Intrigued by the ineffeciency of the Bears offense last week when they had more punts(5) than total yards(4) in the first half vs the 49ers, I wondered what the race between each team’s punter and quarterback looked like in terms of yardage.  Once I had Punt / Pass stuck in my mind, the Kick part just came naturally.  Let’s see if this kid’s game can help us analyze NFL teams.

Punt/Pass Yardage

For QBs I used passing yardage and for punters I used gross yardage(as opposed to net yardage which is gross minus return yardage) since the average punter has kicked for less yardage(2364) than the average QB has thrown for(2835). My thought was this ratio would be a very basic measure of offensive effeciency. If your QB cannot throw for more yardage than your punter is kicking, your offense either needs a powerful run game, and/or a dominant defense.

Pass / FG Points

The other ratio is the amount of points produced by passing touchdowns vs the amount of points scored via field goals. This ratio should show whether an offense is having to settle for fields goals vs TDs. In order to see if it is the kicker who is screwing the pooch, the FG attempts & made % is included.

For each of these comparisons, there is a column showing the net value and the ratio. The Avg % column is simply that, the average of the Punt/Pass & Pass/Kick ratios.

The Lack Of Rushing & Defensive Data
The achilles heel is rushing is completely ignored except to use it as a indicator of what the other metrics can’t explain. A team could rely on a great run offense and good/great defense(and a few do), in which case these Punt/Pass/Kick metrics are going to paint them in a poor light. This is why I added some other base metrics (and rankings), to explain some of the wonkiness this chart may show.

Other Metrics

I also included Total Points (passing td + FG made), Total Rushing TDs, and Total Points Against values and ranks to help with analysis.

Punt/Pass/Kick Metrics

Let’s look at Cincinnati:

• Rank 5th in Pass/Punt Yardage at 163% (average 126%)
• Rank 1st in Pass/FG points ration at 367% (average 171%)
• Rank 1st in Avg % at 265% (average 49%)
• Rank 1st in Passing + FG points at 244 (average 179)
• Rank 24th with only 9 Rushing TDs (average 12.6)
• Rank 29th in Points Againts with 360 (average 297)
• Kicker has made only 75% of FGs (average 83.52%)

Great passing offense, below average rushing game, poor defense, and kicking woes. That seems like a fair one sentense summary of the Bengals season so far.

Let’s look at a team at the other end of the spectrum, the LA Chargers:

• Pass/Punt yardage ratio of 87% ranks 27th
• Pass/FG point ratio of 100% ranks 29th(They’ve score 84 pts via passing and 84 pts via FG)
• AVG % of 93.54% ranks 31st.
• Passing + FG points at 168 ranks 18th
• Rank 12th with 13 rushing TDs
• Rank 1st in Point Against at 207
• Kicker has made 93.3% of FGs

Below average passing game, average running game, great defense, and great kicker. The Chargers have been riding their defense and FG kicker so far.

Strangely, this ultra simple set of metrics seems to be painting very familiar pictures.  I am not going to go through the other 30 teams individually but here are just a few interesting takeaways:

• Since the average QB has thrown for over 2800 yards and the average punter has kicked for around 2300-2400 yards, any QB who’s passing yardage is flirting with punter yardage has accuracy issues, holds the ball, or is dinking and dunking.
• Since Pass/FG ratio is 171% on average, and 1 passing td(6 points) is worth 200% of a FG (3 points), a good QB should have 1 passing TD for every FG made.  Average QBs will have a few passing TDs less than FG made, and poor QBs will have down to about half as many passing TDs as FG made.
• Cleveland, Chicago, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, Carolina, Denver, Tennessee, New England, LA Chargers, & NY Giants all have Pass/Punt ratios under 100% (average 126%).  Denver (points against 4th) and the Chargers(PA rank 1st) are the outliers, the rest of the teams have noted QB issues.
• 49ers, Commanders, Cowboys, Cardinals, Raiders, Steelers, Texans, Patriots, Chargers & Giants all have Pass/FG ratios below 125% (average 171%).  These teams are struggling to turn scoring opportunites into passing TDS.  The Commanders are 3rd and Houston is 9th in Rushing TDs.  The Steelers (PA rank 5th) and aforementioned Chargers have stingy defenses.
• Houston, New England, LA Chargers & NY Giants are the only four teams with an AVG % below 100% (average 149%).  These teams struggle to move the ball through the air and settle for FGs.  Without good defensive play on the day, these teams will have trouble winning.