Los Angeles Chargers – QB Score 2.30

Grade C+

Real Strengths: 0

Strengths: 8 

• Pass Yards / Game
• Intended Air Yards / Attempt
• Completed Air Yards / Game
• Pass On Target %
• TD %
• Interception %
• 1st Down Successs %
• Sack %

Weaknesses: 6

• Completion %
• Completed Air Yards /Attempt
• Intended Air Yards / Attempt – Completed Air Yards / Attempt
• Pressure %
• Rush Yards/Game
• Rushing 1st Downs

Real Weaknesses: 0

 

#13 Sam Howell – Washington Commanders – QB Score 2.06

Grade C+

Real Strengths: 2

• Pass Yards / Game
• Completed Air Yards / Game

Strengths: 5 

• Intended Air Yards / Attempt
• Completed Air Yards /Attempt
• Pass On Target %
• Pressure %
• Rush Yards/Game

Weaknesses: 6

• Completion %
• Intended Air Yards / Attempt – Completed Air Yards / Attempt
• TD %
• Interception %
• 1st Down Successs %
• Rushing 1st Downs

Real Weaknesses: 1

• Sack %

 

#14 Russell Wilson – Denver Broncos – QB Score 0.83

Grade C

Real Strengths: 1

• TD %

Strengths: 6 

• Intended Air Yards / Attempt – Completed Air Yards / Attempt
• Pass On Target %
• Pressure %
• Interception %
• Rush Yards/Game
• Rushing 1st Downs

Weaknesses: 6

• Completion %
• Pass Yards / Game
• Intended Air Yards / Attempt
• Completed Air Yards /Attempt
• 1st Down Successs %
• Sack %

Real Weaknesses: 1

• Completed Air Yards / Game

 

#15 Baker Mayfield – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – QB Score -0.20

Grade C

Real Strengths: 1

• Sack %

Strengths: 5

• Pass Yards / Game
• Intended Air Yards / Attempt
• Pass On Target %
• TD %
• Interception %

Weaknesses: 7

• Completion %
• Completed Air Yards / Game
• Completed Air Yards /Attempt
• Pressure %
• 1st Down Successs %
• Rush Yards/Game
• Rushing 1st Downs

Real Weaknesses: 1

• Intended Air Yards / Attempt – Completed Air Yards / Attempt

 

#16 Geno Smith – Seattle Seahawks – QB Score -0.64

Grade C

Real Strengths: 2

• Intended Air Yards / Attempt – Completed Air Yards / Attempt
• Pressure %*

Strengths: 4

• Completed Air Yards / Game
• Completed Air Yards /Attempt
• 1st Down Successs %
• Sack %

Weaknesses: 6

• Completion %
• Pass Yards / Game
• Intended Air Yards / Attempt
• TD %
• Interception %
• Rush Yards/Game

Real Weaknesses: 2

• Pass On Target %
• Rushing 1st Downs

*Note – Pressure % as a Real Strength simply means the Quarterback has been facing a lot of pressure relative to their peers.

IT DOES NOT MEAN that Geno Smith is good against pressure, simply that he has faced a lot of it in comparison to other quarterbacks.

#17 Matthew Stafford – Los Angeles Rams – QB Score -1.73

Grade C

Real Strengths: 2

• Completed Air Yards / Game
• Completed Air Yards /Attempt

Strengths: 4

• Pass Yards / Game
• Intended Air Yards / Attempt
• 1st Down Successs %
• Sack %

Weaknesses: 7

• Intended Air Yards / Attempt – Completed Air Yards / Attempt
• Pass On Target %
• Pressure %
• TD %
• Interception %
• Rushing 1st Downs
• Rush Yards/Game

Real Weaknesses: 1

• Completion %

 

#18 Desmond Ritter – Atlanta Falcons – QB Score -1.78

Grade C

Real Strengths: 0

Strengths: 6

• Intended Air Yards / Attempt
• Completed Air Yards / Game
• Completed Air Yards /Attempt
• Intended Air Yards / Attempt – Completed Air Yards / Attempt
• Pressure %
• Rush Yards/Game

Weaknesses: 7

• Completion %
• Pass Yards / Game
• Pass On Target %
• Interception %
• 1st Down Successs %
• Sack %
• Rushing 1st Downs

Real Weaknesses: 1

• TD %

 

