NFL 2025 – Week 4 Games Picks Results & Spread Data
The Algorithm dropped the ball going 7 – 9 in week 4. Week 4 was the final week in which 2024 stats were used in the calculation of team power ratings. Starting in week 5, all power ratings, and therefore picks, will be based solely on 2025 stats.
Week 4 Against The Spread 7 – 9
2025 Season 34 – 30
Algorithm Lifetime Record
2025: 34 – 30 (53.13%)
2024: 136 -128 – 8 (51.52%)
2023: 127 -103 – 10 (55.22%)
Lifetime: 297 – 261 – 18 (53.23%)
On The Road Again
Tough week for the home fans as home teams went a measly 5 – 10 -1 ATS in week 4. Favorites also took it on the chin going 6 – 10 in week 4. So far in 2025, home teams are 25 – 37 ATS (there have two international games), and favorites are a mere 33 – 31. Straight up, favorites are 43 – 20 – 1 and home teams are 37 – 25, so we are seeing a lot of road underdogs cover so far in 2025.
Pick of the Week – NY Giants +6.5 vs LA Chargers
Rolling with a rookie QB making his first start against a solid, well coached team is normally not the recipe for finding a winner, but the Algorithm correctly sniffed out the G-men’s first win of the season.
Dart looked life he had breathed life into a moribund franchise for about 15 minutes…and then Nabers went down with the ACL injury. I’m sure one of the reason’s the Giants felt comfortable putting Dart in to begin with is that he at least had a #1 receiver to help get some easy reads and quick throws to an open guy. The timing of the injury is such that 2026 might even be a lost year for Nabers further hampering Dart’s ability to grow as a QB.
If you asked Daboll whether he would give back this win to miraculously heal Nabers, I think he would do it in a heartbeat. His chances of winning the remaining 13 games just went down significantly with the Nabers injury, and he needs wins to survive. This win might have cost him 3 more during the season due to the loss of a #1 WR.
Punk of the Week – Tennessee +6.5 @ Houston
You could triple that spread and the Titans still would have lost by a touchdown. Tennessee looks completely discombobulated on offense. It is like all eleven guys run a different play every play. The offensive line is terrible. Ward is holding onto the ball like most rookie QBs do. There is no running game. I am not sure there is more than a #3 WR on the roster.
Callahan has to be on borrowed time. The guy is something like 3 -18 as a head coach and just gave up play calling duties. What exactly is he doing there now? Getting a bird’s eye view of the pile of crap that he has collected in the past two seasons? You don’t call the plays and the team is an abject mess. I’m sorry, but what exactly do we need you for?
Someone in Tennesse has to make the call to save their #1 pick rookie QB from a lost season. Wait til the end of the season to fire Callahan and 2025 is a completely lost season and Ward has to learn a new system for 2026 in the off season.
Find a new head coach now and the Titans can at least use 2025 to get the new system installed and give Ward a chance to play in it this season. That give an entire off season of continuity, which should almost be the aim for the Titans at this point.
Let’s be honest, Callahan got the job because his last name was Callahan. It was the classic NFL nepo hire that didn’t work. There are still a few more lurking in the league right now, but it is time to pull the plug on this one.
NFL Week 4 vs. Spread
Favorites 6 – 10
Season 33 – 31
Home 5 – 10 – 1
Season 25 – 37
Neutral Games – 2 (Team Listed Home is 2 – 0)
NFL Week 4 Straight Up
Favorites 6 – 9 – 1
Season 43 – 20 – 1
Home 10 – 5 – 1
Season 37 – 25
Neutral Games – 2 (Underdog is 2 – 0)
