NFL 2024 – WEEK 8 Power Ratings, Spreads & Predictions

NFL 2024 – WEEK 8 Power Ratings, Spreads & Predictions

The Algorithm rebounded from it’s horrendous 3 – 11 Week 6 , to go 6 – 8 – 1 in Week 7. That puts the season record at 51 – 52 – 4.  To adjust for the home team troubles in 2024, the home field advantage has been reduced from 3 points down to 2.5 points.

The Algorithm is producing lines very close to Vegas now, with the exception of teams with major injuries.  It has taken a lot of losses by picking teams who suffered a QB or major injuries.  The stats cannot show an injury for week after it happens(unless it is in the first week or two).  The team must play without the injured player(s), compile stats, and then their rating will start to reflect how they play without the injured player(s).

I am thinking of trying to introduce temprary ratings for teams that suffer major injuries.  It would use their generated power ratings since the injury as opposed to their season stats.  This is going to be a bit tricky to implement and it will introduce a tiny bit of subjectivity into what is supposed to be an objective algorithm.

For example, Tampa Bay lost both Evans and Godwin to injury.  Next week I can figure out the Tampa Bay rating for just week 8, and then try to use that value in week 9.  That temporary rating would include any/all weeks up to Evans return, at which time the Tampa Bay rating can go back to full season stats.  New Orleans(Carr), Cleveland(Watson), possibly Washington if the news is bad about Daniels.  Until then, please use extreme caution when going with any Algorithm pick involving teams with major recent injuries.

On a spread note, the Cincinnati vs Philadelphia game had to go to the 10,000th decimal place to decide a pick.  Cincinnati has a rating of 101.7584, Philadelphia a rating of 101.7584.  The spread is Cincinnati -2.5, and as mentioned above the home field advantage is 2.5 points.  Thus, by 1/10,000th of a point, the Algorithm is going with the Bengals in what has to be the lock of the year.

NFL 2024 Week 8 Picks

Season ATS – 51 – 52 – 4