2024 NFL Draft 1st Round Trades For Every Team

In the previous article, 2024 NFL Draft – Draft Captital & Draft Trades For Every Team, we took a look at 2024 NFL draft trades from a 100 foot level.  In this post we will look at the options for all of the draft slots that appear to be in play for trades.   The draft slots in play are a combination of teams that are open to trading down and projected slot position for the best player at each position.  Essentially, what slot would a team have to trade into to be able to draft the best available player at a chosen position.

To do this we are going to use the AVG-3xHill-Johnson Draft Trade Chart from the previous post.  It is simply a synthesis of the two most popular trade value charts used by NFL teams.  The chart is posted below for reference.

Strength of the 2024 NFL Draft Class

Most mock drafts and draft reviews say that 2024 is a particularly strong draft through pick #150.  After that point it kind of drops off a cliff.  Houston is a team that has seemingly been gathering picks in the top 150 area.  Their trade out of the 1st round speaks to the value they must see beyond it.

Last post I included a chart with draft capital sorted by team.  To try to see which teams are well positioned in the Top 150 picks, I calculated each teams:

• draft capital through pick #150
• the % of their capital within the first 150 picks
• amount of picks that are in the top 150

The chart below is sorted by draft capital through pick #150.

2024 NFL Trade Chart

In the chart below you will see a series of columns:

• Team – Name of Team
• Need – Position of Greatest Need
• Jump to Slot – The draft slot they would need to trade up to.
• Value of Pick – The value of the pick owned
• Points Short – How many points short the team is after offering their first round pick(s).
• Compensation – The compensation needed to move to the desired slot.
• Offers – The amount of teams wanting to move into the slot
• Status – Team build status:
  • Arm- Needs QB
  • Recruit – Armed, needs more players
  • Weaponize – Armed, looking for specific piece(s)
• First Off Board – Estimated draft slot that the first player from that position will be chosen

Best Available Draft Slot Positions

The projected slot for the best player at each position is as follows:

• QB – #1
• WR – #4
• OT – #5
• Edge/OLB – #8
• TE – #10
• DT – #13
• CB – #15
• C/G – #26
• ILB, Safety & RB – Round 2

A few thoughts on the projected 1st player at the position draft slots:

• WR & OT could easily slip to #5 & #6 thru #9.  I don’t think WR is slipping past #5, but OT could slide as a second WR could easily come off the board at #6.  I also wouldn’t be surpised if some team panics and jumps up to take the 5th QB.  As we have seen in recent draft history, teams tend to reach for QBs and tend to overvalue them in the draft.
• TE – While the best TE in the draft might be worthy of a top 10 selection, it is hard to project which team in the top 10, or a team outside trading up, who would prefer to select the TE as opposed to another position or trading out.  NY Jets could use a TE, and they sit at #10, but I haven’t heard them directly connected to Bowers yet.
• DT & CB could be reversed, in that a CB goes before a DT.  The first at both positions probably go between #10 – #15.

Paying A Premium

The one thing that is impossible to know is the premium a given team will ask above and beyond a fair trade.  The major influence in a premium is often the number of suitors.  With no other teams making an offer, a team may have to “settle” for a fair trade.  With multiple teams making offers, the premium becomes, in essence, the tie breaker.  In this case numerous teams are willing to make a fair trade, so which team is willing to pay a price above and beyond fair, and how far?

The other influence would be the perceived value of the intended target player.  If the player to be drafted via trade is seen as being transformational, or significantly better than current and former peers at the position, an additional premium is going to be asked.

Apparently Caleb Williams is being spoken about with those types of adjectives, so the Bears may be able to extract a premium based on Williams perceived, or perhaps measured when it comes to the pre draft process, talent.  Harrison is being spoken about as this type of receiver, so again the #4 slot may require that an additional premium be paid.

