NFL 2025 – Week 5 Games Picks Results & Spread Data

The Algorithm bounced back to an 8 – 6 record in week 5.  If you are interested in a fairly strong angle so far in 2025 ATS numbers, keep reading.

Week 5 Against The Spread  8 – 6

2025 Season 42 – 36

Algorithm Lifetime Record

2025: 42 – 36 (53.85%)
2024: 136 -128 – 8 (51.52%)
2023: 127 -103 – 10 (55.22%)

Lifetime: 305 – 267 – 18 (53.32%)

It Pays To Read Every Week

Last week’s results post was mostly about how in 2025 favorites and home teams are struggling.  If you played that angle in week 5, you are probably a happy camper.  Home teams and favorites both tanked in week 5.  Favorites were 5 – 9 ATS and straight up.  Home teams were 4 – 9 ATS & straight up (the game in Ireland is considered a Neutral field).

Favorites are now 38 – 40 ATS, while home teams are a dreadful 29 – 46 in 2025.  The bookies will also see this and adjust, but they are not adjusting fast enough to reduce the angle.

Pick of the Week – Indianapolis -6.5 vs Las Vegas

I will be the first to admit, when the week 5 power ratings came out, I was both interested and nervous to see where the Colts would land.  The Algorithm is based on a small 4 game sample in week 5, and Indianapolis has been playing lights out so far this year.  It was a mathematical/statistical situation ripe for producing rotten fruit.

The Colts slipped in at #4 in the power ratings, but only 0.5 points behind #1 Detroit.  So we have the Colts as the 4th best team on the site, and the Algorithm saying lay -6.5 on them vs the Raiders in the picks.  When this blows up in our face it is going to be awfully messy.

It seems a little silicon luck goes a long way, because the Colts came out and spanked the Raiders to the tune of 40 – 6.  And it wasn’t even that close.  It will be interesting to see where the Colts show up in the power ratings this week.  Detroit did their job as a #1 team, but this was again another explosive statistical performance by all three phases of the Indianapolis team.

And some publisher better be on top of  The Dainel Jones Indy Diet book.  He is putting unicorn dust or something on his Wheeties this year….

Punk of the Week – Baltimore +1.5 vs. Houston

And on the other side of the spectrum, how about going with Baltimore at home as an underdog.  Not sure how often that has happened in the past 5 years, but it would only be when Jackson is out so it can’t be more than a handful of times.

Oh and hold on, they are playing against the same team that made The Algorithm look stupid last week in the Texans, when they demolished the Titans 26- 0.

Except, Houston came out and decided demolishing The Algorithm was too easy, and instead we will turn it up a notch to pulverize.  Oh, and hang on, what is this button labelled eviscerate let’s see what that does…..

Houston 44  Baltimore 10

Yikes….

NFL Week 5 vs. Spread

Favorites 5 – 9
Season 38 – 40

Home 4 – 9 – 1
Season 29 – 46

Neutral Games – 3 (Team Listed Home is 2 –1)

NFL Week 5 Straight Up

Favorites 5 – 9 
Season 48 – 29 – 1

Home 4 – 9 – 1
Season 41 – 34

Neutral Games – 3 (Underdog is 2 – 1)