#19 Justin Fields – Chicago Bears – QB Score -1.86

Grade C

Real Strengths: 4

• Pressure %
• TD %
• Rush Yards/Game
• Rushing 1st Downs

Strengths: 1

• Intended Air Yards / Attempt – Completed Air Yards / Attempt

Weaknesses: 4

• Pass Yards / Game
• Intended Air Yards / Attempt
• Completed Air Yards /Attempt
• Pass On Target %

Real Weaknesses: 5

• Completion %
• Completed Air Yards / Game
• Interception %
• 1st Down Successs %
• Sack %

 

#20 Joshua Dobbs – Arizona/Minnesota – QB Score -2.96

Grade C-

Real Strengths: 2

• Rush Yards/Game
• Rushing 1st Downs

Strengths: 3

• Intended Air Yards / Attempt
• Interception %
• Sack %

Weaknesses: 6

• Completion %
• Completed Air Yards / Game
• Completed Air Yards /Attempt
• Pressure %
• TD%
• 1st Down Successs %

Real Weaknesses: 3

• Pass Yards / Game
• Intended Air Yards / Attempt – Completed Air Yards / Attempt
• Pass On Target %

 

#21 Joe Burrow – Cincinnati Bengals – QB Score -3.29

Grade C-

Real Strengths: 2

• Intended Air Yards / Attempt – Completed Air Yards / Attempt
• Interception %

Strengths: 3

• Pass Yards / Game
• 1st Down Successs %
• Sack %

Weaknesses: 6

• Completion %
• Completed Air Yards / Game
• Pass On Target %
• TD%
• Rush Yards/Game
• Rushing 1st Downs

Real Weaknesses: 3

• Intended Air Yards / Attempt
• Completed Air Yards /Attempt
• Pressure %

 

#22 Derek Carr – New Orleans Saints – QB Score -3.46

Grade D+

Real Strengths: 1

• Interception %

Strengths:5

• Pass Yards / Game
• Intended Air Yards / Attempt
• Completed Air Yards / Game
• 1st Down Successs %
• Sack %

Weaknesses: 4

• Completion %
• Completed Air Yards /Attempt
• Pass On Target %
• TD%

Real Weaknesses: 4

• Intended Air Yards / Attempt – Completed Air Yards / Attempt
• Pressure %
• Rush Yards/Game
• Rushing 1st Downs

 

#23 Jimmy Garappolo – Las Vegas Raiders – QB Score -4.80

Grade D+

Real Strengths: 1

• Completed Air Yards /Attempt

Strengths:5

• Intended Air Yards / Attempt
• Intended Air Yards / Attempt – Completed Air Yards / Attempt
• TD%
• 1st Down Successs %
• Sack %

Weaknesses: 6

• Completion %
• Pass Yards / Game
• Completed Air Yards / Game
• Pressure %
• Rush Yards/Game
• Rushing 1st Downs

Real Weaknesses: 2

• Pass On Target %
• Interception %

 

#24 Deshaun Watson – Cleveland Browns – QB Score -5.32

Grade D

Real Strengths: 1

• Intended Air Yards / Attempt

Strengths: 6

• Completed Air Yards /Attempt
• Pressure %
• TD%
• Interception %
• Rush Yards/Game
• Rushing 1st Downs

Weaknesses: 5

• Completed Air Yards / Game
• Sack %

Real Weaknesses: 5

• Completion %
• Pass Yards / Game
• Intended Air Yards / Attempt – Completed Air Yards / Attempt
• Pass On Target %
• 1st Down Successs %

#25 Jordan Love – Green Bay Packers – Qb Score -5.46

Grade D

Real Strengths: 1

• Intended Air Yards / Attempt

Strengths: 3

• TD%
• Sack %
• Rush Yards/Game

Weaknesses: 8

• Pass Yards / Game
• Completed Air Yards / Game
• Completed Air Yards /Attempt
• Pass On Target %
• Pressure %
• Interception %
• 1st Down Successs %
• Rushing 1st Downs

Real Weaknesses: 2

• Completion %
• Intended Air Yards / Attempt – Completed Air Yards / Attempt

 

#26 Gardner Minshew II – Indianapolis Colts – QB Score -6.52

Grade D

Real Strengths: 0

Strengths: 3

• Intended Air Yards / Attempt – Completed Air Yards / Attempt
• Interception %
• Sack %