Estimating A Fair Premium

I realize that “fair premium” is a bit of an oxymoron, but it is meant in a sense of trying to estimate what kind of premium could be extracted in certain cases.  Here is a guess:

• Premium Player (10%) – QB(25%), which decreases in later rounds.
  In round 2, the player based premium charged may only be 5%/10%. By round 3, its probably close to nothing.
• Per Interested Suitor (5%),.  This probably stays constant as 5% on top of a pick worth 50 points is only 2.5 points in premium, or like the last pick in the draft.  With only 1 team interested, there would be no premium.
• For example, a team trading up to grab a QB in round 2 may only pay a premium along the lines of  QB(10%) and a per suitor charge of 5%.  In later rounds the position premium fees drop to nothing, as do the amount of suitors for a later pick.
• The premium is always based on the point value of the pick being traded.  If a premium of 30% is required, we can simply multiply the point value of the pick by 1.3 to find out the total amount of point required, premium included.

I think with some research and a math wiz or two, we could assign unique premium %’s to each position/round/amount of suitors.  However for simplicity, and to set some kind of baseline for testing, let’s stick with the simple pecentages above.

Given the example of the Bears, who have 6 offers for a Premium QB at #1, the estimated premium the Bears could expect is:

Premium QB(25%) + 6 * (5%) = 55%
3000 * (1.55) = 4,650 or 1650 more draft points than a fair trade. The 1650 point premium is worth about the #4 pick.  This is on top of whatever captial it would require to get to 3000 points(the “fair trade” offer).

To give you an idea of how many points that is, the Bears have the most draft points in the 2024 NFL Draft,  4515 points.  Thus, the Bears do not have enough draft points to trade for the #1 pick plus a premium, and they own it.  I know this make no sense in reality, but this is theoretical(I made all these premium percentages up remember).

Contrast this with 2 offers for the #8 pick, projected to be the best Edge player.  Atlanta could expect the following fair premium:

Premium Edge(10%) + 2 * (5%) = 20%
1309 * 120%  = 1570.8 or 271 points more than a fair trade.  The 271 point premium is equivalent to a high 3rd round pick.

 

Evaluating The NFL Draft Trade Offers

With all that said about premiums, for the evaluation of the proposed trades below, we will always offer the “fair deal”.  The fair deal being defined as offering the amount of points the draft slot position is worth with no premium.  Think of this as the opening offer from the team looking to trade up.

After each fair deal is proposed, a final premium deal is offered.  This is the selected fair deal with the calculated premium applied.

Chicago Bears – Offers For The #1 Pick

Premium QB(25%) + 6 * (5%) = 55%
3000 * (155%) = 4,650 or 1650 more draft points than a fair trade. The 1650 point premium is worth about the #4 pick.

The Fair Offers

WASHINGTON OFFER To Move to #1 Pick

• #2 pick
• #40 pick
• 2025 3rd round pick

NEW ENGLAND OFFER To Move to #1 Pick

• #3 pick
• #34 pick
• 2025 1st round pick

NY GIANTS OFFER To Move to #1 Pick

• #6
• #47
• #70
• 2025 1st & 2nd

MINNESOTA OFFER To Move to #1 Pick

• #11
• #23
• #108
• 2025 1st + 2nd + 3rd

DENVER OFFER To Move to #1 Pick

• #12
• #81
• #144
• 2025 1st + 2nd + 3rd
• 2026 1st

LAS VEGAS OFFER To Move to #1 Pick

• #13
• #44
• #77
• 2025 1st + 2nd + 3rd
• 2026 2nd

The Premium Offer For The #1 Pick

Washington Offers ALL Their 2024 Draft Picks + 2025 1st Round Pick

Let’s go full Ditka right out of the gate.  The Bears have 6 offers for the #1 pick.  The Commanders, Patriots, Giants, Vikings, Broncos, & Raiders are all looking for quarterbacks.  All of the offers are above are worth approximately 3000 points.  The Bears should ask for a high premium based on the scouting reports on Williams.

