NFL 2023 – Week 17 – Free Picks Odds Lines Spreads Over Under Totals
NFL 2023 – Week 17 Picks
It is going to be a real coin flip this week on the picks, so please use your other sources and wisdom to bet any of these games based on the Algorithm. It is making more than half the picks based on tenths of points one way or another. The Algorithm’s hot streak has to end eventually and with the picks being so close this week, its going to take some doing to come out of the week .500 or better.
Just look at some of the teams it likes this week. But honestly you could look at last week, or the week before, and say the same thing so in for a penny, in for a pound. Go Silicone!
Week 16 Results – NFL 2023 – Week 16 Results
There are NINE games with the spread error of less than 1 point. THREE more games with errors between 1-2 points. ONE game between 2-3 points, TWO games between 3-4 points, and the highest error on the spread this week is a mere 4.25 points. It is like the Algorithm week to Vegas on Monday and didn’t tell anyone….again.
Then the kicker…The Algorithm is 24 – 16 -1 (60%) in games with opening line errors between 0.00 – 0.99 points. So basically the 41 times this season The Algorithm and Vegas agree on a spread(within 1 point), The Algorithm is on the correct side 60% of the time.
Just for fun, the Algortihm has calculated 198 game spreads. So it has been within one point of the Vegas spread 20.71% of the time, or 1 in 5 games. Not bad for an algorithm in year 1.
The totals have a bit more error to work with. The problem is, besides the past two weeks where the Algorithm has been in tune with the totals(24 – 8), it was basically shit on totals for about 8 weeks starting with the Attack of the Unders in weeks 6 & 7(it didnt start predicting totals until week 4 as opposed to week 3 for the first stats based spread picks).
Please note, the Algorithm picks are 100% stats based. It does not account for injuries, suspensions, weather, etc…Please use you handicapping skills to adjust the calculated lines as you see fit.
Season To Date
| Overall | 54.68% | 111 – 92 – 5 |
| Favorites | 60.00% | 57 – 38 – 3 |
| Underdogs | 50.00% | 54 – 54 – 2 |
| Home | 54.89% | 73 – 60 – 4 |
| Away | 54.29% | 38 – 32 – 1 |
| Over/Under | 47.89% | 91 – 99 – 2 |
| Over | 42.11% | 48 – 66 – 2 |
| Under | 56.58% | 43 – 33 |
As you can see by the percentages, for the season The Algorithm is best when picking Favorites & Unders, and is equally successful in Home & Away picks thus far. It splits on underdogs and is poor predicting overs. Over the past 6 weeks its been hitting everything at 58%+, including a blistering 23 – 6 on Away team picks.
In theory, this should be the way the Algorithm works; it should get more accurate as the season progresses because it has more stable statistics to use in its formula. If you look through the weekly Power Ratings, you will see they also get much more stable as the season progresses.
A huge move for a team’s power rating this late in the season is 1 point, and maybe 1 or 2 teams move that far each week. If you look back earlier in the season, several team power ratings could move 3+ points each week in week 6, and 2+ points in week 10. Now the majority of teams move a few tenths of a point in either direction each week.
The downside to all this is teams resting starters in week 18. The Algorithm would be completely blind to this and could have an awful week depending on the players and effort on the field in week 18. Thankfully everyone has to play in week 17, but there are a few significant injuries to be aware of. Remember the Algorithm is 100% stat base and does not take injuries into account(or suspensions, weather, etc).
Algorithm After Week 10.
