2024 NFL Draft – Draft Captital & Draft Trades For Every Team

With the 2024 NFL Draft a month away, let’s take a look at which teams have the most draft firepower and what a trade might look like for each team.  This will a create a Would You or Wouldn’t You make the trade scenario for every team.  Some teams will have the option to trade up for their coveted player, and also receive offers for their draft position.  Before putting on the GM hat, let’s take a look at how the teams are positioned when it comes to draft equity in the form of draft points.

READ MORE: 2024 NFL Draft 1st Round Trades For Every Team

To do this we are going to use the AVG-3xHill-Johnson Draft Trade Chart from the previous post.  It is simply a synthesis of the two most populare trade value charts used by NFL teams.  The chart is posted below for reference.

AVG-3xHill-Johnson Draft Chart

The value of future picks(2025+) are shown in the boxed numbers on the last row.  As a rule of thumb, a future pick is worth around the value of the 28th or 29th pick in the round:

• Future 1st = 636.8
• Future 2nd = 273.0
• Future 3rd = 119.1
• Future 4th = 49.7
• Future 5th = 22.9
• Future 6th = 9.5
• Future 7th = 3.0

Using the chart we can add up how many points each team has in the draft.  Teams with more points have more equity and ability to trade up.  Draft points were broken up into 1st round points and 2nd through 7th round points due to the fact that 1st round points are very heavily weight.  This allows you to see which teams have a lot of draft equity even if they have a lower, or no, 1st round pick.

Note: There is a pending 7th round pick swap between the Chief & Titans that hasn’t been made official yet

2024 NFL Draft Capital By Team

2024 NFL Draft Overall Draft Capital By Team – Round 1

2024 NFL Draft Capital Rounds 2 through 7 – Most to Least

Creating  Draft Trade Options For Every NFL Team

Now that we know the picks each team has and the value of each pick, we can start proposing trades for every team.  The idea of this exercise is for each team to try to trade up for the best player at a position of need.  While most teams have several needs, only one was selected for this post.  However, it would be simple to use the chart to create proposed trades for any position or draft slot for any two teams.

In the chart below you will see a series of columns:

• Team – Name of Team
• Need – Position of Greatest Need
• Jump to Slot – The draft slot they would need to trade up to.
• Value of Pick – The value of the pick owned
• Points Short – How many points short the team is after offering their first round pick(s).
• Compensation – The compensation needed to move to the desired slot.
• Offers – The amount of teams wanting to move into the slot
• Status – Team build status:
  • Arm- Needs QB
  • Recruit – Armed, needs more players
  • Weaponize – Armed, looking for specific piece(s)
• First Off Board – Estimated draft slot that the first player from that position will be chosen

Trade Rules & Notes

Teams without a 1st round pick(Houston, Cleveland, Carolina) are excluded from the exercise.  Teams that are required to give up multiple picks in the same round of the 2025 draft can split the picks over the 2025 & 2026 drafts.

Four teams, Chicago(QB), Arizona(WR), LA Chargers(OT), & Indianapolis Colts(CB) do not make trade offers to move up.  They can, in theory, stay where they are and get the best player at the position they want.  The Colts at #15 may not have the ability to select the best CB if one were to be selected before that, bt the other three are fairly safe bets with the Bears being a lock.

All trade compensation is based on a fair trade with no premium paid by the team trading up.  To add a premium, you can simply calculate the additional points required and either add picks, or adjust the offered picks to come to the desired total points to include a premium.

2024 NFL Draft – Trades For Every Team For Best Available Player At Need Position

Let’s look at a simple example:

Washington wants to move up to #1 to select their preferred QB.

WASHINGTON OFFER To Move to #1 Pick

• #2 pick
• #40 pick
• 2025 3rd round pick

If you are the Bears GM would you take this deal?  Would you ask for a sweetener that Washington could stomach?

If you are the Washington GM, would you take the deal if the Bears offered it?  At what point do you draw the line if they ask for a premium in points or a player?

As the Bears GM you will see in the Offers column, you have six offers to consider.  The offers are color coded so you can go through the options from each team.  In this case the Bears have the following offers besides the one from the Commanders:

NEW ENGLAND OFFER To Move to #1 Pick

• #3 pick
• #34 pick
• 2025 1st round pick

NY GIANTS OFFER To Move to #1 Pick

• #6
• #47
• #70
• 2025 1st & 2nd

MINNESOTA OFFER To Move to #1 Pick

• #11
• #23
• #108
• 2025 1st + 2nd + 3rd

DENVER OFFER To Move to #1 Pick

• #12
• #81
• #144
• 2025 1st + 2nd + 3rd
• 2026 1st

LAS VEGAS OFFER To Move to #1 Pick

• #13
• #44
• #77
• 2025 1st + 2nd + 3rd
• 2026 2nd

So now with all the options laid out before you, what would you do as the Bears GM?  Do you stay at #1 and draft Williams or are you tempted by one of the offers?  As the offering team GM, would you give up this kind of draft capital, and perhaps more, to land the player you covet?

Trading Up For Pick #2 or #3

Pick #2 & #3 in the 2024 draft could also be in play.  Rather creating a confusing chart with all sorts of offers strewn about, let’s just summarize the difference between trading up for #1, and trading up for pick #2 or #3:

• The value of the #2 pick is 624 points less than pick #1.  The value of a future 1st round pick is 636.8.  624 points is roughly the value of the 29th pick in the draft.  So you can basically subtract a future or late 1st round pick from any offer to make it a fair offer for the second pick.
• The value of the #3 pick is 1129 points(about the 12th pick in the draft) less than the #1 pick, or 505 points(37th pick) less than the second pick.  Thus to trade up for the #3 pick a team could do so without having to trade a second 1st rounder if they have the draft equity in the 2nd through 4th rounds.