Above that premium was calculated at 55%, so Chicago should be looking for offers around 4500+ points if they are to trade out.  This is a massive amount of draft capital, which is why there have been few mock drafts predicting that Chicago will trade the pick.  If anything, trading Fields signified that Chicago is going to select Williams unless overwhelmed by an offer.

Washington has the 2nd most draft points with 3919 points.  Thus the Commanders would need to trade their entire draft and their 2025 1st Round pick(637) to get the #1 pick(4556 points total) if Chicago is asking for a “fair premium”.  Washington’s new owner wants to make a splash, and this would be a cannonball.

PROJECTION

With the first pick in the 2024 draft, the Bears select Caleb Williams, QB USC.

In all honesty, I am not sure either Washington or Chicago would take this deal.  Washington would have to think they are only a QB away from at least the playoffs, if not divisional round area, in 2024.  I don’t think they are, but no one had Houston winning 10 games last year.

Chicago would get the “2nd best” QB(Hello Mr. Stroud), double their draft equity, and bag an extra 1st in 2025. BUT, if Williams is the real deal, and whoever they pick #2 is not, it will be evaluated as a big loss for Chicago and a big win for Washington.  The safer play is Williams at #1 and fiddle around with the #9 pick if you have a trade itch.

Arizona Cardinals – Offers For The #4 Pick

Premium WR(10%) + 6 * (5%) = 40%
1637 * (140%) = 2292 or 655 more draft points than a fair trade. The 655 point premium is worth about the 27th pick.

The Fair Offers

CHICAGO BEARS OFFER To Move to #4 Pick

• #9 pick
• 2025 2nd round pick
• 2025 3rd round pick

NEW YORK JETS OFFER To Move to #4 Pick

• #10 pick
• #111
• #135
• 2025 2nd round pick
• 2025 4th round pick

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS OFFER To Move to #4 Pick

• #14 pick
• #45
• #150
• #168
• 2025 3rd round pick

PITTSBURGH STEELERS OFFER To Move to #4 Pick

• #20 pick
• #51
• #98
• #119
• 2025 2nd round pick

BUFFALO BILLS OFFER To Move to #4 Pick

• #28 pick
• #60
• #128
• 2025 1st round pick
• 2025 5th round pick

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS OFFER To Move to #4 Pick

• #31 pick
• #64
• 2025 1st round pick
• 2025 3rd round pick
• 2025 4th round pick

The Premium Offer For The #4 Pick

Minnesota offers #11, #23, a 2025 1st Round Pick
Arizona trades the #4 pick and a 2025 3rd round pick.

Surprise!  The two first round picks the Vikings own are worth 1810 points.  To make up the 482 points required by the premium, thy could send a 2025 1st round pick and receive a 2025 3rd round pick in return.  .

Arizona would end up with three 1st round picks this year(#11, #23, #27) and pick up an extra 1st in 2025 in return for their 2025 3rd round pick.  With this kind of ammo, they could easily jump back up reminiscent of, well the 2023 Arizona Cardinals.  Maybe something like package the #11 and some draft equity for the #8 and the best Edge rusher?

PROJECTION – TRADE Arizona Trades Pick #4 To Minnesota
With the Fourth pick in the 2024 draft, the Vikings select J.J. McCarthy, QB Michigan.

With the premium figured on the WR position, the Vikings(in theory, and this is a massive IN THEORY), save on the premium required.  If the slot was considered a guaranteed QB selection, the premium would have been higher.  But so far McCarthy does not seem to be “locked in” to that #4 slot.  This may benefit the Vikings by lowering the premium required since other bidding teams may be looking to take a WR and do not wish to pay QB premium rates.

Los Angeles Chargers – Offers For The #5 Pick

Premium OT(10%) + 6 * (5%) = 40%
1552 * (140%) = 2172 or 620 more draft points than a fair trade. The 620 point premium is worth about the #29th pick.

