HOU at JAX
What the site's algorithm makes of it
Power ratings as stored for week 6, 2026 — the set this week's picks were made from.
It makes JAX the better side by 6.4.
Members see which side it is taking this week, and by how much it disagrees with the market.
Opened JAX -3
Now JAX -2.5 — JAX favoured by 0.5 less since first recorded
Line history: JAX -3 ×5 (Oct 9–Oct 13) · JAX -2.5 ×18 (Oct 16–Nov 2)
Scoring offense
Percentile against the league. Outward is better; the inner ring is the median.
Scoring defense
Percentile against the league. Outward is better; the inner ring is the median.
Passing
Bubble size is touchdowns.
Rushing
Bubble size is touchdowns.
Drives
Longer is better. 50 is the league median.
Conversions
Longer is better. 50 is the league median.
Betting record — 2026
| Split | HOU | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | SU 2-5 · ATS 2-5 · O/U 4-3 | SU 5-2 · ATS 4-3 · O/U 3-4 |
| At home | SU 0-4 · ATS 0-4 · O/U 3-1 | SU 4-1 · ATS 3-2 · O/U 3-2 |
| On the road | SU 2-1 · ATS 2-1 · O/U 1-2 | SU 1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 0-2 |
| As favourite | SU 1-4 · ATS 1-4 · O/U 2-3 | SU 4-1 · ATS 3-2 · O/U 3-2 |
| As underdog | SU 1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 2-0 | SU 1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 0-2 |
| In division | SU 2-1 · ATS 2-1 · O/U 1-2 | SU 1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 2-0 |
| Out of division | SU 0-4 · ATS 0-4 · O/U 3-1 | SU 4-1 · ATS 3-2 · O/U 1-4 |
| Pick'em (±3) | SU 1-4 · ATS 1-4 · O/U 3-2 | SU 2-2 · ATS 2-2 · O/U 1-3 |
| Favoured by 3-7 | SU 1-0 · ATS 1-0 · O/U 0-1 | |
| Favoured by 7+ | SU 0-1 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 1-0 | SU 3-0 · ATS 2-1 · O/U 2-1 |
SU = straight up · ATS = against the spread · O/U = over-under. Records count GAMES PLAYED.
Season to date — 2026
| Metric | HOU | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| 1st downs | ||
| Total | 135 | 143 |
| Passing | 83 | 82 |
| Rushing | 37 | 53 |
| From penalties | 10 | 15 |
| Efficiency | ||
| Third down | 33 of 88 | 41 of 84 |
| Fourth down | 3 of 8 | 2 of 5 |
| Volume | ||
| Total yards | 2,460 | 2,558 |
| Total plays | 425 | 408 |
| Yards per play | 5.8 | 6.3 |
| Drives | 75 | 71 |
| Passing | ||
| Passing yards | 1,867 | 1,698 |
| Completions | 160-264 | 131-215 |
| Yards per pass | 7.1 | 7.9 |
| Touchdowns | 11 | 17 |
| Interceptions | 1 | 4 |
| Sacks (yards lost) | 15 (93) | 13 (106) |
| Rushing | ||
| Rushing yards | 593 | 860 |
| Attempts | 167 | 200 |
| Yards per rush | 3.6 | 4.3 |
| Touchdowns | 6 | 6 |
| Red zone | ||
| Scores | 15 of 28 | 13 of 30 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties (yards) | 58 (508) | 54 (455) |
| Turnovers | ||
| Total | 3 | 5 |
| Fumbles lost | 2 | 1 |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 4 |
Full-season totals from the 2026 season, database N.
When these two have met
- 2026 wk 6 HOU 34, JAX 31 HOU won
- 2025 wk 10 JAX 29, HOU 36 HOU won
- 2025 wk 3 HOU 10, JAX 17 JAX won
- 2024 wk 13 HOU 23, JAX 20 HOU won
- 2024 wk 4 JAX 20, HOU 24 HOU won
- 2023 wk 12 JAX 24, HOU 21 JAX won
Before the game
- Biggest mismatch: JAX's offense (7th) against HOU's defense (27th) in completion rate.
The mismatch
- JAX's offense ranks 7th in completion rate; HOU's defense ranks 27th against it.
- JAX's offense ranks 7th in share of drives ending in a turnover; HOU's defense ranks T-24th against it.
- HOU's offense ranks 11th in yards per completion; JAX's defense ranks 28th against it.
- HOU's offense ranks T-10th in passing first downs; JAX's defense ranks 27th against it.
- JAX's offense ranks T-8th in share of drives ending in a score; HOU's defense ranks T-23rd against it.
- HOU's offense ranks 14th in yards per drive; JAX's defense ranks 29th against it.
Form and history
- Week 6, 2026: HOU (1 win, 4 losses), on a 1-game winning streak at JAX (4 wins, 1 loss), on a 3-game winning streak.
- HOU: fourth-down conversion rate 0.0 over the last four weeks, down from 100.0 — 5th to 32nd in the league.
- JAX: sack rate 3.0 over the last four weeks, down from 15.6 — 1st to 30th in the league.
- Head-to-head: HOU leads JAX 13–3 in games since 2018.
Starters and rest
- Projected starters: C.J. Stroud for HOU, Trevor Lawrence for JAX.
Final — the recap is on this game's result page.