Trading Up For The 4th Pick

This is probably the most interesting slot in the draft right now.  The Cardinals have a QB they like in Murray.  They can do the safe thing and take Harrison at #4, or they can roll the dice and trade back.  The draft boards are always in flux but I am going to take a shot and try to predict the order of positions taken in the draft.

I set two options for the 1st 6 picks: That 4QB 1WR & 1OL would be selected OR that 3QB 2WR & 1OT would be selected.  Naturally this means that neither of these scenarios will play out, but let’s go through with this example in any case.

I made one assumption in all the mock drafts, that 3 QBs would be picked in the first 3 picks.

• An estimated % chance of the real draft following the mock is given.
• The Team column is my prediction of who makes the pick should the draft go in that predicted order.
• Since I think the chances of an OL being taken 4th is extremely low, it leads to all the mock drafts having an OL at #4 having a low chance of occuring.

A Trade Between Arizona, LA Chargers & NY Giants

Keeping in mind this is a lot of guesswork, there is about a 30% chance that the #4 pick is a QB.  There is a small chance someone would trade up for an OL at #4,  so let’s say that is 3%.  That would leave about a 67% chance of a WR going #4.  If a QB goes at #4 then almost assuredly a WR will go at #5.

The wild card in this is the Chargers at #5.  Would they take a WR to replace Allen or would they take a OT to protect Herbert?  Naturally their phones are going to be ringing too so there are a lot of moving parts.  I think the Chargers want the best OT from this draft, but if they play coy and hint that they love the idea of a WR at #5, they could bluff their way into a extra day 3 pick.

How about this for a trade scenario that involves no teams outside the top 6?

The Cardinals agree to trade #4 to the NY Giants for pick #6:

• The Cardinals receive picks #6, #107 and a 2025 3rd round pick from the Giants.
• The Chargers receive pick #138 from the Cardinals in exchange for selecting an OL at #5
• The Giants receive pick #4 with assurances they will take a QB.

This scenario ends with the NYG with a QB, the Chargers with the best OT, and the Cardinals with the best WR.  The Giants over pay the Cardinals by about the value of the 5th round pick the Cardinals then flip to the Chargers.  Thus the Giants are paying for the pick to the Chargers by overpaying Arizona.

The good news for the Giants is they get their QB of the future at the cost of a 3rd and 4th round pick. The Cardinals are swapping a 5th for a 4th and picking up a 3rd in 2025.  The Chargers bluff their way into a bonus 5th round pick.  Most importantly, every team gets what they wanted at a cost everyone can live with.

Trading for the #8 Pick

Atlanta could find themselves in a position to trade down if they are not interested in the best Edge rusher.  Teams looking for that position are probably looking to sneak into the top 10 picks to have a shot of drafting the best DE/Edge type player.

The problem for Atlanta would be that they cannot risk trading back too far and still get a premium OT.  If they were looking at a C/G type they could trade back further, maybe into the mid 20’s.  They would seem to be out of the QB, RB, WR & TE markets, so if it is an Offensive player it has to be a OL.  I would not rule out WR entirely if Atlanta(or Cousins) happens to be in love with one.

The other option for the Falcons is to sit tight and take the best Edge rusher at #8.  Or they can take the 2nd best OT assuming two do not go in the top 7 picks.

They ideal scenario for the Falcons might be if Minnesota, Denver, or Las Vegas want to trade up to #8.

Trading For, Or Out Of, Picks #11, #12, & #13

This is the last interesting cluster of first round picks to look at prior to knowing the actual draft selections.  Once the real draft is in progress, picks lower than these could become very interesting, but for now this is the last group of picks we will look at for trade purposes.

The problem for the Vikings, Broncos, & Raiders is that they all need a QB.  There is a better than 50% chance that 4 QBs could be off the board before pick #11.  It could be that one of these teams is the one that traded up to get one of the four QBs).  Thus this is a problem associated more with the picks than the team that owns it.  Any team trading into these slots pre draft would run into this issue, but this wouldnt be a problem for a team that doesn’t need a QB.

So, it would seem that if any of these three teams want a top four QB, they need to trade up.  Failing that, their pick may be more valuable to a team seeking a specific weapon as opposed to a team simply filling numerous holes.  Trading back may allow them to select the 5th or 6th best QB in a slot more aligned to their value as opposed to overreaching(and overpaying) for such a QB.

Contenders Trading Up

What is interesting about picks #11, #12, & #13 is they would most likely give a team the chance to select the best DT or CB.  If you look at what contenders are looking for these positions you come up with a juicy list: Philadelphia, Green Bay, Tampa Bay, Detroit & Baltimore.

The closest of those teams to pick #11 is the Eagles who would need to trade pick #22 and about 400 more points to the Vikings to get pick #11.  Pick #70 is worth 372 points, so toss in pick #161, or a 2025 5th, and that’s about what it would take to jump up to #11.

Naturally it take a bit more for a team like Detroit or Baltimore to jump up to #11(about 150 points more for Detroit and 170 points more for the Ravens, both are about a mid 3rd round pick on top of the Eagles cost).  It would cost a bit less to jump up to #12 or #13, which may be the perfect spot for best CB or DT.