BAL at CLE
What the site's algorithm makes of it
Power ratings as stored for week 6, 2026 — the set this week's picks were made from.
It makes BAL the better side by 4.3.
Members see which side it is taking this week, and by how much it disagrees with the market.
Opened BAL -3
Now BAL -3
Line history: BAL -3 ×2 (Oct 9–Oct 10) · BAL -3.5 (Oct 12) · BAL -4.5 ×2 (Oct 13–Oct 13) · BAL -3.5 ×3 (Oct 16–Oct 16) · BAL -3 ×15 (Oct 18–Nov 2)
Scoring offense
Percentile against the league. Outward is better; the inner ring is the median.
Scoring defense
Percentile against the league. Outward is better; the inner ring is the median.
Passing
Bubble size is touchdowns.
Rushing
Bubble size is touchdowns.
Drives
Longer is better. 50 is the league median.
Conversions
Longer is better. 50 is the league median.
Betting record — 2026
| Split | BAL | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | SU 4-4 · ATS 2-5-1 · O/U 4-4 | SU 5-3 · ATS 5-3 · O/U 4-4 |
| At home | SU 1-2 · ATS 0-3 · O/U 1-2 | SU 3-0 · ATS 3-0 · O/U 1-2 |
| On the road | SU 3-2 · ATS 2-2-1 · O/U 3-2 | SU 2-3 · ATS 2-3 · O/U 3-2 |
| As favourite | SU 3-2 · ATS 1-3-1 · O/U 2-3 | SU 1-0 · ATS 1-0 · O/U 1-0 |
| As underdog | SU 1-2 · ATS 1-2 · O/U 2-1 | SU 4-3 · ATS 4-3 · O/U 3-4 |
| In division | SU 0-2 · ATS 0-2 · O/U 1-1 | SU 2-1 · ATS 2-1 · O/U 1-2 |
| Out of division | SU 4-2 · ATS 2-3-1 · O/U 3-3 | SU 3-2 · ATS 3-2 · O/U 3-2 |
| Pick'em (±3) | SU 2-3 · ATS 1-3-1 · O/U 3-2 | SU 4-1 · ATS 4-1 · O/U 2-3 |
| Favoured by 7+ | SU 1-1 · ATS 0-2 · O/U 0-2 | |
| Dog by 3-7 | SU 1-0 · ATS 1-0 · O/U 1-0 | SU 0-1 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 0-1 |
| Dog by 7+ | SU 1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 2-0 |
SU = straight up · ATS = against the spread · O/U = over-under. Records count GAMES PLAYED.
Season to date — 2026
| Metric | BAL | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 1st downs | ||
| Total | 146 | 137 |
| Passing | 87 | 85 |
| Rushing | 53 | 40 |
| From penalties | 18 | 15 |
| Efficiency | ||
| Third down | 38 of 95 | 33 of 102 |
| Fourth down | 2 of 8 | 4 of 11 |
| Volume | ||
| Total yards | 2,853 | 2,589 |
| Total plays | 474 | 478 |
| Yards per play | 6.0 | 5.4 |
| Drives | 90 | 94 |
| Passing | ||
| Passing yards | 1,785 | 1,808 |
| Completions | 154-251 | 166-286 |
| Yards per pass | 7.1 | 6.3 |
| Touchdowns | 10 | 7 |
| Interceptions | 3 | 3 |
| Sacks (yards lost) | 22 (144) | 33 (174) |
| Rushing | ||
| Rushing yards | 1,068 | 781 |
| Attempts | 232 | 199 |
| Yards per rush | 4.6 | 3.9 |
| Touchdowns | 10 | 6 |
| Red zone | ||
| Scores | 16 of 31 | 9 of 26 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties (yards) | 67 (493) | 72 (505) |
| Turnovers | ||
| Total | 8 | 10 |
| Fumbles lost | 5 | 8 |
| Interceptions thrown | 3 | 3 |
Full-season totals from the 2026 season, database N.
When these two have met
- 2026 wk 6 BAL 10, CLE 13 CLE won
- 2025 wk 11 BAL 23, CLE 16 BAL won
- 2025 wk 2 CLE 17, BAL 41 BAL won
- 2024 wk 18 CLE 10, BAL 35 BAL won
- 2024 wk 8 BAL 24, CLE 29 CLE won
- 2023 wk 10 CLE 33, BAL 31 CLE won
Before the game
- Biggest mismatch: BAL's offense (3rd) against CLE's defense (28th) in expected points added rushing.
The mismatch
- BAL's offense ranks 3rd in expected points added rushing; CLE's defense ranks 28th against it.
- BAL's offense ranks T-3rd in rushing first downs; CLE's defense ranks T-23rd against it.
- BAL's offense ranks 4th in yards per carry; CLE's defense ranks 23rd against it.
- CLE's offense ranks 7th in interception rate (thrown); BAL's defense ranks 20th against it.
- CLE's offense ranks 19th in expected points added passing; BAL's defense ranks 21st against it.
- CLE's offense ranks 18th in completion rate; BAL's defense ranks 20th against it.
Form and history
- Week 6, 2026: BAL (4 wins, 1 loss), on a 3-game winning streak at CLE (3 wins, 2 losses), on a 1-game losing streak.
- BAL: red-zone scoring rate allowed 47.1 over the last four weeks, down from 100.0 — 29th to 4th in the league.
- CLE: expected points added by the pass defense 30.9 over the last four weeks, up from -19.0 — 31st to 2nd in the league.
- Head-to-head: BAL leads CLE 10–6 in games since 2018.
Starters and rest
- Projected starters: Lamar Jackson for BAL, Deshaun Watson for CLE.
Final — the recap is on this game's result page.