Weaknesses: 10

• Completion %
• Pass Yards / Game
• Completed Air Yards / Game
• Completed Air Yards /Attempt
• Pass On Target %
• Pressure %
• TD%
• 1st Down Successs %
• Rush Yards/Game
• Rushing 1st Downs

Real Weaknesses: 1

• Intended Air Yards / Attempt

 

#27 Kenny Pickett – Pittsburgh Steelers – QB Score -6.77

Grade D

Real Strengths: 1

• Pressure %

Strengths: 2

• Interception %
• Sack %

Weaknesses: 7

• Pass Yards / Game
• Intended Air Yards / Attempt
• Completed Air Yards / Game
• Completed Air Yards /Attempt
• Intended Air Yards / Attempt – Completed Air Yards / Attempt
• 1st Down Successs %
• Rushing 1st Downs

Real Weaknesses: 4

• Completion %
• Pass On Target %
• TD%
• Rush Yards/Game

 

#28 Mac Jones – New England Patriots – QB Score -8.08

Grade D

Real Strengths: 0

Strengths: 1

• Sack %

Weaknesses: 11

• Completion %
• Pass Yards / Game
• Intended Air Yards / Attempt
• Intended Air Yards / Attempt – Completed Air Yards / Attempt
• Pass On Target %
• Pressure %
• TD%
• Interception %
• 1st Down Successs %
• Rush Yards/Game
• Rushing 1st Downs

Real Weaknesses: 2

• Completed Air Yards / Game
• Completed Air Yards /Attempt

 

#29 Daniel Jones – New York Giants – QB Score -9.26

Grade D-

Real Strengths: 3

• Pressure %
• Rush Yards/Game
• Rushing 1st Downs

Strengths: 1

• Completion %

Weaknesses: 2

• Intended Air Yards / Attempt – Completed Air Yards / Attempt
• Pass On Target %

Real Weaknesses: 8

• Pass Yards / Game
• Intended Air Yards / Attempt
• Completed Air Yards / Game
• Completed Air Yards /Attempt
• TD%
• Interception %
• 1st Down Successs %
• Sack %

 

#30 Zach Wilson – New York Jets – QB Score -9.43

Grade D-

Real Strengths: 1

• Pressure %

Strengths: 1

• Interception %

Weaknesses: 5

• Intended Air Yards / Attempt
• Intended Air Yards / Attempt – Completed Air Yards / Attempt
• Pass On Target %
• Rush Yards/Game
• Rushing 1st Downs

Real Weaknesses: 7

• Completion %
• Pass Yards / Game
• Completed Air Yards / Game
• Completed Air Yards /Attempt
• TD%
• 1st Down Successs %
• Sack %

 

#31 Bryce Young – Carolina Panthers – QB Score -9.64

Grade D-

Real Strengths: 0

Strengths: 1

• Intended Air Yards / Attempt – Completed Air Yards / Attempt

Weaknesses: 9

• Completion %
• Pass Yards / Game
• Pass On Target %
• Pressure %
• TD%
• Interception %
• Sack %
• Rush Yards/Game
• Rushing 1st Downs

Real Weaknesses: 4

• Intended Air Yards / Attempt
• Completed Air Yards / Game
• Completed Air Yards /Attempt
• 1st Down Successs %

 

#32 Ryan Tannehill – Tennessee Titans – Qb Score -10.80

Grade F

Real Strengths: 1

• Intended Air Yards / Attempt*

Strengths: 2

• Completed Air Yards /Attempt
• Pressure %

Weaknesses: 3

• Completed Air Yards / Game
• 1st Down Successs %
• Rush Yards/Game

Real Weaknesses: 8

• Completion %
• Pass Yards / Game
• Intended Air Yards / Attempt – Completed Air Yards / Attempt
• Pass On Target %
• TD%
• Interception %
• Sack %
• Rushing 1st Downs

*NOTE – IAY/PA is the Gunslinger metric. This means Tannehill is attempting long passes compared to other quarterbacks.  IT DOES NOT MEAN Tannehill is good at completing such passes, just that he tries them more often(too often).

As with all the ratings and analysis, feel free to chime in via the post on Reddit/r/nfl, Practicalist on Reddit, or by sending an email.  Until next week, enjoy the football and best of luck to your team.