KC at MIA
What the site's algorithm makes of it
Power ratings as stored for week 3, 2026 — the set this week's picks were made from.
It makes KC the better side by 0.7.
Members see which side it is taking this week, and by how much it disagrees with the market.
Opened KC -11.5
Now KC -10 — KC favoured by 1.5 less since first recorded
Line history: KC -11.5 (Sep 22) · KC -10.5 ×6 (Sep 25–Sep 25) · KC -10 ×38 (Sep 28–Nov 2)
Scoring offense
Percentile against the league. Outward is better; the inner ring is the median.
Scoring defense
Percentile against the league. Outward is better; the inner ring is the median.
Passing
Bubble size is touchdowns.
Rushing
Bubble size is touchdowns.
Drives
Longer is better. 50 is the league median.
Conversions
Longer is better. 50 is the league median.
Betting record — 2026
| Split | KC | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | SU 5-2 · ATS 3-4 · O/U 3-4 | SU 1-6 · ATS 3-3-1 · O/U 4-3 |
| At home | SU 3-0 · ATS 2-1 · O/U 1-2 | SU 0-3 · ATS 1-1-1 · O/U 2-1 |
| On the road | SU 2-2 · ATS 1-3 · O/U 2-2 | SU 1-3 · ATS 2-2 · O/U 2-2 |
| As favourite | SU 5-0 · ATS 3-2 · O/U 2-3 | |
| As underdog | SU 0-2 · ATS 0-2 · O/U 1-1 | SU 1-6 · ATS 3-3-1 · O/U 4-3 |
| In division | SU 3-1 · ATS 2-2 · O/U 2-2 | SU 1-1 · ATS 2-0 · O/U 2-0 |
| Out of division | SU 2-1 · ATS 1-2 · O/U 1-2 | SU 0-5 · ATS 1-3-1 · O/U 2-3 |
| Pick'em (±3) | SU 1-2 · ATS 1-2 · O/U 1-2 | SU 0-1 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 0-1 |
| Favoured by 3-7 | SU 2-0 · ATS 0-2 · O/U 2-0 | |
| Favoured by 7+ | SU 2-0 · ATS 2-0 · O/U 0-2 | |
| Dog by 3-7 | SU 1-0 · ATS 1-0 · O/U 1-0 | |
| Dog by 7+ | SU 0-5 · ATS 2-2-1 · O/U 3-2 |
SU = straight up · ATS = against the spread · O/U = over-under. Records count GAMES PLAYED.
Season to date — 2026
| Metric | KC | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st downs | ||
| Total | 137 | 116 |
| Passing | 78 | 56 |
| Rushing | 53 | 52 |
| From penalties | 20 | 11 |
| Efficiency | ||
| Third down | 34 of 84 | 39 of 89 |
| Fourth down | 7 of 12 | 5 of 10 |
| Volume | ||
| Total yards | 2,734 | 2,131 |
| Total plays | 421 | 397 |
| Yards per play | 6.5 | 5.4 |
| Drives | 74 | 66 |
| Passing | ||
| Passing yards | 1,795 | 1,268 |
| Completions | 154-242 | 108-206 |
| Yards per pass | 7.4 | 6.2 |
| Touchdowns | 12 | 6 |
| Interceptions | 4 | 5 |
| Sacks (yards lost) | 9 (52) | 21 (101) |
| Rushing | ||
| Rushing yards | 939 | 863 |
| Attempts | 185 | 194 |
| Yards per rush | 5.1 | 4.4 |
| Touchdowns | 7 | 7 |
| Red zone | ||
| Scores | 15 of 30 | 10 of 21 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties (yards) | 52 (464) | 49 (336) |
| Turnovers | ||
| Total | 4 | 9 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 4 |
| Interceptions thrown | 4 | 5 |
Full-season totals from the 2026 season, database N.
When these two have met
- 2026 wk 3 KC 24, MIA 10 KC won
- 2023 wk 9 MIA 14, KC 21 KC won
- 2020 wk 14 KC 33, MIA 27 KC won
- 2017 wk 16 MIA 13, KC 29 KC won
Before the game
- Biggest mismatch: KC's offense (5th) against MIA's defense (32nd) in points per drive.
The mismatch
- KC's offense ranks 5th in points per drive; MIA's defense ranks 32nd against it.
- KC's offense ranks 4th in share of drives ending in a score; MIA's defense ranks 29th against it.
- KC's offense ranks 8th in net yards per pass attempt; MIA's defense ranks 32nd against it.
- MIA's offense ranks 9th in average drive start (yards to go); KC's defense ranks 24th against it.
- MIA's offense ranks 18th in yards after catch; KC's defense ranks 19th against it.
- MIA's offense ranks 5th in yards per completion; KC's defense ranks T-5th against it.
Form and history
- Week 3, 2026: KC (2 wins, 0 losses), on a 2-game winning streak at MIA (0 wins, 2 losses), on a 2-game losing streak.
- Head-to-head: KC leads MIA 2–0 in games since 2020.
Starters and rest
- Projected starters: Patrick Mahomes for KC, Malik Willis for MIA.
Final — the recap is on this game's result page.