NE at MIA
What the site's algorithm makes of it
Power ratings as stored for week 8, 2026 — the set this week's picks were made from.
It makes NE the better side by 5.2.
Members see which side it is taking this week, and by how much it disagrees with the market.
Opened NE -8.5
Now NE -7.5 — NE favoured by 1 less since first recorded
Line history: NE -8.5 (Oct 25) · NE -7 (Oct 26) · NE -7.5 ×2 (Oct 27–Oct 27)
Scoring offense
Percentile against the league. Outward is better; the inner ring is the median.
Scoring defense
Percentile against the league. Outward is better; the inner ring is the median.
Passing
Bubble size is touchdowns.
Rushing
Bubble size is touchdowns.
Drives
Longer is better. 50 is the league median.
Conversions
Longer is better. 50 is the league median.
Betting record — 2026
| Split | NE | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | SU 4-3 · ATS 3-3-1 · O/U 4-3 | SU 1-5 · ATS 2-3-1 · O/U 3-3 |
| At home | SU 3-0 · ATS 2-1 · O/U 2-1 | SU 0-2 · ATS 0-1-1 · O/U 1-1 |
| On the road | SU 1-3 · ATS 1-2-1 · O/U 2-2 | SU 1-3 · ATS 2-2 · O/U 2-2 |
| As favourite | SU 3-0 · ATS 2-1 · O/U 2-1 | |
| As underdog | SU 1-3 · ATS 1-2-1 · O/U 2-2 | SU 1-5 · ATS 2-3-1 · O/U 3-3 |
| In division | SU 2-0 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 2-0 | SU 1-0 · ATS 1-0 · O/U 1-0 |
| Out of division | SU 2-3 · ATS 2-2-1 · O/U 2-3 | SU 0-5 · ATS 1-3-1 · O/U 2-3 |
| Pick'em (±3) | SU 0-3 · ATS 0-2-1 · O/U 1-2 | SU 0-1 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 0-1 |
| Favoured by 3-7 | SU 2-0 · ATS 2-0 · O/U 1-1 | |
| Favoured by 7+ | SU 1-0 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 1-0 | |
| Dog by 3-7 | SU 1-0 · ATS 1-0 · O/U 1-0 | |
| Dog by 7+ | SU 1-0 · ATS 1-0 · O/U 1-0 | SU 0-4 · ATS 1-2-1 · O/U 2-2 |
SU = straight up · ATS = against the spread · O/U = over-under. Records count GAMES PLAYED.
Season to date — 2026
| Metric | NE | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st downs | ||
| Total | 146 | 100 |
| Passing | 82 | 45 |
| Rushing | 52 | 47 |
| From penalties | 14 | 10 |
| Efficiency | ||
| Third down | 36 of 84 | 32 of 75 |
| Fourth down | 8 of 11 | 5 of 10 |
| Volume | ||
| Total yards | 2,684 | 1,846 |
| Total plays | 429 | 336 |
| Yards per play | 6.3 | 5.5 |
| Drives | 74 | 56 |
| Passing | ||
| Passing yards | 1,830 | 1,057 |
| Completions | 145-234 | 87-168 |
| Yards per pass | 7.8 | 6.3 |
| Touchdowns | 13 | 4 |
| Interceptions | 8 | 4 |
| Sacks (yards lost) | 13 (59) | 16 (85) |
| Rushing | ||
| Rushing yards | 854 | 789 |
| Attempts | 204 | 171 |
| Yards per rush | 4.2 | 4.6 |
| Touchdowns | 5 | 7 |
| Red zone | ||
| Scores | 11 of 29 | 9 of 18 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties (yards) | 54 (423) | 43 (286) |
| Turnovers | ||
| Total | 14 | 8 |
| Fumbles lost | 6 | 4 |
| Interceptions thrown | 8 | 4 |
Full-season totals from the 2026 season, database N.
When these two have met
- 2025 wk 18 MIA 10, NE 38 NE won
- 2025 wk 2 NE 33, MIA 27 NE won
- 2024 wk 12 NE 15, MIA 34 MIA won
- 2024 wk 5 MIA 15, NE 10 MIA won
- 2023 wk 8 NE 17, MIA 31 MIA won
- 2023 wk 2 MIA 24, NE 17 MIA won
Before the game
- Biggest mismatch: NE's offense (3rd) against MIA's defense (32nd) in net yards per pass attempt.
The mismatch
- NE's offense ranks 3rd in net yards per pass attempt; MIA's defense ranks 32nd against it.
- NE's offense ranks 3rd in yards per pass attempt; MIA's defense ranks 30th against it.
- NE's offense ranks 6th in touchdown rate per pass; MIA's defense ranks 31st against it.
- MIA's offense ranks 10th in yards per completion; NE's defense ranks 18th against it.
- MIA's offense ranks 7th in expected points added rushing; NE's defense ranks 15th against it.
- MIA's offense ranks T-11th in rushing touchdowns; NE's defense ranks T-13th against it.
Form and history
- Week 8, 2026: NE (4 wins, 3 losses), on a 1-game losing streak at MIA (1 win, 5 losses), on a 1-game winning streak.
- NE: touchdown rate per pass 8.9 over the last four weeks, up from 1.2 — 32nd to 1st in the league.
- MIA: red-zone scoring rate 70.0 over the last four weeks, up from 25.0 — 29th to 2nd in the league.
- Head-to-head: MIA leads NE 10–6 in games since 2018.
Starters and rest
- Projected starters: Drake Maye for NE, Malik Willis for MIA.
- NE enters on 10 days rest to MIA's 7.