MIN at TB
What the site's algorithm makes of it
Power ratings as stored for week 3, 2026 — the set this week's picks were made from.
It makes TB the better side by 0.8.
Members see which side it is taking this week, and by how much it disagrees with the market.
Opened MIN -1.5
Now MIN -1.5
Line history: MIN -1.5 ×35 (Sep 22–Oct 13)
Scoring offense
Percentile against the league. Outward is better; the inner ring is the median.
Scoring defense
Percentile against the league. Outward is better; the inner ring is the median.
Passing
Bubble size is touchdowns.
Rushing
Bubble size is touchdowns.
Drives
Longer is better. 50 is the league median.
Conversions
Longer is better. 50 is the league median.
Betting record — 2026
| Split | MIN | TB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | SU 5-0 · ATS 4-1 · O/U 1-4 | SU 1-4 · ATS 1-3-1 · O/U 2-3 |
| At home | SU 2-0 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 1-1 | SU 0-3 · ATS 0-2-1 · O/U 1-2 |
| On the road | SU 3-0 · ATS 3-0 · O/U 0-3 | SU 1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 1-1 |
| As favourite | SU 4-0 · ATS 3-1 · O/U 1-3 | SU 0-1 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 1-0 |
| As underdog | SU 1-0 · ATS 1-0 · O/U 0-1 | SU 1-3 · ATS 1-2-1 · O/U 1-3 |
| In division | SU 2-0 · ATS 2-0 · O/U 1-1 | |
| Out of division | SU 3-0 · ATS 2-1 · O/U 0-3 | SU 1-4 · ATS 1-3-1 · O/U 2-3 |
| Pick'em (±3) | SU 3-0 · ATS 3-0 · O/U 1-2 | SU 0-2 · ATS 0-1-1 · O/U 0-2 |
| Favoured by 7+ | SU 1-0 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 0-1 | SU 0-1 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 1-0 |
| Dog by 3-7 | SU 1-0 · ATS 1-0 · O/U 0-1 | SU 0-1 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 1-0 |
| Dog by 7+ | SU 1-0 · ATS 1-0 · O/U 0-1 |
SU = straight up · ATS = against the spread · O/U = over-under. Records count GAMES PLAYED.
Season to date — 2026
| Metric | MIN | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 1st downs | ||
| Total | 76 | 88 |
| Passing | 42 | 47 |
| Rushing | 29 | 35 |
| From penalties | 4 | 9 |
| Efficiency | ||
| Third down | 31 of 76 | 27 of 68 |
| Fourth down | 3 of 3 | 2 of 7 |
| Volume | ||
| Total yards | 1,518 | 1,617 |
| Total plays | 298 | 301 |
| Yards per play | 5.1 | 5.4 |
| Drives | 56 | 55 |
| Passing | ||
| Passing yards | 938 | 952 |
| Completions | 92-156 | 99-168 |
| Yards per pass | 6.0 | 5.7 |
| Touchdowns | 5 | 4 |
| Interceptions | 2 | 5 |
| Sacks (yards lost) | 15 (103) | 17 (85) |
| Rushing | ||
| Rushing yards | 580 | 665 |
| Attempts | 152 | 136 |
| Yards per rush | 3.8 | 4.9 |
| Touchdowns | 3 | 5 |
| Red zone | ||
| Scores | 6 of 15 | 8 of 19 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties (yards) | 30 (250) | 40 (291) |
| Turnovers | ||
| Total | 4 | 9 |
| Fumbles lost | 2 | 4 |
| Interceptions thrown | 2 | 5 |
Full-season totals from the 2026 season, database N.
When these two have met
- 2026 wk 3 MIN 23, TB 16 MIN won
- 2023 wk 1 TB 20, MIN 17 TB won
- 2020 wk 14 MIN 14, TB 26 TB won
- 2017 wk 3 TB 17, MIN 34 MIN won
Before the game
- Biggest mismatch: TB's offense (T-6th) against MIN's defense (29th) in yards after catch.
The mismatch
- TB's offense ranks T-6th in yards after catch; MIN's defense ranks 29th against it.
- MIN's offense ranks T-1st in fumbles lost; TB's defense ranks T-21st against it.
- MIN's offense ranks 6th in share of drives ending in a turnover; TB's defense ranks T-21st against it.
- TB's offense ranks 2nd in average drive start (yards to go); MIN's defense ranks 16th against it.
- MIN's offense ranks 14th in share of drives ending in a score; TB's defense ranks T-26th against it.
- TB's offense ranks 5th in yards per carry; MIN's defense ranks 12th against it.
Form and history
- Week 3, 2026: MIN (2 wins, 0 losses), on a 2-game winning streak at TB (0 wins, 2 losses), on a 2-game losing streak.
- Head-to-head: TB leads MIN 2–0 in games since 2020.
Starters and rest
- Projected starters: Kyler Murray for MIN, Baker Mayfield for TB.
Final — the recap is on this game's result page.