The Fair Offers

TENNESSEE TITANS OFFER To Move to #5 Pick

• #7 pick
• 2025 3rd round pick
• 2025 4th round pick

ATLANTA FALCONS OFFER To Move to #5 Pick

• #8 pick
• #79
• 2025 4th round pick

CINCINNATI BENGALS OFFER To Move to #5 Pick

• #18 pick
• #49
• #194
• 2025 2nd round pick

MIAMI DOLPHINS OFFER To Move to #5 Pick

• #21 pick
• 2025 1st round pick
• 2025 3rd round pick

DALLAS COWBOYS OFFER To Move to #5 Pick

• #24 pick
• #56
• #87
• 2025 3rd round pick

SAN FRANCISCO 49ers OFFER To Move to #5 Pick

• #31 pick
• #63
• #133
• #176
• 2025 1st round pick

The Premium Offer For Pick #5

The Atlanta Falcons Offer picks #8, #79 & a 2025 1st round pick

By changing the 2025 4th round pick into a 1st round pick, the Falcons can pay the premium on pick #5.  This would give Atlanta the choice of the best WR or best OT to compliment the Cousins signing.

For the Chargers, this would probably work for them.  They would be guaranteed either one of the best two OTs or WRs, assuming 4 QBs go before pick 8.  They would pick up an extra 3rd round pick this year and a 1st round pick in 2025.

PROJECTION – TRADE LA Chargers Trade Pick #5 To Atlanta
With the fifth pick in the 2024 draft, the Falcons select Joe Alt, OT Notre Dame.

The name called out could just as easily be a WR, but let’s stay with OT for this exercise.  If Atlanta correctly sniffs out a draft that has 4QBs and 2WRs going in the top 6, they would probably be best off sitting at #8.  Tennessee is almost assuredly going OT if they select at #7, so at worst Atlanta winds up with Fashanu at OT.

That means Atlanta needs to figure out if there are any other teams looking to trade up to #5 for an OT.  If all the other suitors are trading up for a WR, Atlanta could sit at #8 knowing they will get Alt or Fashanu.  If any team is looking to trade to #5 for an OT, Atlanta would need to look to move to #5 or #6 to get in front of the Titans.

In this scenario the Chargers pick up the extra 2024 3rd rounder and a 2025 1st for dropping back 3 spots.  They can still get a WR or OT, but may not have the choice between which to go with.

FALCONS/CHARGERS – Offers For The #8 Pick

Premium Edge/OLB(10%) + 2 * (5%) = 20%
1309 * (120%) = 1571 or 262 more draft points than a fair trade. The 262 point premium is worth about the #63rd pick.

The Fair Offers

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES OFFER To Move to #8 Pick

• #53 pick
• #120
• #171
• 2025 3rd round pick

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS OFFER To Move to #8 Pick

• #26 pick
• #57
• 2025 2nd round pick
• 2025 4th round pick

The Premium Offer For Pick #8

The Arizona Cardinals offer pick #11, #66, & #90 for the 8th pick.

Arizona would be offering 1543 points worth of equity, not quite the premium calculated, but perhaps enough to make either the Falcons or Chargers(who traded back into this slot in this exercise) think about taking two 3rd rounders to drop 3 slots. Full premium would require something like a 2025 4th and a 2025 6th back as change.

Meanwhile Arizona would be flipping the #11 pick from Minnesota and the two 3rd rounders, for the #8 pick.  They would still have picks #23 & #27 in their pocket.

PROJECTION –
With the eigth pick in the draft….

IF ATLANTA – Take OT or Trade pick #8 to Arizona for picks #11, #66, & #90.

IF CHARGERS – Select best remaining WR or OT.

My thinking here is that Atlanta has more flexibility in dropping an initial 3 spots than the Chargers have in dropping an ADDITIONAL 3 spots(they dropped from 5 to 8 in the trade above).  Los Angeles also loses almost any hope of getting a top 2 WR or OT if they drop to #11.

