PIT at TB
What the site's algorithm makes of it
Power ratings as stored for week 6, 2026 — the set this week's picks were made from.
It makes TB the better side by 1.6.
Members see which side it is taking this week, and by how much it disagrees with the market.
Opened PIT -2.5
Now PIT -2.5
Line history: PIT -2.5 ×2 (Oct 9–Oct 10) · PIT -3 ×3 (Oct 12–Oct 13) · PIT -2.5 ×18 (Oct 16–Nov 2)
Scoring offense
Percentile against the league. Outward is better; the inner ring is the median.
Scoring defense
Percentile against the league. Outward is better; the inner ring is the median.
Passing
Bubble size is touchdowns.
Rushing
Bubble size is touchdowns.
Drives
Longer is better. 50 is the league median.
Conversions
Longer is better. 50 is the league median.
Betting record — 2026
| Split | PIT | TB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | SU 6-2 · ATS 6-2 · O/U 4-4 | SU 3-5 · ATS 3-4-1 · O/U 4-4 |
| At home | SU 4-0 · ATS 4-0 · O/U 2-2 | SU 1-4 · ATS 1-3-1 · O/U 2-3 |
| On the road | SU 2-2 · ATS 2-2 · O/U 2-2 | SU 2-1 · ATS 2-1 · O/U 2-1 |
| As favourite | SU 5-1 · ATS 5-1 · O/U 3-3 | SU 1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 1-1 |
| As underdog | SU 1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 1-1 | SU 2-4 · ATS 2-3-1 · O/U 3-3 |
| In division | SU 2-1 · ATS 2-1 · O/U 2-1 | SU 2-0 · ATS 2-0 · O/U 1-1 |
| Out of division | SU 4-1 · ATS 4-1 · O/U 2-3 | SU 1-5 · ATS 1-4-1 · O/U 3-3 |
| Pick'em (±3) | SU 3-1 · ATS 3-1 · O/U 3-1 | SU 2-3 · ATS 2-2-1 · O/U 2-3 |
| Favoured by 3-7 | SU 2-0 · ATS 2-0 · O/U 0-2 | |
| Favoured by 7+ | SU 0-1 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 1-0 | |
| Dog by 3-7 | SU 1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 1-1 | SU 0-1 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 1-0 |
| Dog by 7+ | SU 1-0 · ATS 1-0 · O/U 0-1 |
SU = straight up · ATS = against the spread · O/U = over-under. Records count GAMES PLAYED.
Season to date — 2026
| Metric | PIT | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 1st downs | ||
| Total | 155 | 142 |
| Passing | 83 | 59 |
| Rushing | 58 | 74 |
| From penalties | 11 | 12 |
| Efficiency | ||
| Third down | 40 of 102 | 44 of 112 |
| Fourth down | 3 of 6 | 3 of 10 |
| Volume | ||
| Total yards | 2,814 | 2,529 |
| Total plays | 494 | 491 |
| Yards per play | 5.7 | 5.2 |
| Drives | 90 | 91 |
| Passing | ||
| Passing yards | 1,871 | 1,180 |
| Completions | 175-314 | 128-231 |
| Yards per pass | 6.0 | 5.1 |
| Touchdowns | 13 | 6 |
| Interceptions | 6 | 7 |
| Sacks (yards lost) | 23 (187) | 23 (129) |
| Rushing | ||
| Rushing yards | 943 | 1,349 |
| Attempts | 194 | 266 |
| Yards per rush | 4.9 | 5.1 |
| Touchdowns | 4 | 9 |
| Red zone | ||
| Scores | 12 of 30 | 13 of 30 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties (yards) | 47 (414) | 55 (404) |
| Turnovers | ||
| Total | 8 | 12 |
| Fumbles lost | 3 | 6 |
| Interceptions thrown | 6 | 7 |
Full-season totals from the 2026 season, database N.
When these two have met
- 2026 wk 6 PIT 26, TB 19 PIT won
- 2022 wk 6 TB 18, PIT 20 PIT won
- 2018 wk 3 PIT 30, TB 27 PIT won
Before the game
- Biggest mismatch: PIT's offense (1st) against TB's defense (31st) in yards after catch.
The mismatch
- PIT's offense ranks 1st in yards after catch; TB's defense ranks 31st against it.
- TB's offense ranks 6th in yards after catch; PIT's defense ranks 22nd against it.
- TB's offense ranks 5th in yards per carry; PIT's defense ranks 17th against it.
- TB's offense ranks 11th in rushing first downs; PIT's defense ranks 22nd against it.
- PIT's offense ranks T-14th in fourth-down conversion rate; TB's defense ranks T-22nd against it.
- PIT's offense ranks 21st in sack rate (taken); TB's defense ranks 28th against it.
Form and history
- Week 6, 2026: PIT (3 wins, 2 losses), on a 1-game winning streak at TB (1 win, 4 losses), on a 1-game winning streak.
- PIT: expected points added rushing 11.3 over the last four weeks, up from -4.5 — 30th to 2nd in the league.
- TB: fumbles lost 0.0 over the last four weeks, down from 4.0 — 32nd to 4th in the league.
- Head-to-head: PIT leads TB 2–0 in games since 2018.
Starters and rest
- Projected starters: Aaron Rodgers for PIT, Jalon Daniels for TB.
- TB enters on 10 days rest to PIT's 7.
Final — the recap is on this game's result page.