2025 NFL Week 5 Free Game Picks – Spreads – Teams – Power Ratings – Vegas Line Errors
2025 NFL Week 5 Picks & Predictions
The Algorithm dropped the ball in week 4, going a pedestrian like 7 – 9. Starting in week 5, all team power ratings are generated from solely 2025 stats. As a result, all picks and selections are also based on only 2025 stats.
Week 4 Against The Spread 7 – 9
2025 Season 34 – 30
Algorithm Lifetime Record
2025: 34 – 30 (53.16%)
2024: 136 -128 – 8 (51.52%)
2023: 127 -103 – 10 (55.22%)
Lifetime: 297 – 261 – 18 (53.23%)
2025 NFL Week 5 Free Game Picks – Spreads – Teams – Power Ratings – Vegas Line Errors
Week 5 Line Error Picks
Denver – 6.28 point error
Carolina – 5.72 point error
Jacksonville – 5.58 point errer
NY Jets – 4.82 point error
There are four games on the week 5 schedule with line errors of 4 points or more. Be sure to check injuries reports and weather before betting blindly on statistics.
The NFLlines.com Algorithm
The NFL Lines Algorithm uses the current season NFL stats to generate power ratings for each team. Then it uses the power ratings to predict games against the Las Vegas Spread. Home teams are awarded 2.5 points for home field advantage.
Vegas spread is the line on the game. It is relative to the home team.
- A Vegas spread listed as negative means the home team is favored.
- A Vegas spread listed as positive means the home team is an underdog.
The difference between the Algorithm’s point spread and the Vegas point spread is the spread error.
- A negative spread error means the Algorithm likes the home team.
- A positive spread error means the Algortihm favors the away team.
NFL Week 4 vs. Spread
Favorites 6 – 10
Season 33 – 31
Home 5 – 10 – 1
Season 25 – 37
Neutral Games – 2 (Team Listed Home is 2 – 0)
NFL Week 4 Straight Up
Favorites 6 – 9 – 1
Season 43 – 20 – 1
Home 10 – 5 – 1
Season 37 – 25
Neutral Games – 2 (Underdog is 2 – 0)
The Algorithm bases all team power ratings and game picks on statistics only.
- The Algorithm cannot see weather.
- The Algorithm cannot see injuries.
- The Algorithm cannot see roster moves.
- The Algorithm cannot see momentum, karma, or desire.
Accumulated Stats Don’t Change Due To Injury
The Algorithm cannot do this because the statistics from last week and the week before don’t change because someone was injured.
In theory, the stats were impacted by their absence. But if you have 10 weeks of stats with a QB playing and then he is hurt in week 11, the stats of that week 11 game when blended in with the other 10 games are not diminished enough to show the true loss in team power rating.
This is why this warning is posted frequently during the season along with this advice: You should other handicapping sources and statistics in addition to The Algorithm’s ratings and picks before wagering on any of The Algorithm’s selections.