Atlanta could drop back the 3 spots, and perhaps look to grab a WR or OT that fell or perhaps look to trade back again.  Or they can sit tight and grab a top 2 OT if there, or consider options if not.

Pick #10 – Tight End

The one tight end projected to go in round 1, Brock Bowers from Georgia, has no real solid landing slot in the mock drafts.  He has been projected to go as high as #10 to the Jets and as low as #22 to the Eagles.

While TE is an emerging position in the NFL recently, I am not sure any team is going to spend serious capital to trade up for Bowers.  My guess is he is just going to land with a team with a pick between 10 – 25.  If there was a trade up for him, my guess it would just be for a few slots and not a major move.

Picks #11 & #12

Minnesota is likely to be active trying to trade up.  I honestly have no idea what Denver is going to do at #12; they have little in the way of mid round draft capital in 2024 for trading up.  Both these slots could be prime opportunities to move down, but moving down after moving up wouldn’t seem to make much sense in Minnesota’s case.  What makes the most sense is that the Vikings trade up and the Broncos trade down, so neither team ends up in these slots.

However there is one scenario that could happen for either team:  They reach for Penix or Nix at #11 or #12.  Or even more frightening, one goes at #11 and the other at #12.  In an analytical world this may be a round too early for either one(or at least 15 picks early), but QBs trump logic.

If I had to guess which team would reach, I’d guess Minnesota.  I base that solely on having pick #23 as a safety net.  If they reach at #11 and the QB flames out, they can hopefully point to the player selected at #23 as still getting a piece in the draft.

Denver also has the luxury of seeing what Minnesota does before having to make their decision.  If the Vikings pass on the 5th best QB at #11 and then Denver takes him, Minnesota is kind at the dance with no date.

Even if Denver passes on the QB, the Raiders sitting at #13 would still be a worry.  And god forbid both Denver and Las Vegas take QBs.  This really puts Minnesota in a bind if they want to come out of this draft with a QB and may force their hand at #11.

RAIDERS – Offers For The #13 Pick

Premium DT(10%) + 3 * (5%) = 25%
1079 * (125%) = 1349 or 270 more draft points than a fair trade. The 270 point premium is worth about the #62nd pick.

The Fair Offers

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS OFFER To Move to #13 Pick

• #16 pick
• #102
• 2025 5th round pick

ARIZONA CARDINALS OFFER To Move to #13 Pick

• #27 pick
• #71
• #104
• 2025 3rd round pick

BALTIMORE RAVENS OFFER To Move to #13 Pick

• #30 pick
• #62
• #93
• #113

The Premium Offer For Pick #13

The Arizona Cardinals offer pick #27, #35, #104, & #138 & 2025 5th round pick for the 13th pick.

Since we have to assume their trade for the 8 pick went through, we can’t use any of the equity we used in that trade.  Arizona would be offering 1350.4 points worth of equity.  The Cardinals would still have pick #23 in the first round and #66 at the top of round 3.

The Raiders would drop to the bottom of round 1, but pick up a high 2nd a low 3rd round pick & a 5th this year and next.  If Las Vegas cannot find it’s QB in the draft they should think about trading down and choosing as many high value players as they can to restock the cupboards.

PROJECTION – TRADE – Las Vegas trades pick #13 to Arizona.
With the 13th pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the Arizona Cardinals select Jer’Zhan Newton, DT, Illinois

With the extra 1st round pick still in their pocket, Arizona grabs a versitle DT that can stuff the run and rush the passer.  The Cardinals could also use a CB but I think there will be a quality one still around at #23.  It is entirely possible they could flip this order and take best CB at #13 and hope one of best 2 DTs is still there at #23.

With this move Arizona has flipped the #4 pick into the #8 and #13 picks, and swapped the 27th pick for the 23rd pick(trade with Minnesota for #4).  They do all this by charging one premium, yet paying a premium twice.  That is some nifty dealing.

