NFL 2025 – Week 2 Games Picks Results & Spread Data

The Algorithm plodded along in Week 2 going 9 – 7 against the spread for the second consecutive week.  In week 3, 50% of a team’s power rating will be the result of week 1 game stats.

Thus 50% of a team’s power rating is still coming from 2024 stats so be careful.  Also remember that a stats based system cannot see weather or injuries, so be sure to take them into account because The Algorithm does not.

Week 2 Against The Spread  9 – 7

2025 Season 18 – 14

Algorithm Lifetime Record

2025: 18 – 14 (56.25%)
2024: 136 -128 – 8 (51.52%)
2023: 127 -103 – 10 (55.22%)

Lifetime: 281 -245 – 18 (53.42%)

The Wise Guys Are Wise

I mentioned last week about how Vegas seemed to be locked in on the spreads in week 1.  Five games were decided by 0.5 point.   In week 2, only two games were decided by the hook, but there is another stat that backs up the idea that Vegas is locked in right now.

Favorties are 25 -7 straight up so far in 2025, winning at a 78.1% clip.  However against the spread they are a mere 18 -14.

Pick of the Week – Detroit -4.5 vs Chicago

Not sure what the bookies were seeing by establishing Detroit as only 4.5 popint favorites.  The Algorithm saw them as nearly 9 point favorites, and the Lions went on to smoke Chicago 52 – 21.  I said last year that I had some questions about Caleb Williams, and so far I haven’t seen any great answers in 2025.

Punk of the Week – Minnesota -4.5 vs Atlanta

McCarthy looked as bad in week 2 as he looked good in week 1.  I guess that is the expectations for “rookie” quarterbacks, but the game against the Falcons was a real clunker.  Six sacks, two interceptions, 150 yards passing.  All told that results in a QBR of 6.2 and a passer rating of 37.5.  I think this is a tape the Vikings just have to burn and hope it was a one off.

NFL Week 2 vs. Spread

Favorites 9 – 7
Season 18 – 14

Home 5 – 11
Season 11 – 920

Neutral Games – 1 (Team Listed Home is 1 – 0)

NFL Week 2 Straight Up

Favorites 11 – 5
Season 25 – 7

Home 7– 9
Season 15 – 16

Neutral Games – 1 (Underdog is 1 – 0)