TB at CAR
What the site's algorithm makes of it
Power ratings as stored for week 7, 2026 — the set this week's picks were made from.
It makes CAR the better side by 7.1.
Members see which side it is taking this week, and by how much it disagrees with the market.
Opened CAR -3
Now CAR -3.5 — CAR favoured by 0.5 more since first recorded
Line history: CAR -3 ×2 (Oct 16–Oct 18) · CAR -3.5 ×3 (Oct 19–Oct 20)
Scoring offense
Percentile against the league. Outward is better; the inner ring is the median.
Scoring defense
Percentile against the league. Outward is better; the inner ring is the median.
Passing
Bubble size is touchdowns.
Rushing
Bubble size is touchdowns.
Drives
Longer is better. 50 is the league median.
Conversions
Longer is better. 50 is the league median.
Betting record — 2026
| Split | TB | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | SU 1-5 · ATS 1-4-1 · O/U 3-3 | SU 3-2 · ATS 3-2 · O/U 2-3 |
| At home | SU 0-4 · ATS 0-3-1 · O/U 2-2 | SU 1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 2-0 |
| On the road | SU 1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 1-1 | SU 2-1 · ATS 2-1 · O/U 0-3 |
| As favourite | SU 0-1 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 1-0 | SU 2-1 · ATS 2-1 · O/U 0-3 |
| As underdog | SU 1-4 · ATS 1-3-1 · O/U 2-3 | SU 1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 2-0 |
| In division | SU 1-0 · ATS 1-0 · O/U 0-1 | |
| Out of division | SU 1-5 · ATS 1-4-1 · O/U 3-3 | SU 2-2 · ATS 2-2 · O/U 2-2 |
| Pick'em (±3) | SU 0-3 · ATS 0-2-1 · O/U 1-2 | SU 2-2 · ATS 2-2 · O/U 1-3 |
| Favoured by 7+ | SU 0-1 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 1-0 | |
| Dog by 3-7 | SU 0-1 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 1-0 | SU 1-0 · ATS 1-0 · O/U 1-0 |
| Dog by 7+ | SU 1-0 · ATS 1-0 · O/U 0-1 |
SU = straight up · ATS = against the spread · O/U = over-under. Records count GAMES PLAYED.
Season to date — 2026
| Metric | TB | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 1st downs | ||
| Total | 105 | 115 |
| Passing | 56 | 75 |
| Rushing | 42 | 33 |
| From penalties | 11 | 10 |
| Efficiency | ||
| Third down | 33 of 87 | 26 of 67 |
| Fourth down | 3 of 9 | 4 of 9 |
| Volume | ||
| Total yards | 1,883 | 2,093 |
| Total plays | 374 | 338 |
| Yards per play | 5.0 | 6.2 |
| Drives | 69 | 58 |
| Passing | ||
| Passing yards | 1,116 | 1,549 |
| Completions | 121-216 | 121-215 |
| Yards per pass | 5.2 | 7.2 |
| Touchdowns | 5 | 11 |
| Interceptions | 7 | 2 |
| Sacks (yards lost) | 22 (127) | 12 (71) |
| Rushing | ||
| Rushing yards | 767 | 544 |
| Attempts | 161 | 129 |
| Yards per rush | 4.8 | 4.2 |
| Touchdowns | 5 | 5 |
| Red zone | ||
| Scores | 9 of 21 | 14 of 24 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties (yards) | 44 (329) | 48 (419) |
| Turnovers | ||
| Total | 11 | 3 |
| Fumbles lost | 4 | 1 |
| Interceptions thrown | 7 | 2 |
Full-season totals from the 2026 season, database N.
When these two have met
- 2025 wk 18 CAR 14, TB 16 TB won
- 2025 wk 16 TB 20, CAR 23 CAR won
- 2024 wk 17 CAR 14, TB 48 TB won
- 2024 wk 13 TB 26, CAR 23 TB won
- 2023 wk 18 TB 9, CAR 0 TB won
- 2023 wk 13 CAR 18, TB 21 TB won
Before the game
- Biggest mismatch: TB's offense (6th) against CAR's defense (32nd) in yards per carry.
The mismatch
- TB's offense ranks 6th in yards per carry; CAR's defense ranks 32nd against it.
- CAR's offense ranks T-3rd in fumbles lost; TB's defense ranks T-22nd against it.
- TB's offense ranks 6th in expected points added rushing; CAR's defense ranks 25th against it.
- CAR's offense ranks 3rd in average drive start (yards to go); TB's defense ranks 21st against it.
- TB's offense ranks T-13th in rushing touchdowns; CAR's defense ranks T-28th against it.
- CAR's offense ranks 21st in yards after catch; TB's defense ranks 32nd against it.
Form and history
- Week 7, 2026: TB (1 win, 5 losses), on a 1-game losing streak at CAR (3 wins, 2 losses), on a 2-game winning streak.
- TB: average drive start (yards to go) 231.9 over the last four weeks, up from 84.6 — 2nd to 31st in the league.
- CAR: takeaway rate (share of opponent drives) 0.0 over the last four weeks, down from 23.1 — 1st to 32nd in the league.
- Head-to-head: TB leads CAR 12–4 in games since 2018.
Starters and rest
- Projected starters: Jalon Daniels for TB, Bryce Young for CAR.