NFL 2023 Awards – Coach of the Year

Time to hand out the Coach of the Year Award.  Like all things here, we are going to try to do it based on statistics.  Let’s start with the NFL 2023 Coach of the Year Contenders.  I have the list down to six:

Coach of the Year Contenders

• John Harbaugh – Baltimore Ravens
• Kevin Stefanski – Cleveland Browns
• Dan Campbell – Detroit Lions
• DeMeco Ryans – Houston Texans
• Sean McVay – Los Angeles Rams
• Kyle Shanahan – San Francisco 49ers

Now let’s run each coach through some metrics to see who did the best job this year.

Preseason Vegas Win Totals & Superbowl Odds

Houston scored 10 wins against an expectation of 6.5.  They are in the playoffs with a chance to pay off their 200 -1 Superbowl Odds.  The Rams had the same expectations(6.5) and results(10 wins), exceeding predicted wins by 3.5, same as the Texans.  The Ravens & Lions both exceeded expectations by 2.5 games.  The Lions won 12 games on a predicted 9.5, and the Ravens won 13 on a predicted 10.5.   Cleveland and San Fran both exceeded expectations by 1.5 games.

• John Harbaugh – 3.5
• Kevin Stefanski – 5.5
• Dan Campbell – 3.5
• DeMeco Ryans – 1.5
• Sean McVay – 1.5
• Kyle Shanahan – 5.5

Team Power Ratings 2023 vs 2022

The Texans showed the biggest gains in power ratings between 2022 and 2023.  They went from dead last in 2022 with a rating of 92.59, all the way up to 13th in 2023 with a rating of 100.49.  The Ravens showed a gain of 7.33 points, raising from 9th in 2022 to 2nd in 2023.  The Rams showed a gain of just over 5 points, up from 96.93(28th) in 2022 to 101.95(8th) in 2023.  Detroit just up from 12th in 2022 to 7th in 2023.  The Browns moved up from 13th to 9th.  The 49ers held serve rising from the 2nd ranked team in 2022 to #1 in 2023.

This is a tough ranking to call because it is a matter of whether you think it is more difficult to rise from the bottom up to the mid tier, from mid tier to top tier, or whether it is more difficult to maintain a high level.

• John Harbaugh – 2
• Kevin Stefanski – 5
• Dan Campbell – 4
• DeMeco Ryans – 1
• Sean McVay – 3
• Kyle Shanahan – 6

Most Injured Players & IR Cap Space

I don’t have the full list of players and salaries to guide this section so I will just have to go by totals.  It appears as if the Browns were most affected by injuries to big players, while Houston was affected by a rash of injuries to players with lower salaries.  The Rams and 49ers have stayed relatively healthy.  Baltimore and Detroit probably have suffered whatever an average amount of injuries amounts to.

• John Harbaugh – 3
• Kevin Stefanski – 1
• Dan Campbell – 4
• DeMeco Ryans – 2
• Sean McVay – 6
• Kyle Shanahan – 5

NFL Coach of the Year Final Scores

Lower is going to be better in this scoring system.  I broke the tie in the final rankings between Stefanski & Campbell.  Here are the final totals:

• John Harbaugh – 8.5
• Kevin Stefanski – 11.5
• Dan Campbell – 11.5
• DeMeco Ryans – 4.5
• Sean McVay – 10.5
• Kyle Shanahan – 16.5

That leads to a final ranking of:

1. DeMeco Ryans
2. John Harbaugh
3. Sean McVay
4. Kevin Stefanski
5. Dan Campbell
6. Kyle Shanahan

Congratulation to DeMeco Ryans and the Houston Texans for an outstanding year.  Going from the lowest ranked team to 13th in 2023 while dealing with a plague of injuries and a roster full of rookies, the Texans exceeded all expectation for 2023.  Ryans is a deserving winner and has set up Houston to be a contender for years to come.