HOU at CLE
What the site's algorithm makes of it
Power ratings as stored for week 10, 2026 — the set this week's picks were made from.
It makes HOU the better side by 1.6.
Members see which side it is taking this week, and by how much it disagrees with the market.
Opened HOU -4.5
Now HOU -4.5
Line history: HOU -4.5 ×4 (Nov 6–Nov 10)
Scoring offense
Percentile against the league. Outward is better; the inner ring is the median.
Scoring defense
Percentile against the league. Outward is better; the inner ring is the median.
Passing
Bubble size is touchdowns.
Rushing
Bubble size is touchdowns.
Drives
Longer is better. 50 is the league median.
Conversions
Longer is better. 50 is the league median.
Betting record — 2026
| Split | HOU | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | SU 3-5 · ATS 3-5 · O/U 5-3 | SU 5-4 · ATS 6-3 · O/U 5-4 |
| At home | SU 0-4 · ATS 0-4 · O/U 3-1 | SU 3-0 · ATS 3-0 · O/U 1-2 |
| On the road | SU 3-1 · ATS 3-1 · O/U 2-2 | SU 2-4 · ATS 3-3 · O/U 4-2 |
| As favourite | SU 2-4 · ATS 2-4 · O/U 3-3 | SU 1-0 · ATS 1-0 · O/U 1-0 |
| As underdog | SU 1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 2-0 | SU 4-4 · ATS 5-3 · O/U 4-4 |
| In division | SU 2-1 · ATS 2-1 · O/U 1-2 | SU 2-1 · ATS 2-1 · O/U 1-2 |
| Out of division | SU 1-4 · ATS 1-4 · O/U 4-1 | SU 3-3 · ATS 4-2 · O/U 4-2 |
| Pick'em (±3) | SU 1-4 · ATS 1-4 · O/U 3-2 | SU 4-1 · ATS 4-1 · O/U 2-3 |
| Favoured by 3-7 | SU 2-0 · ATS 2-0 · O/U 1-1 | |
| Favoured by 7+ | SU 0-1 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 1-0 | |
| Dog by 3-7 | SU 0-2 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 1-1 | |
| Dog by 7+ | SU 1-1 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 2-0 |
SU = straight up · ATS = against the spread · O/U = over-under. Records count GAMES PLAYED.
Season to date — 2026
| Metric | HOU | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 1st downs | ||
| Total | 157 | 152 |
| Passing | 98 | 95 |
| Rushing | 43 | 44 |
| From penalties | 12 | 17 |
| Efficiency | ||
| Third down | 41 of 102 | 41 of 119 |
| Fourth down | 3 of 8 | 4 of 13 |
| Volume | ||
| Total yards | 2,955 | 2,981 |
| Total plays | 489 | 547 |
| Yards per play | 6.0 | 5.4 |
| Drives | 88 | 107 |
| Passing | ||
| Passing yards | 2,258 | 2,105 |
| Completions | 182-302 | 185-323 |
| Yards per pass | 7.5 | 6.5 |
| Touchdowns | 16 | 9 |
| Interceptions | 2 | 3 |
| Sacks (yards lost) | 16 (103) | 38 (211) |
| Rushing | ||
| Rushing yards | 697 | 876 |
| Attempts | 195 | 233 |
| Yards per rush | 3.6 | 3.8 |
| Touchdowns | 6 | 6 |
| Red zone | ||
| Scores | 18 of 35 | 9 of 30 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties (yards) | 64 (544) | 82 (563) |
| Turnovers | ||
| Total | 4 | 10 |
| Fumbles lost | 2 | 9 |
| Interceptions thrown | 2 | 3 |
Full-season totals from the 2026 season, database N.
When these two have met
- 2023 wk 16 CLE 36, HOU 22 CLE won
- 2022 wk 13 CLE 27, HOU 14 CLE won
- 2021 wk 2 HOU 21, CLE 31 CLE won
- 2020 wk 10 HOU 7, CLE 10 CLE won
- 2018 wk 13 CLE 13, HOU 29 HOU won
- 2017 wk 6 CLE 17, HOU 33 HOU won
Before the game
- Biggest mismatch: CLE's offense (4th) against HOU's defense (25th) in interception rate (thrown).
The mismatch
- CLE's offense ranks 4th in interception rate (thrown); HOU's defense ranks 25th against it.
- HOU's offense ranks 1st in share of drives ending in a turnover; CLE's defense ranks 18th against it.
- CLE's offense ranks 11th in share of drives ending in a turnover; HOU's defense ranks 26th against it.
- HOU's offense ranks 2nd in interception rate (thrown); CLE's defense ranks 17th against it.
- HOU's offense ranks T-1st in fumbles lost; CLE's defense ranks T-12th against it.
- CLE's offense ranks 3rd in yards after catch; HOU's defense ranks 14th against it.
Form and history
- Week 10, 2026: HOU (3 wins, 5 losses), on a 1-game winning streak at CLE (5 wins, 4 losses), on a 2-game losing streak.
- HOU: fourth-down conversion rate 100.0 over the last four weeks, up from 28.6 — 28th to 3rd in the league.
- CLE: rushing touchdowns allowed 7.0 over the last four weeks, up from 1.0 — 1st to 32nd in the league.
- Head-to-head: CLE leads HOU 4–1 in games since 2018.
Starters and rest
- Projected starters: C.J. Stroud for HOU, Deshaun Watson for CLE.