2025 NFL Week 7 Free Game Picks – Spreads – Teams – Power Ratings – Vegas Line Errors
2025 NFL Week 7 Picks & Predictions
The Algorithm dropped it into neutral in week 6 going a pedestrian 7 – 8. Indianapolis maintains the #1 spot in the power ratings and The Algorithm is rolling with them again this week despite not covering in the win against Arizona.
The Algorithm still hates the Eagles, but to even a higher degree of disgruntleness. Philadelphia has to start playing up to their potential but the power ratings have them as the 22nd best team; Two above the Giants, and two BELOW the Cowboys(Washington is in 13th).
Vegas has Philadelphia as a 1.5 point road favorite in Minnesota. The Vikings are playing a bit of QB roulette right each week, and I think the Eagles would be happy to see a sack friendly Wentz behind center. The Eagles just got whacked by 17 by the G-men on the road, and something is just not right with that offensive line.
To install them as road favorites seems a bit optimistic, but Vegas wasn’t built on winners. Let’s see if the bookies are back on their game in week 8.
Week 6 Against The Spread 7 – 8
2025 Season 49 – 44
Algorithm Lifetime Record
2025: 49 – 44 (52.69%)
2024: 136 -128 – 8 (51.52%)
2023: 127 -103 – 10 (55.22%)
Lifetime: 312 – 275 – 18 (53.15%)
2025 NFL Week 7 Free Game Picks – Spreads – Teams – Power Ratings – Vegas Line Errors
Week 7 Line Error Picks
There are two games on the week 7 schedule with line errors of 4 points or more. Be sure to check injuries reports and weather before betting blindly on statistics. The line error in the Eagles game is the largest of 2025 at a whopping 8.42 points.
There has been only one 7+ point line error this season, and that was last week when the Giants beat the Eagles. So the Algorithm is putting it’s perfect 1 – 0 record on line by doubling down against the Birds in back to back weeks.
There is no drama in sport quite like Silicon vs Sharp.
Minnesota (1.5) – 8.42 points
Las Vegas (+12.5) – 4.32 points
Indianapolis (+1.5) – 4.51 points
The NFLlines.com Algorithm
The NFL Lines Algorithm uses the current season NFL stats to generate power ratings for each team. Then it uses the power ratings to predict games against the Las Vegas Spread. Home teams are awarded 2.5 points for home field advantage.
Vegas spread is the line on the game. It is relative to the home team.
- A Vegas spread listed as negative means the home team is favored.
- A Vegas spread listed as positive means the home team is an underdog.
The difference between the Algorithm’s point spread and the Vegas point spread is the spread error.
- A negative spread error means the Algorithm likes the home team.
- A positive spread error means the Algortihm favors the away team.
NFL Week 6 vs. Spread
Favorites 6 – 9
Season 44 – 49
Home 8 – 6 – 1
Season 37 – 52
Neutral Games – 4 (Team Listed Home is 3 – 1)
NFL Week 6 Straight Up
Favorites 10 – 5
Season 58 – 34 – 1
Home 9 – 5 – 1
Season 50 – 39
Neutral Games – 4 (Underdog is 2 – 2)
The Algorithm bases all team power ratings and game picks on statistics only.
- The Algorithm cannot see weather.
- The Algorithm cannot see injuries.
- The Algorithm cannot see roster moves.
- The Algorithm cannot see momentum, karma, or desire.
Accumulated Stats Don’t Change Due To Injury
The Algorithm cannot do this because the statistics from last week and the week before don’t change because someone was injured.
In theory, the stats were impacted by their absence. But if you have 10 weeks of stats with a QB playing and then he is hurt in week 11, the stats of that week 11 game when blended in with the other 10 games are not diminished enough to show the true loss in team power rating.
This is why this warning is posted frequently during the season along with this advice: You should other handicapping sources and statistics in addition to The Algorithm’s ratings and picks before wagering on any of The Algorithm’s selections.
