NFL 2025 – Week 3 Games Picks Results & Spread Data
The Algorithm tossed in the double encore in Week 3, again going going 9 – 7 against the spread for the third consecutive week. Week 4 is the last week in which 2024 stats are used in team power ratings. Starting in week 5, power rating calculation will come from 2025 stats only.
Weekly reminded: Remember that a stats based system cannot see weather or injuries, so be sure to take them into account because The Algorithm does not.
Week 3 Against The Spread 9 – 7
2025 Season 27 – 21
Algorithm Lifetime Record
2025: 27 – 21 (56.25%)
2024: 136 -128 – 8 (51.52%)
2023: 127 -103 – 10 (55.22%)
Lifetime: 290 – 252 – 18 (53.51%)
The Vegas Strangle Grip Loosens
Vegas had been locked into the games and lines the first two weekes of 2025, but week 3 saw them return to the mortal plane. In week one, Vegas only missed the final game spread by 10 points in three games. They were off by 10+ on six games in week 2, and seven games in week 3.
In week 3, nine games were off by more than 7 points. In week 2 in was eight games, and in week 1 a mere five games.
In week 1, Vegas was within 3 points in eight games. In weeks 2 & 3, Vegas only was within 3 points in four games each week.
Pick of the Week – Carolina + 5.5 vs Atlanta
Typically taking 5.5 points based on a line error of just 1.11 points would be a normal pick. But Carolina 30 – 0 shutouts are few and far between.
Toss in how much hype Atlanta’s defense was getting after two weeks, and taking the worst team in the league at home only getting 5.5 points wouldn’t seem like a stroke of genius.
But if you took the Panthers in this game, you literally didn’t sweat for a single second all game. I don’t know if that has even been said about a bet on the Panthers, hence why it wins the coveted Pick of the week.
Punk of the Week – Cincinnati +2.5 @ Minnesota
Sometimes you take the 2.5 points and just miss covering by 45.5. Such was the case with the abomination of a pick that the Bengals were in week 3. Jake Browning looked as though he had never seen a football before. Not exactly who dressed up as the Cincinnati defense but they weren’t much better than the real guys…
You would think they would design a special shovel that makes scraping their quarterback off the turf easier considering it appears they have five trunstiles as offensive linemen. Why Joe Burrow would want to rush back from injury to play behind this dreck of an offensive line is beyond me.
The only solace I can offer is that Eagles fans were once Bengals fans too. Some day Mike Brown will release the city of Cincinnati from his diabolical mix of incompetence and cheapness, and the Bengals will have their day in the sun.
NFL Week 3 vs. Spread
Favorites 9 – 7
Season 27 – 21
Home 9 – 7
Season 20 – 27
Neutral Games – 1 (Team Listed Home is 1 – 0)
NFL Week 2 Straight Up
Favorites 12 – 4
Season 37 – 11
Home 12 – 4
Season 27 – 20
Neutral Games – 1 (Underdog is 1 – 0)