| Overall | 53 – 62 – 3 |
| Favorites | 28 – 23 – 2 |
| Underdogs | 25 – 39 – 1 |
| Home | 38 – 36 – 2 |
| Away | 15 – 26 – 1 |
| Over/Under | 39 – 62 – 1 |
| Over | 18 – 45- 1 |
| Under | 21 – 17 |
The Algorithm Past 6 Weeks
| Overall | 65.91% | 58 – 30 – 2 |
| Favorites | 65.91% | 29 – 15 -1 |
| Underdogs | 65.91% | 29 – 15 -1 |
| Home | 59.32% | 35 – 24 – 2 |
| Away | 79.31% | 23 – 6 |
| Over/Under | 58.42% | 52 – 37 – 1 |
| Over | 58.82% | 30 – 21 – 1 |
| Under | 57.89% | 22 – 16 |
New York Jets vs Cleveland Browns Odds
| MATCHUP | SPREAD | TOTAL | MONEYLINE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Browns vs Jets |
-7 (-110) +7 (-110) |
o35.5 (-115) u35.5 (-105) |
-340 +275 |
- Opening point spread: Browns -7
- Opening total: Over/Under 35.5 points scored
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET Thursday (Prime)
- Calculated Line: Browns -7.76
- Opening Line Error: 0.76
- Tues Line Error: 0.76
- Estimated Over/Under Total: 29.93
- Opening Over/Under Error: 5.57
- Tues Over/Under Error: 5.57
Detroit Lions vs Dallas Cowboys Odds
| MATCHUP | SPREAD | TOTAL | MONEYLINE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys vs Lions |
-6 (-110) +6 (-110) |
o53.5 (-110) u53.5 (-110) |
-270 +220 |
- Opening point spread: Cowboys -5.5
- Opening total: Over/Under 52.5 points scored
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET Saturday (ABC/ESPN)
- Calculated Line: Cowboys -6.21
- Opening Line Error: 0.71
- Tues Line Error: 0.21
- Estimated Over/Under Total: 50.21
- Opening Over/Under Error: 2.29
- Tues Over/Under Error: 3.29
Miami Dolphins vs Baltimore Ravens Odds
| MATCHUP | SPREAD | TOTAL | MONEYLINE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens vs Dolphins |
-3.5 (-115) +3.5 (-105) |
o47 (-110) u47 (-110) |
-186 +156 |
- Opening point spread: Ravens -3
- Opening total: Over/Under 46.5 points scored
- Time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday (CBS)
- Calculated Line: Ravens -2.70
- Opening Line Error: 0.30
- Tues Line Error: 0.80
- Estimated Over/Under Total: 44.92
- Opening Over/Under Error: 1.58
- Tues Over/Under Error: 2.08
New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Odds
| MATCHUP | SPREAD | TOTAL | MONEYLINE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers vs Saints |
-2.5 (-120) +2.5 (-102) |
o42 (-110) u42 (-110) |
-152 +128 |
- Opening point spread: Buccaneers -2.5
- Opening total: Over/Under 42 points scored
- Time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday (FOX)
- Calculated Line: Bucs -1.16
- Opening Line Error: 1.34
- Tues Line Error: 1.34
- Estimated Over/Under Total: 43.93
- Opening Over/Under Error: 1.93
- Tues Over/Under Error: 1.93
San Francisco 49ers vs Washington Commanders Odds
| MATCHUP | SPREAD | TOTAL | MONEYLINE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders vs 49ers |
+13.5 (-110) -13.5 (-110) |
o48.5 (-105) u48.5 (-115) |
+610 -900 |
- Opening point spread: 49ers -13.5
- Opening total: Over/Under 48.5 points scored
- Time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday (FOX)
- Calculated Line: 49ers -10.82
- Opening Line Error: 2.68
- Tues Line Error: 2.68
- Estimated Over/Under Total: 49.09
- Opening Over/Under Error: 0.59
- Tues Over/Under Error: 0.59
Arizona Cardinals vs Philadelphia Eagles Odds
| MATCHUP | SPREAD | TOTAL | MONEYLINE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles vs Cardinals |
-10.5 (-104) +10.5 (-118) |
o48 (-110) u48 (-110) |
-650 +480 |
- Opening point spread: Eagles -9.5
- Opening total: Over/Under 48 points scored
- Time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday (FOX)
- Calculated Line: Eagles -9.23
- Opening Line Error: 0.27
- Tues Line Error: 1.27
- Estimated Over/Under Total: 49.26
- Opening Over/Under Error: 1.26
- Tues Over/Under Error: 1.26
New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Odds
| MATCHUP | SPREAD | TOTAL | MONEYLINE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bills vs Patriots |
-11.5 (-112) +11.5 (-108) |
o40.5 (-110) u40.5 (-110) |
-750 +530 |
- Opening point spread: Bills -10.5
- Opening total: Over/Under 40.5 points scored
- Time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday (CBS)
- Calculated Line: Bills -9.90
- Opening Line Error: 0.60
- Tues Line Error: 1.60
- Estimated Over/Under Total: 41.90
- Opening Over/Under Error: 1.40
- Tues Over/Under Error: 1.40
Los Angeles Rams vs New York Giants Odds
| MATCHUP | SPREAD | TOTAL | MONEYLINE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Giants vs Rams |
+6.5 (-115) -6.5 (-105) |
o42 (-110) u42 (-110) |
+225 -275 |
- Opening point spread: Rams -6.5
- Opening total: Over/Under 42 points scored
- Time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday (FOX)