Since the chances of the Raiders picking up their QB at 13 are slim(without reaching), I think this trade allows them the flexibility to find their QB at #27 or #35(assuming Nix or Penix are still there) without overpaying too much.  They can use the other pick to shore up the OL or grab some help in the secondary.

COLTS – Offers For The #15 Pick

Premium CB(10%) + 4 * (5%) = 30%
997 * (130%) = 1297 or 300 more draft points than a fair trade. The 300 point premium is worth about the #58th pick.

The Fair Offers

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS OFFER To Move to #15 Pick

• #17 pick
• #114
• #212

LOS ANGELES RAMS OFFER To Move to #15 Pick

• #19 pick
• #105
• 2025 4th round pick

GREEN BAY PACKERS OFFER To Move to #15 Pick

• #25 pick
• #58

DETROIT LIONS OFFER To Move to #15 Pick

• #29 pick
• #61
• 2025 3rd round pick

The Premium Offer For Pick #15

The Green Bay Packers offer pick #25, #58, #169 & a 2025 2nd round pick for the 15th pick.

I think the Packers think they can make some noise in the NFC this year.  To do that, it would be best to beat Detroit to the NFC North title.  To do that, it would be best to grab the best CB in the draft to cover the Lions’ receivers.  By drafting to beat the Lions, they would also be drafting to beat the 49ers & Eagles who have formitable WR squads.  This trade, while pricey, allows GB to keep pick #41 to add a bit more top shelf talent to the 2024 roster.

The Colts need to decide whether 2024 is in play or 2025 is the real target.  Considering Richardson missed most of last year, my guess is that 2025 is the target.  If that is the case, then trading down makes a lot of sense.  They pick up two 2nd round picks (one this year and one next) to drop down 10 spots.  They get a late 5th rounder as a bit of a sweetener.  Signing Kenny Moore probably makes the trade more palatable.

PROJECTION – TRADE – Indianapolis trades pick #15 to Green Bay.
With the 15th pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the Green Bay Packers select Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo

There are some potholes with this projected trade.  It is very possible the best CB goes in the top 10.  There is also a good chance Terrion Arnold, CB Alabama, is picked before Mitchell.  So let’s look at this as GB trading up into the slot to draft a CB more than them targeting a specific player.

The Packers get their CB.  The Colts get more draft firepower for this year and next.  If the Colts decide 2024 is in play, the trade is probably off and they use the 15th pick themselves.

Pick #26 – IOL

There may not be an interior offensive lineman taken until late in round 1.  However I just saw a mock draft that had the Eagles taking a Center at pick #16 after trading up.  I don’t think that would be a wise move by the Eagles, but it means someone thinks there is an IOL with a mid first round grade.

While I put the target slot at #26, the first IOL could go 5 – 10 slots higher.   My guess is if there is a trade late in round 1 for an IOL it will be a team jumping back into the round to grab him.  I doubt there would be a high premium or numerous suitors, so the cost should be close to fair value.

INSIDE LINEBACKERS, SAFETIES & RUNNING BACKS

There aren’t any inside linebackers, safeties or running backs locked into round 1.  The free agency period also solved many contending teams’ RB issues.  It is possible a RB is taken late in round 1, but more likely the first will come off the board in round 2.

As for safeties, Cooper DeJean out of Iowa, or Tyler Nubin out of Minnesota are the only two safeties that could slip into the first round.  Personally I think they are both early day 2 guys, but I am also not privy to any interviews or workouts the teams have had access to.  However, I would be more surprised to see a RB slip into the first round than a safety.

Inside linebackers are led by Edgerrin Cooper(the NFL should be mandated to have a minimum of one Edgerrin per year) out of Texas A&M.  He is another guy who could hear his name called late on day 1, near the bottom of the first round.  I think teams may go on a run of WRs in the mid 20’s knocking back some guys who would have been late 1st rounders into round 2.  Cooper may end up being one of those guys.