2025 NFL Draft – 1st Round Trades For Every Team

Time to have some fun and create a bizarro NFL world where every team is involved in a first round trade offer.  To do this we are going to use some things from the 2025 NFL Draft – Consensus Draft Picks – Prospects & Top 50 post.

Check out every NFL Team’s Draft Equity:  2025 NFL Draft – Team Draft Equity – Which Team Has The Most Draft Firepower

First we will use the draft Top 50 board to determine where the first player at each position will be drafted.  Cam Ward is projected to go #1, so first QB is position #1.  A team wishing to grab a QB will make an offer for the #1 draft pick.  Abdul Carter is projected to go #2, therefore any team wanting to trade up for an EDGE player would try to trade up to pick #2.

Basically the chart below was used to determine when the first of each position is going to be selected.  We are using the Combined Rank columns which are second from right.

2025 NFL Draft Top 50 Prospects Big Board

To try to stay within some lines of reality, teams in the bottom half of the draft would need to trade away most of their early picks this year and maybe a 1st or 2nd next year to even get into the top 5.  In cases where the price appears too high, a team will make an offer to trade up to the slot for it’s second need.

For example, the Eagles would like an EDGE player but trading up to #2 is likely too costly.  Thus the chart shows the Eagles making an offer to trade up for a Safety projected to go with the 24th pick to the Vikings.

2025 NFL Draft Trade Chart (Johnson-Hill)

We will use the Johnson-Hill Trade Chart for point values for every draft pick.  You can see where each team is selecting in the 2025 NFL Draft and the value of the pick.  Blue picks were traded prior to the 2025 offseason.  Pink picks were picks traded during the 2025 off season free agency period and up to the draft.  The bottom shows the value of future picks.

2025 NFL Draft – 1st Round Trades For Every Team

1st Round Trade Chart Summary

The chart above summarized all the trades.  Working left to right on the chart:

• Team
• Pick #
• Team Needs (left to right in terms to most to least need)
• The position the team is going to try to trade up to.
• The value of the draft position
• How many points of draft equity the team needs to trade in order to create a fair deal
• The picks being traded.  This is color coded to position/slot they want to move to.
• The amount of offers.  Again color coded
• Where the first player at each position is project to go(best guess)

Some teams are in a draft position in which they can fulfill one of their most pressing needs by doing nothing.  There are seven of these teams in the chart.  All seven are receiving trade offers from other teams.

Every team is either receiving offers or attempting to trade into a position to fulfill a need.  You can use the chart to figure out the fair value to move up into any draft position and also what draft equity(picks) would needed to be traded away to move up.

Example – #2 Pick owned by Cleveland

Cleveland can satisfy a major need at EDGE or QB with the #2 pick.  If they would trade it away it would probably come with a 10% – 20% increase in fair value to pry it from them.  Thus a team trading up would need to pay 110% – 120% of fair value to move up.  In 2024 the average amount to move up in the draft was about 9%, or teams average paying 109% of fair value.  It is higher in early round and can be almost 0% in late rounds.

The chart predicts 3 teams would be willing to try to trade up to the #2 pick(Value 2375):

CAROLINA – Offers #8, #57, #74, & 2026 1st a total of 2460.8 points  The value of Clevelands pick is 2375 points, so this offer includes about a 4% premium.

NEW ORLEANS – Offers #9, #40, #112, #131 & 2026 1st round pick.  The value of this offer is 2490.3 points, so the Saints are offering about a 5% premium.

ATLANTA – Offers #15, #46, #118, 2026 1st & 2nd round picks.  The value of this offer is 2384.3 points.  It basically offers no premium but would be considered a fair deal.  Cleveland would need to decide whether they believe Atlanta will have an off year in 2025 to make this offer the most attractive.  If the Browns project the Falcons to be in the bottom 10 teams, their 2026 1st & 2nd round picks would have a lot of extra value compared to the avg value used for future pick values.

If I were the Browns GM I would stick to a 15% or higher premium for the #2 pick.  An offer around 2730 points would be about a 15% premium.  The get to that premium the Saints would need to throw in their #71 pick and their 2026 3rd round pick as well.  That would be an addition 338 points and bring their total offer up to around 2728 points.

But look at what the Saints would have to give: #9, #40, #71, #113, #131, 2026 1st & 3rd round picks.   This move is almost Ditkaesque in its level of tempatation for the Brown, and level of risk for the Saints.

Creating Trades For Any Team For Any Draft Position

Rather than go through every position and every example, I think it would be best to simply leave the rest to public discussion, comment, and manipulation.  Have fun totaling up the amount of equity your team would need to give up to move up into any position in the draft.  Call me an idiot for the projected trade offers I made in the chart.  Throw some new tempting, yet fair, deals out there for the rest of us to see.

These series of draft articles are my favorite to write and read about on Reddit.  Last year was the first year I posted it on there and it was great to see what my fellow armchair GMs come up with.  Next post will be a short one on 2025 NFL Draft Team Equity and picks, so be sure to check it out to see how muck firepower your team has in this year’s draft.