- Calculated Line: Rams -5.39
- Opening Line Error: 1.11
- Tues Line Error: 1.11
- Estimated Over/Under Total: 43.15
- Opening Over/Under Error: 1.15
- Tues Over/Under Error: 1.15
Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans Odds
| MATCHUP | SPREAD | TOTAL | MONEYLINE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texans vs Titans |
-3.5 (-110) +3.5 (-110) |
o42.5 (-110) u42.5 (-110) |
-184 +154 |
- Opening point spread: Texans -4
- Opening total: Over/Under 43 points scored
- Time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday (FOX)
- Calculated Line: Texans -4.71
- Opening Line Error: 0.71
- Tues Line Error: 1.21
- Estimated Over/Under Total: 46.04
- Opening Over/Under Error: 3.04
- Tues Over/Under Error: 3.54
Atlanta Falcons vs Chicago Bears Odds
| MATCHUP | SPREAD | TOTAL | MONEYLINE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bears vs Falcons |
-3 (-105) +3 (-115) |
o37.5 (-115) u37.5 (-105) |
-162 +136 |
- Opening point spread: Bears -3
- Opening total: Over/Under 37.5 points scored
- Time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday (CBS)
- Calculated Line: Bears -1.05
- Opening Line Error: 1.95
- Tues Line Error: 1.95
- Estimated Over/Under Total: 40.01
- Opening Over/Under Error: 2.51
- Tues Over/Under Error: 2.51
Las Vegas Raiders vs Indianapolis Colts Odds
| MATCHUP | SPREAD | TOTAL | MONEYLINE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colts vs Raiders |
-3 (-110) +3 (-110) |
o44.5 (-110) u44.5 (-110) |
-158 +134 |
- Opening point spread: Colts -3.5
- Opening total: Over/Under 43.5 points scored
- Time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday (CBS)
- Calculated Line: Colts -3.80
- Opening Line Error: 0.30
- Tues Line Error: 0.80
- Estimated Over/Under Total: 41.49
- Opening Over/Under Error: 2.01
- Tues Over/Under Error: 3.01
Carolina Panthers vs Jacksonville Jaguars Odds
| MATCHUP | SPREAD | TOTAL | MONEYLINE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars vs Panthers |
-7 (-105) +7 (-115) |
o38.5 (-105) u38.5 (-115) |
-290 +235 |
- Opening point spread: Jaguars -7
- Opening total: Over/Under 38.5 points scored
- Time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday (CBS)
- Calculated Line: Jaguars -7.35
- Opening Line Error: 0.35
- Tues Line Error: 0.35
- Estimated Over/Under Total: 37.64
- Opening Over/Under Error: 0.86
- Tues Over/Under Error: 0.86
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Seattle Seahawks Odds
| MATCHUP | SPREAD | TOTAL | MONEYLINE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks vs Steelers |
-3.5 (-105) +3.5 (-115) |
o41.5 (-105) u41.5 (-115) |
-174 +144 |
- Opening point spread: Seahawks -3.5
- Opening total: Over/Under 40.5 points scored
- Time: 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday (FOX)
- Calculated Line: Seahawks -3.16
- Opening Line Error: 0.34
- Tues Line Error: 0.34
- Estimated Over/Under Total: 44.07
- Opening Over/Under Error: 3.57
- Tues Over/Under Error: 2.57
Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs Odds
| MATCHUP | SPREAD | TOTAL | MONEYLINE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs vs Bengals |
-7 (-110) +7 (-110) |
o44.5 (-110) u44.5 (-110) |
-330 +265 |
- Opening point spread: Chiefs -7.5
- Opening total: Over/Under 45.5 points scored
- Time: 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday (CBS)
- Calculated Line: Chiefs -10.19
- Opening Line Error: 2.69
- Tues Line Error: 3.19
- Estimated Over/Under Total: 44.20
- Opening Over/Under Error: 1.30
- Tues Over/Under Error: 0.30
Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos Odds
| MATCHUP | SPREAD | TOTAL | MONEYLINE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos vs Chargers |
-5.5 (-110) +5.5 (-110) |
o38.5 (-108) u38.5 (-112) |
-245 +200 |
- Opening point spread: Broncos -5.5
- Opening total: Over/Under 38.5 points scored
- Time: 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday (CBS)
- Calculated Line: Broncos -2.32
- Opening Line Error: 3.18
- Tues Line Error: 3.18
- Estimated Over/Under Total: 46.55
- Opening Over/Under Error: 8.05
- Tues Over/Under Error: 8.05
Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings Odd
| MATCHUP | SPREAD | TOTAL | MONEYLINE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings vs Packers |
-1.5 (-115) +1.5 (-105) |
o46.5 (-105) u46.5 (-115) |
-130 +110 |
- Opening point spread: Vikings -1.5
- Opening total: Over/Under 45.5 points scored
- Time: 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday (NBC)
- Calculated Line: Vikings -5.75
- Opening Line Error:4.25
- Tues Line Error: 4.25
- Estimated Over/Under Total: 46.95
- Opening Over/Under Error: 1.45
- Tues Over/Under Error: 0.45
